我国主板上市公司财务危机预警模型研究

发布时间：2018-01-15 19:44

本文关键词：我国主板上市公司财务危机预警模型研究　出处：《江西理工大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：本文旨在构建财务危机预警模型以帮助我国沪深两市主板上市公司规避与化解潜在或可能的财务危机提供指导。论文首先对国内外学者关于财务危机的界定与财务危机预警模型研究的相关文献进行了回顾。在此基础上,将受到特别处理(*ST)或其他特别处理(ST)的上市公司作为本文的研究样本。其次,确定了一定原则来选取研究样本与构建指标体系。利用研究样本不同时点的相关财务数据,运用主成分分析法,分别建立了T-1、T-2、T-3、T-4年的财务危机预警模型。通过检验、分析与比较发现：所建立的T-1、T-2、T-3、T-4年的财务危机预警模型在预测上市公司在相应年份是否会陷入财务危机方面具有较强的预测能力,特别是T-1年预警模型对测试上市公司在1年后是否会陷入财务危机即是否会被*ST或ST的准确率高达96.3%,T-2年预警模型对测试上市公司在2年后是否会陷入财务危机即是否会被*ST或ST的准确率为83.33%,T-3年预警模型对测试上市公司在3年后是否会陷入财务危机即是否会被*ST或ST的准确率为72.22%；T-4年预警模型对测试上市公司在4年后是否会陷入财务危机即是否会被*ST或ST的准确率为61.11%；通过对T-1、T-2、T-3、T-4年的财务危机预警模型预测能力的推广发现：样本的选取、样本数据的差异、距离公司陷入财务危机的时间差异会对预警模型的预测的准确率产生影响。最后,引入相关的非财务指标对出现财务危机的上市公司进行相关的后续研究。分析其股权结构、董事会特征、高管激励、管理层代理问题以及审计意见的特征。基于非财务指标分析下,针对上市公司摆脱财务危机、撤销其退市风险警示提出可供参考与借鉴的建议是：保持稳定的董事会规模,维持合理的股权结构,妥善处理管理层代理问题,完善对高管的激励机制。
[Abstract]:The purpose of this paper is to construct an early warning model of financial crisis in order to help the listed companies of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets to avoid and resolve the potential or possible financial crisis. First of all, the paper reviews the domestic and foreign scholars on the definition of financial crisis and financial crisis early warning model of the relevant literature review. On this basis. Listed companies subject to special treatment (St) or other special treatment (STS) will be used as a sample of this study. Secondly, certain principles are determined to select research samples and build an index system. Using the relevant financial data at different time points of the research samples, and using the principal component analysis method, the T-1T ~ (2) T ~ (2) T _ (3) is established respectively. T-4 financial crisis early warning model. Through testing, analysis and comparison, it is found that the T-1T ~ (2) T ~ (2) T ~ (3) is established. T-4 financial crisis warning model has a strong ability to predict whether listed companies will fall into financial crisis in the corresponding year. In particular, the accuracy of T-1 year early warning model in testing whether listed companies will fall into financial crisis in a year or not is as high as 96.3%. The accuracy of T-2 year warning model is 83.33% to test whether the listed company will fall into financial crisis after 2 years. The accuracy of T-3 year early warning model for testing whether the listed company will fall into financial crisis after 3 years is 72.22%. The accuracy of T-4 year early warning model is 61.11 to test whether the listed company will fall into financial crisis after 4 years. Through the promotion of the prediction ability of the financial crisis early warning model in T-1 / T ~ (2) T ~ (2) T ~ (3) and T ~ (3) T _ 4 years, it is found that the selection of samples and the difference of sample data. The time difference between the time the company falls into a financial crisis affects the accuracy of the prediction of the early warning model. Finally, the introduction of relevant non-financial indicators of listed companies in financial crisis related to follow-up research. Analysis of its equity structure, board characteristics, executive incentives. Based on the analysis of non-financial indicators, this paper aims at getting rid of the financial crisis of listed companies. The recommendations for reference are to maintain the size of the board of directors, to maintain a reasonable ownership structure, to properly deal with the problem of management agency, and to improve the incentive mechanism for senior executives.
【学位授予单位】：江西理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F275;F832.51;F224

【参考文献】