基于趋势技术分析的欧元兑美元即期投机交易策略研究

发布时间：2018-03-04 19:44

本文选题：趋势技术分析　切入点：市场价格走势图　出处：《湖南大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：自从外汇市场进入互联网时代，个人投机者能够随时随地参与外汇市场，获得与大机构相对一致的价格。外汇市场可以做空、做多，对于国内投资渠道少的我国个人投机者来说，是一个比较好的选择。相对于大机构，个人投机者在信息获取方面和个人心理控制方面存在缺陷，，这是个人投机者交易亏损的主要原因。本文从怎么处理好个人投机者在信息获取和个人心理控制存在的两个缺陷出发，运用趋势技术分析理论和工具，建立一个关于外汇投机交易的策略，选取国际外汇市场1992年——2012年欧元兑美元的外汇交易行情为样本，对这个交易策略进行检验，得出个人投机者根据趋势技术分析理论可以实现稳定获利的结论。市场价格走势图是市场参与者对基本经济走势的心理反应。价格是在关于经济走势的信息和市场参与者的心理的共同作用下形成的。在经济走势和市场参与者的心理不一致的时候，市场价格呈现震荡走势；在经济走势和市场参与者的心理一致的时候，市场价格呈现趋势的形式。当市场处于震荡时，个人投机者是很难实现交易获利的。而当市场处于趋势走势时，基本经济走势和市场参与者的心理预期一致，通过市场价格走势图预测未来的经济走势是可行的，从而实现预测未来价格的目的。本文设计的交易策略就是利用趋势技术分析和相关工具避开震荡行情，捕捉趋势行情，从而弥补个人投机者在信息获取方面的不足，在外汇市场中占得先机。本文采用14周均线、35周均线的交叉确立周线趋势，从而确立基本经济走势。在周线趋势确立后，可以预期未来一段时间的价格波动将顺应这个趋势。本文把顺应趋势的波段称之为主波段，逆向趋势的波段称之为调整波段，主波段和调整波段之间的转换通过特殊三根价格线来体现。交易策略的核心思想就是在顺应周线趋势的前提下，捕捉顺应周线趋势的主波段。
[Abstract]:Since the foreign exchange market has entered the Internet era, individual speculators have been able to participate in the foreign exchange market at any time, anywhere and at a relatively consistent price with large institutions. Foreign exchange markets can be short and long. For individual speculators in China who have few domestic investment channels, it is a relatively good choice. Compared with large institutions, individual speculators have defects in obtaining information and controlling personal psychology. This is the main reason for individual speculators' losses. Based on how to deal with the two defects of individual speculators in information acquisition and personal psychological control, this paper uses trend technology analysis theory and tools to establish a strategy on foreign exchange speculative trading. Taking the foreign exchange market of the international foreign exchange market from 1992 to 2012 as a sample, this paper tests the trading strategy and draws the conclusion that individual speculators can achieve stable profits according to the theory of trend technology analysis. The market price chart is the psychological reaction of market participants to basic economic trends. Prices are formed under the joint action of information on economic trends and the psychology of market participants. When their psychology is inconsistent, Market prices are volatile; when the economic trend is consistent with the psychology of market participants, market prices take the form of a trend. When the market is in shock, It is difficult for individual speculators to make a profit from trading. When the market is in a trend trend, the basic economic trend is in line with the psychological expectations of market participants. It is feasible to predict future economic trends through market price charts. In order to achieve the purpose of predicting future prices, the trading strategy designed in this paper is to use trend technology analysis and related tools to avoid shocks, catch trend prices, and make up for the deficiency of individual speculators in obtaining information. Take the lead in the foreign exchange market. In this paper, the crossing of the 14-week mean line and the 35-week average line is used to establish the trend of the cycle line, so as to establish the basic economic trend. It can be expected that price fluctuations will conform to this trend for some time to come. In this paper, we call the band of compliance with the trend as the main band, and the band with the reverse trend as the adjustment band. The conversion between the main band and the adjusted band is reflected by three special price lines. The core idea of the trading strategy is to capture the main band of the trend under the premise of complying with the trend of the cycle.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F831.52

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