上市商业银行经营绩效对其股价波动的相关性研究

发布时间：2018-03-01 01:09

  本文关键词： 上市商业银行 EVA 经营绩效 股价 相关性　出处：《西北农林科技大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：目前中国正处在高速发展阶段,银行利润保持持续较快增长，体现了经济成长所带来的好处。我国银行上市比较晚，上市时间相对国外银行较短，我国的银行业在规模和竞争能力等方面与国外银行业存在着很大的差距，国内的研究主要集中在了银行绩效方面的研究，致力于寻求一种能够有效衡量绩效的方法。而国内对上市商业银行与股价波动相关性的研究相对国外较少。但随着我国银行的国际步伐加快，银行业的国际化趋势逐渐成为银行发展的动力。股票市场作为反映情况经济变化的晴雨表，更应形真实地反映我国上市商业银行的经营状况。研究表明，EVA与股票市价具有高度的相关性，EVA的增加意味着股票价格的上涨和股东财富的增加，更形象真实地反映我国上市商业银行的经营状况，使经营绩效能够形象地说明、预测股价的变化。 本文利用相关性分析方法，在市场有效性、持续经营等假设的前提下，通过我国上市的五家股份制商业银行，HB银行、MB银行、PB银行、FB银行、ZB银行十年的财务数据分别计算整理其税后净营业利润、资本总额、资本成本率，计算经济增加值，分别对经营绩效进行评价，研究其与股价波动的相关性。并且从影响股票价格的因素、股票价格及股票期权对公司绩效的影响、规模因素控制绩效变量的变化、财务报表信息披露的充分性与市场反映的滞后性以及银行的长期盈利和短期盈利性等五个方面，分析了我国上市商业银行经营绩效与股价波动相关性差异的原因以及提出了相应的对策建议。 本文研究认为，EVA对上市商业银行股票价格具有显著的影响，，并且在一定的时期内具有滞后性，但由于股票价格受多方面因素的影响，因此对其相关性差异的原因进行了总结、分析，提出相应的对策建议。并且为投资者、管理者提供决策依据，合理改善各项指标，帮助政策制定者掌握上市商业银行运行情况，促进我国银行业健康稳定的发展。
[Abstract]:China is currently in a stage of rapid development, the profits of banks to maintain sustained and rapid growth, reflects the benefits of economic growth. China's listed banks relatively late, relatively short time to market of foreign banks, China's banking industry in the scale and competition with foreign banks there is a big gap, domestic research the research mainly focused on the bank's performance, to seek an effective method to measure the performance. But the domestic correlation research of listed commercial banks and stock price volatility relative to foreign banks in China is less. But with the international pace, the trend of internationalization of banking industry has gradually become the power bank stock market as a barometer of development. Reflect the situation of economic change, should form a true reflection of China's listed commercial banks operating conditions. The results show that EVA is highly correlated with the stock market The increase of EVA means the rise of stock price and the increase of shareholder wealth. It reflects the business status of China's listed commercial banks better, and enables business performance to vividly illustrate and predict the change of stock price.
This paper uses correlation analysis method, in the premise of market efficiency, continuity hypothesis, by China's five listed joint-stock commercial bank, HB bank, MB bank, PB bank, FB bank, ZB bank financial data for the ten years were calculated to reorganize its net operating profit after tax, the total capital cost of capital. Rate calculation, economic value added, respectively, to evaluate the operating performance, and to study the correlation between the stock price volatility. And from the stock price influence factors, influencing the stock price and stock options to the company performance, change of scale factors to control the performance variables, the five aspects of the market and fully reflect the information disclosure of financial statements the lag and the bank's long-term profitability and short-term profitability, analyzes the reasons of China's listed commercial banks operating performance and stock price fluctuation correlation difference and put forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.
鏈�鏂囩爺绌惰�や负,EVA瀵逛笂甯傚晢涓氶摱琛岃偂绁ㄤ环鏍煎叿鏈夋樉钁楃殑褰卞搷,骞朵笖鍦ㄤ竴瀹氱殑鏃舵湡鍐呭叿鏈夋粸鍚庢

本文编号：1549744