我国政府债务与经济增长可适性研究

发布时间：2018-02-24 00:45

本文关键词： 政府债务经济增长债务阈值拉弗曲线　出处：《金融与经济》2014年07期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文在对现有文献资料进行系统回顾的基础上,从新古典理论的分析视角实证检验了我国政府债务与经济增长的可适性,以验证政府债务拉弗曲线的存在性为切入点,从中央政府债务和全国政府债务两个层次探讨了我国政府债务的阈值区间。研究表明,政府债务拉弗曲线确实存在,即当政府的负债率超过某一特定值后,政府债务与经济增长会呈现负相关关系;中央政府负债率和全国政府负债率的阈值区间分别为22%～33%和71%～129%,远远高于2012年中国社科院政府债务测算结果(15%和53%);当前全国政府负债率要低于60%的国际警戒线和本文测算的71%～129%的政府债务阈值区间。本文据此提出了我国政府债务"四维一体"的可持续管理框架。
[Abstract]:On the basis of a systematic review of the existing literature, this paper empirically tests the suitability of government debt and economic growth from the perspective of neoclassical theory, in order to verify the existence of the Lafer curve of government debt as a starting point. This paper discusses the threshold range of Chinese government debt from two levels of central government debt and national government debt. The research shows that the Lafer curve of government debt does exist, that is, when the debt ratio of the government exceeds a certain value, There is a negative correlation between government debt and economic growth. The threshold ranges of the central government debt ratio and the national government debt ratio are 22 / 33% and 71 / 129 respectively, which are much higher than that of the 2012 Chinese Academy of Social Sciences government debt calculation result of 15% and 53%; the current national government debt ratio should be below the international warning line of 60% and this article. In this paper, a sustainable management framework of "four dimensions" for Chinese government debt is put forward.
【分类号】：F812.5;F124

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