基于MARKAL-MACRO模型的中国碳交易市场交易与定价基础研究

发布时间：2018-01-11 03:23

本文关键词：基于MARKAL-MACRO模型的中国碳交易市场交易与定价基础研究　出处：《东北财经大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：2008年之后,中国超过美国,成为世界上CO2排放量最多的国家,作为《京都议定书》下非附件Ⅰ国家,利用市场手段促进我国减排已经成为国际上不可逆转的方向,构建我国碳交易市场既是当前国家政策法规的要求,也是与国际碳交易市场接轨的必经之路。综合国家政策、不同地区工业产值比重、能源消费结构及区域CO2历史排放量等因素,我国碳交易市场应按照先区域,后全国的顺序,2011年11月,率先在北京、天津、上海、重庆、湖北、广东及深圳7省市建立碳排放权交易试点。2013年6月18日,深圳市排放权交易试点已经启动使用,预计2013年年底其余6省市的交易试点工作将全面启动。2013年10月24日,国家发改委应对气候变化司推出自愿减排交易信息平台,CCER注册登记簿系统预计将会在2014年上半年上线,这标志着中国CCER(核证自愿减排量)的交易迈出了实质性的一步,也是中国碳交易市场发展的一个里程碑一步。预计到2015年左右,我国将建成遍及全国统一的碳交易市场。然而建设中国碳交易市场的最大难题在于确定碳配额以及如何分配配额。按照市场功能碳交易市场可以分为碳排放权配额的初始分配的一级市场和碳排放权自行交易的二级市场。在交易市场中,配额总量决定着市场配额总供给量,而配额总量的确定的前提是要确定碳排放量。一级市场在此基础上为不同行业和企业分配配额,交易市场配额的稀缺性进一步影响了其交易的价格。于是本文利用MARKAL-MACRO非线性动态规划模型把经济系统中GDP、经济增长率、人口数量、资本存量、劳动投入量等数据和能源系统中电力行业、炼油行业、焦炭行业、洗煤行业、石油石化行业、煤制油行业、煤制气行业、煤加工等行业的数据结合一起,将经济系统和能源系统看作统一的实体,在系统贴现效率最大化的条件下,计算出2015～2050年全国CO2排放总量,为中国碳交易市场的碳配额的确定提供数据参考,另一方面,参考当前国际上主要的碳交易市场,针对我国碳交易市场的现状和存在的问题,明确了我国碳交易市场的交易场所、交易产品、交易机制、交易价格形成机制、监管机制等要素。本文结构安排如下：第一章阐述文章的研究意义、文献综述、研究内容和创新点以及不足之处；第二部分主要介绍了当前国际上主要的碳交易市场；第三部分是MARKAL-MACRO模型的介绍和应用及结果分析；第四部分主要讨论中国碳交易市场构建研究,分析当前中国交易市场的现状以及对构建中国碳交易市场的提出一些建议。此外,本文采用的数据来源于2003-2012年的相关年鉴,使计算结果更具有现实意义。当然,本文亦存在不足之处,由于文章中数据可得性有限,因此在模型计算过程中,进行了许多假设,这也使得计算出来的数据与实际的数据有一定的出入。
[Abstract]:After 2008, China overtook the United States to become the world's largest CO2 emitter, as a non-Annex I country under the Kyoto Protocol. Using market means to promote China's emission reduction has become an irreversible direction in the world. The construction of China's carbon trading market is not only the requirement of current national policies and regulations, but also the only way to connect with the international carbon trading market. Comprehensive national policies, the proportion of industrial output value in different regions, energy consumption structure and regional CO2 historical emissions and other factors, China's carbon trading market should be in the order of the first region, then the national order, November 2011. It has taken the lead in setting up carbon emissions trading pilot in Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Chongqing, Hubei, Guangdong and Shenzhen. In June 18th 2013, Shenzhen emission trading pilot has been launched. It is expected that at the end of 2013, the other 6 provinces and cities will start trading pilot work in full. On October 24th 2013, the National Development and Reform Commission launched a voluntary emission reduction trading information platform for the Department of Climate change. The CCER registry system is expected to be launched in the first half of 2014, marking a substantial step forward in the trade of China's CCERs (certified voluntary emission reductions). It is also a milestone in the development of China's carbon trading market. It is expected that by 2015, China will have a unified carbon trading market all over the country. However, the biggest problem in building China's carbon trading market is to determine carbon quotas and how to allocate them. According to market function, carbon trading market can be divided into primary market and carbon emission rights market. A secondary market for trading. In a trading market. The total quantity of quota determines the total supply of market quota, and the premise of determining the total quantity of quota is to determine the carbon emission. On this basis, the primary market allocates quotas for different industries and enterprises. The scarcity of the quota in the trading market further affects the price of the transaction. So this paper uses the MARKAL-MACRO nonlinear dynamic programming model to analyze the economic growth rate in the economic system. Population, capital stock, labor input and other data and energy systems in the power industry, oil refining industry, coke industry, coal washing industry, petroleum and petrochemical industry, coal oil industry, coal gas industry. Combined with the data of coal processing and other industries, the economic system and energy system are regarded as a unified entity. Under the condition of maximizing the discount efficiency of the system, the total amount of CO2 emissions in the whole country from 2015 to 2050 is calculated. On the other hand, referring to the main international carbon trading market, aiming at the current situation and existing problems of China's carbon trading market. The trading place, trading products, trading mechanism, price formation mechanism and supervision mechanism of carbon trading market in China are clarified. The structure of this paper is as follows: the first chapter describes the significance of the article, literature review, research content and innovation, as well as shortcomings; The second part mainly introduces the main international carbon trading market; The third part is the introduction, application and result analysis of MARKAL-MACRO model. Part 4th mainly discusses the construction of China's carbon trading market, analyzes the current situation of China's carbon trading market and puts forward some suggestions for the construction of China's carbon trading market. In addition, the data used in this paper come from the relevant yearbooks of 2003-2012, which makes the results more practical. Of course, there are some shortcomings in this paper, because of the limited availability of data in the paper. Therefore, many assumptions are made in the process of model calculation, which makes the calculated data and the actual data somewhat different.
【学位授予单位】：东北财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F224;F124.5;F832.5

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