明星分析师的影响因素和市场影响力研究

发布时间：2018-02-25 21:32

本文关键词： 分析师盈余预测投资评级市场反应　出处：《复旦大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：作为专业人员,证券分析师具备较高的信息解读与预测能力,能较全面地分析信息,持续地评价、估量和预测这些信息对市场价格的影响,并向客户提供盈利预测和投资建议。我国证券分析师起步较晚,但随着我国资本市场的发展,机构投资者队伍的庞大,证券分析师的市场需求也逐步扩大。同时,“新财富最佳分析师”等各种明星分析师评选比赛使得证券分析师曝光率不断增加,其预测行为的市场认可度也得到显著提高。作为国内业界公认的最具权威性的证券分析师排名,“新财富最佳分析师”自2003年至今已经成功举办了九届,影响力日益扩大。上榜“新财富”不仅能为证券分析师带来巨大的荣耀,使其成为业界的明星,更能为其带来薪酬的大幅上涨和职位的晋升。本文以2005-2010年中国证券分析师的盈余预测以及投资评级数据为样本,对入选明星分析师的影响因素以及明星分析师对市场的影响力进行了深入研究。本文发现明星分析师的盈余预测能力并没有明显优于非明星分析师,盈余预测准确性对分析师入选明星的可能性有正向影响,但并不显著。可见,盈余预测能力并不是决定我国证券分析师是否能脱颖而出上榜“新财富最佳分析师”的主要原因。本文还发现投资评级的乐观性、发布的报告数目、跟踪股票的数目以及从业年数均对入选明星分析师的概率有显著影响,投资评级越乐观、发布报告越多、跟踪股票数目越少,从业经验越丰富,入选明星分析师的可能性越大。分析师的成功也得益于所在券商提供的资源和环境,在大券商工作的分析师更有可能成为明星。此外,明星分析师的当选还具有显著持续性,相比非明星分析师,明星分析师继续入选的概率更大。本文还对明星分析师投资评级的市场反应进行了研究分析。本文发现明星分析师投资评级对市场的影响是非对称的。对于“买入”及“增持”投资评级,市场认可明星效应并且积极响应,明星分析师对股价的影响力明显大于非明星分析师。但是对于“非正面”的投资评级,明星效应似乎并不存在。明星分析师评级报告公布日后的市场反应并没有超过,甚至有些低于非明星分析师的评级报告。也就是说,投资者认可明星分析师具有出众的荐股能力,但并不是同程度的认可明星分析师的“看空”能力。
[Abstract]:As professionals, securities analysts have a high ability to interpret and predict information. They can analyze information comprehensively, continuously evaluate, estimate and predict the impact of such information on market prices. China's securities analysts started late, but with the development of China's capital market, the ranks of institutional investors are huge. Market demand for securities analysts is also growing. At the same time, a variety of star analysts, such as the New Fortune analysts, have increased their exposure and market acceptance of their forecast behavior. As the most authoritative ranking of securities analysts in the domestic industry, "New Fortune Best analyst" has successfully held nine sessions since 2003. New Fortune not only brings great glory to securities analysts, but also makes it a star in the industry. This paper uses earnings forecasts and investment rating data from Chinese securities analysts for the period 2005-2010 as a sample. The influence factors of star analysts and the influence of star analysts on the market are studied in depth. This paper finds that the earnings forecasting ability of star analysts is not significantly better than that of non-star analysts, and the accuracy of earnings forecasting has a positive effect on the likelihood that analysts will be selected as stars, but it is not significant. The ability to forecast earnings is not the main reason why China's securities analysts can stand out on the list of "New Wealth Best analysts." the paper also finds the optimism of investment rating and the number of reports released. The number of stocks tracked and the number of years of employment had a significant impact on the probability of being selected as a star analyst. The more optimistic the investment rating, the more reports were released, the less the number of stocks tracked, the more experienced they had. The more likely you are to be a star analyst, the more likely you are to become a star, thanks to the resources and environment that your brokerage provides. Compared with non-star analysts, star analysts continue to be more likely to be selected. The paper also analyzes the market reaction of star analyst's investment rating, and finds out that the influence of star analyst's investment rating on the market is asymmetrical. The market recognizes the star effect and responds positively. Star analysts have significantly more influence on stock prices than non-star analysts. But for "non-positive" investment ratings, The star effect doesn't seem to exist. The market reaction to the star analyst rating report hasn't exceeded, or even been, lower than that of the non-star analyst rating report. Investors recognize that star analysts have outstanding ability to recommend stocks, but not the same degree of recognition of star analysts'"short" ability.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.51;F224

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