ST公司重组预测模型及其应用研究

发布时间：2018-02-03 19:38

本文关键词： ST公司重组 Logistic模型　出处：《南京大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：伴随着经济全球化进程,二十世纪末出现新一轮的以并购为主要特征的资产重组浪潮,成为世界产业结构调整的重要方式。而随着中国改革开放的不断推进,经济增长方式逐步转变,社会主义市场经济与全球经济的联系日益紧密,资产重组开始在我国出现。在1998年和2001年中国证监会先后颁布实施了《关于上市公司状况异常期间的股票特别处理方式的通知》和《亏损上市公司暂停上市和终止上市实施办法》之后,资产重组日益受到ST公司的重视,成为其摆脱困境的首选方法。资产重组具有其特有的优势：一方面从内部而言,有利于改善公司资产质量,提高企业资产经营运作效率,一定程度上实现管理协同、经营协同和财务协同效应；另一方面从外部而言,有利于扩大企业的市场份额,提高市场占有率,从而提高自身对市场的控制能力,最终增强企业盈利能力与竞争力,实现企业快速发展和社会资源的优化配置。尽管资产重组成为许多ST公司摆脱自身困境的首选方法,但是并非所有ST公司都会最终选择也适合采取重组摆脱困境。本文正是从供给方、需求方、共同作用方等角度来分析影响ST公司被重组概率的相关因素,建立ST公司重组预测模型,以判断在何种市场情况下何种特征的ST公司有可能进行重组,具有较高的被重组概率。其中供给方主要是从股权结构、壳资源价值、接受重组的迫切程度、终极控制人的能力等方面出发；需求方主要是指IPO市场状况的影响；地方政府的干预则是共同作用方,分为地方政府干预能力和地方政府干预意愿。通过选择以2004-2008年上交所A股市场的ST公司作为样本进行实证研究得出以下结论：ST公司壳资源价值、股权结构、接受重组的迫切程度、终极控制人等内部因素和政府干预等外部因素,与ST公司被重组的概率存在相关性。然后在此基础上利用未来年度ST公司实际重组情况进一步检测预测模型的正确本文分六个部分对ST公司重组预测模型及其应用进行研究：第一部分,绪论。首先论述了我国ST公司及其资产重组的特殊制度背景,以及中国证监会制定并实施了一系列资产重组相关法规,为上市公司资产重组提供法规指导。然后从理论和现实方面阐述本文的研究意义。最后交待了本文的研究思路,为后文的写作提纲一个总体框架。第二部分,文献综述。从资产重组的绩效、资产重组方式的界定、上市公司被ST的原因、影响ST公司被重组概率的因素方面进行了相关文献回顾。其中影响ST公司被重组概率的因素方面的文献回顾正是与本文建立的预测模型紧密相关,从股权结构、ST公司接受重组的迫切程度、终极控制人的影响、政府干预出发。第三部分,理论分析。从我国资产重组发展史和法律法规环境出发,介绍资产重组方式以及其对应的重组动因,通过效率理论、代理理论、信号传递理论、市场势力理论和企业快速发展理论,为本文研究提供理论基础。第四部分,影响ST公司重组的因素分析。从供给方、需求方、共同作用方等角度来分析影响ST公司被重组概率的相关因素,为下文建立ST公司重组预测模型提供依据。第五部分,实证分析。首先详细介绍了本文的变量设计、样本选取标准、数据来源,建立ST公司重组初步预测模型。然后通过对所选解释变量指标进行相关性分析,以及结合Logistic实证分析,对于模型进行修正,以建立最终的ST公司重组预测模型。然后在此基础上利用未来年度ST公司实际重组情况进一步检测预测模型的正确率。第六部分,本文结论及建议。该部分总结了本文的研究结论和提出相关政策建议,主要是ST公司应当从自身实际情况出发,努力提高自身的盈利能力、管理能力等方面管理效率,合理分析断自身是否适合选择资产重组道路,加强重组双方在人力、营销、管理、企业文化方面的整合,实现重组双方经营协同、财务协同效应的最大化,切实提高ST公司重组成功的质量。
[Abstract]:Along with the process of economic globalization , a new wave of assets reorganization taking M & A as the main feature at the end of the twentieth century has become an important way to adjust the world ' s industrial structure . Although asset restructuring has become the preferred method for many ST companies to get rid of their own difficulties , it is not all ST companies that will eventually choose to adopt restructuring . This paper analyzes the factors that affect ST company ' s restructuring probability from the angle of supplier , demander and co - action , and sets up ST company ' s restructuring prediction model to judge which market conditions the ST company is likely to be restructured . The demand side mainly refers to the influence of IPO market situation . The government intervention is the common actor , which is divided into local government intervention ability and local government intervention will . The following conclusions are drawn from the selection of ST companies in the A - share market of SEHK in 2004 - 2008 as samples . The following conclusions are drawn : ST company ' s shell resource value , equity structure , the urgency of accepting reorganization , ultimate controller and other external factors , such as internal factors such as ultimate controller and government intervention , are correlated with the probability that ST company is restructured . Then , based on this , we can use the actual reorganization of ST company in the future to further detect the correct prediction model . This paper is divided into six parts to study ST company ' s reorganization prediction model and its application . The first part discusses the background of the special system of ST company and its assets reorganization , as well as a series of relevant laws and regulations of China Securities Regulatory Commission ( CSRC ) to provide legal guidance for the reorganization of listed companies . In the second part , the article reviews the definition of the performance of assets reorganization , the definition of the mode of assets reorganization , the reasons of ST and the factors that affect ST company ' s restructuring probability . The third part , from the history of China ' s assets reorganization and the environment of laws and regulations , introduces the mode of asset reorganization and its corresponding reorganization motivation , and provides a theoretical basis for the study through efficiency theory , agent theory , signal transmission theory , market force theory and enterprise rapid development theory . In the fourth part , the factors that affect ST company ' s reorganization are analyzed . From the angle of supplier , demander and co - action , this paper analyzes the factors that affect ST company ' s restructuring probability , and provides the basis for establishing the model of ST company ' s reorganization prediction . The fifth part , empirical analysis . Firstly , the variable design , sample selection criteria and data source of this paper are introduced in detail , then the preliminary prediction model of ST company is established . Then , through the correlation analysis of the selected explanatory variable index and the Logistic empirical analysis , the model is revised to establish the final ST company restructuring prediction model . Then , the accuracy rate of the prediction model is further detected by using the actual restructuring of ST company in the future . Part VI , the conclusions and recommendations of this paper . This part summarizes the research conclusion and relevant policy suggestion in this paper . It is mainly that ST company should try to improve its profitability , management ability and so on from the actual situation , and rationally analyze whether it is suitable for choosing assets reorganization road , strengthen the integration of the two parties in the aspects of manpower , marketing , management and enterprise culture , and realize the maximization of the cooperation and financial synergies between the two parties , and effectively improve the quality of the successful restructuring of ST company .

【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F271;F832.51

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