我国居民住宅财富效应研究

发布时间：2018-01-20 16:05

本文关键词： 住宅财富效应消费流动性约束倒U型表现　出处：《宁波大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：住宅财富效应是指住宅价格变化对居民消费支出的影响。本文针对当前我国住宅价格快速上涨和内需不振的现实状况，在综述现有国内外关于住宅财富效应研究文献的基础上，以资产价格波动引起的财富效应角度梳理了消费理论的发展脉络，依次从完善市场下的住宅财富效应传导渠道、非完善市场下的流动性约束效应、住宅财富效应倒U型表现三个层次阐述了住宅财富效应的传导机制，并利用我国1999-2010年期间31个省、市、自治区面板数据进行实证检验。本文得到以下四点结论：第一，住宅价格上涨对有房者的促进消费作用和对无房者的抑制作用是不可抵消的，实证结果表明我国住宅价格上涨对消费支出具有显著的促进作用，住宅价格上涨1个单位能带来0.0283的消费增量。我国居民住宅自有率较高，因此，“创造条件让更多群众拥有财产性收入”是一项非常正确的拉动内需的长期性政策。第二，，外部金融市场不发达是造成外部流动性约束的重要原因。众所周知，金融市场越发达，外部流动性约束越小。实证结果表明，我国外部流动性约束越小的区域，住宅财富效应越大，也就是说住宅财富效应存在外部流动性约束。第三、家庭内部流动性资产配置将影响到内部流动性约束。传统观点认为当家庭内部拥有足够的流动性资产时才有能力增加当前消费支出，而行为生命周期理论的观点是当家庭流动性资产不足时，住宅财富效应反而更大。实证结果表明我国储蓄水平越低即内部流动性约束越大的区域，住宅财富效应越大，因此符合行为生命周期视角下的内部流动性约束。第四，我国住宅财富效应符合倒U型表现。实证结果表明，住宅价格上涨对消费的影响存在一个从促进到抑制的过程，房价非理性上涨亦会损伤内需增长。最后文章以发挥我国住宅财富效应为目标，提出了发展住房金融市场、拓宽居民投资渠道、健全社会保障体系、建立谨防房价过高的住宅宏观调控机制的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Housing wealth effect refers to the impact of residential price changes on consumer expenditure. This paper aims at the current situation of rapid rise in housing prices and sluggish domestic demand in China. On the basis of summarizing the domestic and foreign research literature on housing wealth effect, this paper combs the development of consumption theory from the perspective of wealth effect caused by asset price fluctuation. In turn, the transmission mechanism of housing wealth effect is expounded from three levels: consummating the transmission channel of housing wealth effect under the market, the liquidity constraint effect under the imperfect market, and the reverse U-shaped performance of the housing wealth effect. Using the panel data of 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions from 1999 to 2010 in China. This paper draws the following four conclusions: first, the housing price rise on the promotion of housing consumption and the inhibition of the non-housing can not be offset. The empirical results show that China's housing price rise has a significant role in promoting consumer expenditure, one unit of housing price increase can bring 0.0283 consumption increment. "creating conditions for more people to own property income" is a very correct long-term policy to boost domestic demand. Second, the underdevelopment of external financial markets is an important cause of external liquidity constraints. The more developed the financial market, the smaller the external liquidity constraint. The empirical results show that the smaller the external liquidity constraints, the greater the housing wealth effect. That is to say, there are external liquidity constraints in the housing wealth effect. Third. The traditional view is that when the household has enough liquid assets, it is able to increase the current consumer spending. The behavioral life cycle theory holds that when the household liquidity assets are insufficient, the housing wealth effect is greater. The empirical results show that the lower the level of savings in China, the greater the internal liquidity constraints. The greater the housing wealth effect, the more consistent with the behavior life cycle perspective of internal liquidity constraints. 4th, China's housing wealth effect conforms to inverted U performance. The empirical results show that. The impact of housing price rise on consumption has a process from promotion to suppression, and irrational rise in house prices will also damage domestic demand growth. Finally, aiming at exerting the effect of our country's housing wealth, this paper proposes to develop the housing financial market, widen the investment channels of residents, and perfect the social security system. Set up guard against the housing macro-control mechanism of housing prices too high policy recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：宁波大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.23;F832.5

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