中国资本账户开放与金融风险互动研究

发布时间：2018-01-19 14:17

本文关键词： 资本账户开放外汇市场风险银行系统风险资产泡沫风险　出处：《华东师范大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：经济、金融一体化趋势推进全球经济迅速发展和各国金融开放,但同时也加剧了各国金融风险甚至金融危机发生概率。1997年东南亚金融危机和2008年全球金融危机的发生,使得政府一直对资本账户开放采取较为谨慎的态度,中国的资本账户开放进程也一再受到危机的影响而放缓。随着中国国际化程度的提高及人民币国际化进程的加速,开放人民币资本账户成为一种必然趋势,但如何控制好国内金融风险,有效地防范金融危机的发生,安全实现资本账户开放带来的利益成为中国学术界和决策层必须要考虑的问题。为此,本文深入研究资本账户开放与金融风险的互动关系,选取外汇市场风险、银行系统风险和资产泡沫风险三类金融风险,在理论和实证上验证了中国资本账户开放与这三类金融风险的互动关系。本文的主要内容是：第一章主要阐述选题背景、意义和研究内容、方法等；第二章一方面介绍本文基本概念,另一方对资本账户开放与金融风险关系的相关文献进行述评；第三章描述中国资本账户开放和三类金融风险现状,并分析两者互动关系机制；第四章对中国资本账户开放与三类金融风险的互动关系做实证分析。实证结论是：资本账户开放水平越高,越容易加剧国内外汇市场风险、银行系统风险与资产泡沫风险；而外汇市场风险、银行系统风险与资产泡沫风险的加剧反过来又会延缓资本账户开放进程。本文的主要贡献在于,将宏观金融风险的范围限定,只选取三类主要的金融风险即外汇市场风险、银行系统风险和资产泡沫风险作为研究对象,然后分别将其量化,同时将资本账户开放程度量化,将两者之间进行实证分析。但从理论上看,本文的研究并没有基于一个系统理论模型,对资本账户开放与三类金融风险互动关系进行推导,理论说服力不够；从方法上看,对三类风险指数的构建依赖借鉴国内外文献的方法,较少结合我国具体的实际情况对指数测算公式进行改进。
[Abstract]:The economic trend of financial integration, to promote the rapid development of the global economy and international financial openness, but at the same time also increased the probability of.1997 occurrence of financial risk even financial crisis in the Southeast Asian financial crisis and the 2008 global financial crisis, the government has to open the capital account to take a more cautious attitude, China capital account liberalization also has been in crisis the effect of slow. With the improvement of the degree of internationalization and China to accelerate the process of internationalization of the RMB, the RMB capital account has become an inevitable trend, but how to control the financial risk of domestic, effectively prevent the occurrence of financial crisis, bring about safety of capital account liberalization become the interests of Chinese academics and policymakers must consider the problem this paper. Therefore, in-depth study of the interactive relationship between capital account liberalization and the financial risk, select foreign currencies The field of risk, the risk of bank system and the risk of a property bubble, three types of financial risk, in theory and practice to verify the relationship between capital account liberalization and Chinese of these three types of financial risk.
The main contents of this paper are: the first chapter describes the background, significance and research contents and methods; the second chapter introduces the basic concepts of this paper on the one hand, the other party related literature on capital account liberalization and financial risk relationship are reviewed; the third chapter describes the Chinese capital account opening and the three kinds of financial risk status, and analysis the mechanism of the relationship between interaction; the fourth chapter of Chinese interaction between capital account liberalization and three types of financial risk do the empirical analysis. The conclusion is: the higher the level of capital account liberalization, more easily exacerbate the domestic foreign exchange market risk, the risk of bank system and asset bubble risk; foreign exchange market risk, the risk of bank system and the risk of asset bubbles increase in turn will delay the opening of capital account.
The main contribution of this paper is the scope of macro financial risk is limited, only selected the three main types of financial risk is the risk of foreign exchange market, the banking system risk and asset bubble risk as the research object, and then to quantify the degree of capital account openness between quantitative empirical analysis. But from the view of theory in this paper, the research is not a system based on the model, to derive the capital account opening and the three kinds of financial risk interaction, theory is not convincing enough; in terms of the method, three kinds of risk index of the construction depends on the reference method of literature at home and abroad, combining the actual situation of our country is less specific to improve the index calculation formula.

【学位授予单位】：华东师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.5

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