主要发达国家主权债务问题研究

发布时间：2018-02-25 16:00

本文关键词： 发达国家经济发展主权债务问题启示　出处：《云南财经大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：一直以来，可以说主权债务危机的发生已是常态，历史上战争因素造成的债务违约时有发生，二战后达到顶峰，当时世界上基本上有半数国家都出现了债务违约现象；20世纪80年代到90年代，发生在新兴市场国家，源于资产泡沫破裂的债务危机，亦给世界带来了不小的影响。债务危机的发生往往具有一定的周期性，，而且通常是与银行危机相伴随，银行危机与债务危机之间有密切的传导机制。自2007年美国的次贷危机爆发以来，引发了一连串的效应，并且一步步扩展为世界性的金融危机。美国、日本等主要发达国家债务问题显现，欧洲债务危机亦愈演愈烈，各国经济的发展一直未能摆脱危机影响，复苏乏力。为何此次危机影响如此之大？为何持续时间如此之长？更深层次的原因，是国家制度设计、政治经济体制机制的运行问题。发达国家主权债务问题，是由发达国家的政府债务到期无力偿还，从而引发对发达国家的主权信用的重新审视，国家主权信用遭到质疑，国家的整体经济运行陷入困境，影响了社会的稳定与发展，也引发了全球经济的动荡。政府尚且不能维持自身债务的稳定，那么各企业又该保持怎样的投融资规模，如何把债务限制在一定的范围内，这都是值得我们思考的问题。政府债务不只包括对国内居民的债务，还有对国外居民的债务，所以除了影响本国经济的运行与国家的稳定之外，还会对整个世界经济产生巨大的影响，特别是像美国、欧元区这类具有全球重要影响力的大国、区域集团，对世界经济的影响更加深远。发达国家债务问题的解决，关系到世界经济的复苏能力，作为世界经济发展的先行者，对发展中国家的经济发展具有重要的示范作用。本文主要从发达国家的经济发展问题出发，对其债务危机爆发的过程、原因、相关因素进行深入分析，通过相关模型的检验、分析得出相应的预警机制，从而提出对中国债务问题的相关思考，归纳出对中国经济健康稳定发展的启示。
[Abstract]:All along, it can be said that the occurrence of sovereign debt crises has been the norm. Historically, debt defaults caused by war factors have occurred from time to time, culminating after World War II. At the time, basically half of the world's countries had defaulted on their debt. From 80s to 90s, the debt crisis in emerging markets, caused by the bursting of the asset bubble, occurred between 80s and 90s. The occurrence of debt crisis is often cyclical, and usually accompanied by bank crisis, there is a close transmission mechanism between bank crisis and debt crisis. Since the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States in 2007, it has triggered a series of effects and gradually expanded into a worldwide financial crisis. The debt problems of the major developed countries, such as the United States and Japan, have emerged, and the debt crisis in Europe has also intensified. The economic development of each country has been unable to shake off the impact of the crisis and the recovery has been weak. Why is the crisis so affected? Why does it last so long? The deeper reason, is the national system design, the political economic system mechanism movement question. The sovereign debt problem of developed countries is caused by the government debt of developed countries to be due and unable to repay, which leads to a re-examination of the sovereign credit of developed countries. The sovereign credit of the developed countries is questioned, and the overall economic operation of the country is in difficulty. It has affected social stability and development, and also triggered global economic turmoil. Even if the government cannot maintain the stability of its own debt, then what kind of investment and financing scale should enterprises maintain and how to limit their debts to a certain extent? These are all questions worthy of our consideration. Government debt includes not only debt to domestic residents, but also debt to foreign residents. Therefore, in addition to affecting the operation of the domestic economy and the stability of the country, it will also have a huge impact on the world economy as a whole, especially in the United States. Regional groups, such as the euro zone, have a more profound impact on the world economy. The solution to the debt problems of developed countries has a bearing on the ability of the world economy to recover, and is a pioneer in the development of the world economy. It plays an important role in demonstrating the economic development of developing countries. Starting from the problems of economic development in developed countries, this paper makes a deep analysis of the process, causes and relevant factors of the outbreak of debt crisis, and obtains the corresponding early warning mechanism through the examination of relevant models. Therefore, the author puts forward some thoughts on China's debt problem and sums up the enlightenment to the healthy and stable development of China's economy.
【学位授予单位】：云南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F811.5

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