后金融危机时期国际热钱对我国证券市场的影响研究

发布时间：2018-03-07 22:06

本文选题：后金融危机　切入点：国际热钱　出处：《南昌大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：2007年美国爆发了影响深远的次贷危机,2011年欧洲主权债务问题加剧了危机的复杂性,全球金融市场震荡,国际热钱问题再次成为研究热点。在人民币升值预期和中美利差的经济形势下我国受到较大的热钱冲击压力,热钱大规模地交替流动对我国证券市场产生了大幅波动。本文旨在通过相关研究得出如何在后金融危机时期防范国际热钱对我国证券市场的冲击。本文研究思路围绕“理论—现状—机理—实证—对策”展开,并采用了比较分析、文献研究、规范与实证相结合的方法。先通过国际热钱基本理论的介绍,提出本文研究的问题,引申出后金融危机时期国际热钱在我国流动的现状。紧接着,分别运用直接和间接作用机理剖析了国际热钱如何对证券市场产生影响,较全面地阐述了国际热钱带来的正面效应：提高证券市场流动性、运作效率和推动金融市场一体化,负面效应包括引起股价大幅波动和增加证券市场风险。然后利用Granger因果检验法和VAR模型验证得出：(1)热钱流入或流出会推动股票指数的上升或下降；(2)证券市场的收益率变动会引起热钱流动。最后提出了应对热钱问题的五点策略及建议：加强渠道监管,合理引导和管理热钱,加强证券市场建设,建立热钱的预警应急机制,推动国际金融合作。
[Abstract]:In 2007, the United States broke out a far-reaching subprime mortgage crisis. In 2011, the European sovereign debt problem aggravated the complexity of the crisis, and the global financial markets were volatile. The international hot money issue has once again become a hot topic of study. Under the expectation of RMB appreciation and the economic situation of China-US interest rate differentials, China is under greater pressure from hot money shocks. The exchange of hot money on a large scale has caused large fluctuations in China's securities market. This paper aims to find out how to prevent the impact of international hot money on China's securities market in the post-financial crisis period. This paper focuses on "Theory-current situation-mechanism-positivist-countermeasure", and adopts the methods of comparative analysis, literature research, norm and demonstration. First, through the introduction of the basic theory of international hot money, Put forward the question that this article studies, extend the current situation of international hot money flow in our country in the post-financial crisis period. Then, we analyze how international hot money affects the securities market by using direct and indirect action mechanism, respectively. The positive effects of international hot money are described in a more comprehensive way: improving the liquidity of the securities market, operating efficiency and promoting the integration of financial markets, The negative effects include causing the stock price to fluctuate substantially and increasing the risk of the stock market. Then using the Granger causality test and the VAR model to verify that the inflow or outflow of hot money will push the stock index up or down. The change of profit rate will cause hot money flow. Finally, the paper puts forward five strategies and suggestions to deal with hot money problem: strengthening channel supervision, We should rationally guide and manage hot money, strengthen the construction of the securities market, establish a mechanism for early warning and emergency response of hot money, and promote international financial cooperation.
【学位授予单位】：南昌大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.51

【参考文献】