社会网络、年龄结构对家庭金融资产选择的影响

发布时间：2018-03-08 09:39

  本文选题：社会网络　切入点：年龄结构　出处：《暨南大学》2016年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：家庭金融资产配置及其与社会网络、年龄结构的关系一直是学术界关心的重要话题。银行储蓄、股票、基金和房产等作为家庭资产中最重要的组成部分,它们受非正规制度、人口老龄化的影响和冲击也备受瞩目。然而,限于数据等方面的约束,国内相关研究还多局限于理论层面,部分基于宏观数据的实证检验又面临“可加性”问题的困扰,这一领域的研究亟待推进。基于详实的微观家庭调查数据,本文在充分控制人力资本、财富效应以及其他家庭人口学特征等一系列因素影响的前提下,细致考察了社会网络、年龄结构对家庭金融资产配置的影响,主要得出以下研究结论:本文沿袭Cao等人(2005)所构建的均衡股票投资理论框架,通过内生化居民不确定性偏好,将家庭的社会网络变量引入居民股票投资最优模型,从理论上研究家庭社会网络对居民股市参与的影响机制。研究结果表明,不论对于不确定性厌恶型家庭还是不确定性中性或喜好型家庭,随着社会网络程度的提高,其风险厌恶程度(或不确定性偏好)将不同程度降低(或提高),居民将表现出更强的市场参与倾向,并且其股市参与也更为深入。基于“中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)”25省专项入户调查数据的实证检验也进一步证实,拥有更多社会关系网络的家庭,股市参与概率更大,而且一旦进入股票资本市场,其持有的股票资产在其金融资产中的占比会更高。本文也首次在统一的框架下从社会网络角度系统研究了我国居民家庭的民间放贷行为。实证发现,在中国乡土社会,社会网络推动了家庭的民间放贷参与活动。考虑到回归结果可能受遗漏变量和反向因果等因素的内生性干扰,利用“是否为当地大姓”作为家庭社会网络的工具变量,IV Probit模型和IV Tobit模型回归结果显示,社会网络对家庭民间放贷投资的参与概率、参与金额以及参与程度仍然具有显著的正向影响,结论是稳健的。资产配置效率方面,本文考察了家庭层面的社会网络对家庭资产配置效率的贡献,更为重要的是,本文还考察了社会网络的这种贡献在资产结构迥异的城乡之间以及市场化水平非均匀分布的地区之间有何差异。研究发现,基于亲友关系的社会网络,显著提高了家庭资产配置的效率,采用工具变量的估计结果也进一步证实,拥有更多社会网络的家庭,投资组合更为有效。同时,较之农村家庭,城镇家庭投资更为有效,但资产配置效率在中西部家庭与东部家庭间并不存在显著差异;家庭层面的社会网络在中西部地区和农村,对家庭投资组合有效性的促进效应明显高于东部地区和城市。关于年龄及年龄结构对家庭资产选择行为的影响,本文研究发现,较之中青年家庭,户主年龄在60岁以上的家庭对房产、银行储蓄的配置比重更大,而年龄对家庭股票、基金等风险资产投资的影响负向显著;家庭老龄人口比的提高,会促进家庭银行储蓄和房产的持有比重,同时,会抑制家庭股票、基金等金融市场的参与程度。分区域来看,家庭年龄结构在中西部地区,对城镇居民家庭股票、基金投资行为的抑制效应要高于东部地区,对家庭房产投资的边际影响要低于东部地区,而在银行储蓄方面,年龄结构的影响在区域间不存在显著差异。同时,年龄及年龄结构可以通过降低家庭风险偏好和提高预防性储蓄进而影响家庭金融投资决策。本文的理论研究与实证发现为中国资本市场的发展架设了一个新的政策视角:即社会网络与人口结构视角。家庭是经济社会的基本单元,资本市场的健康发展需要微观居民的积极参与,然而居民投资决策的形成不是孤立的个体异质性的结果,容易受到其所处制度环境的影响。在当前市场机制还不健全的社会转轨条件下,如何鼓励居民家庭之间的互动往来并有效提升其社会网络、如何实现金融创新与社会网络的匹配、如何在长期内引导有利于提高居民投资效率的社会网络规范的形成,这些都是更加系统的政府政策需要深入考虑的问题。同时,进一步完善我国社会养老保险机制,这可以部分地(虽然不能全部)减轻老龄居民预期支出的不确定性对其资本市场参与的抑制效应,帮助老龄居民无后顾之忧地利用各种金融工具来构造“近理性”的投资组合,减少福利损失。
[Abstract]:Family financial asset allocation and the social network, the relationship of the age structure is always an important topic in academic circles. The bank savings, stocks, funds and real estate as the most important part of family assets, they are affected by the informal system, the impact of an aging population and the impact of too much attention. However, the limited data etc. the constraints of domestic research is limited to the theoretical level and empirical test based on macro data is facing "additive" problems, the research in this field should be promoted. The micro household survey data based on detailed based on the full control of the human capital, the premise of a series of factors and other family wealth effect the demographic characteristics, investigates the social network effect of age structure on household financial assets allocation, the main conclusions are as following: This article follows Cao et al (2 005) the theoretical framework constructed by the equilibrium of stock investment, through endogenous residents of uncertainty, the social network variables into family residents stock investment optimal model, from the theoretical study of family social network on the influence mechanism of residents participate in the stock market. The results show that, regardless of the uncertainty averse family or uncertain neutral or preferences the family, along with the social network to raise the level of the degree of risk aversion (or uncertainty) will decrease (or increase), residents will exhibit stronger market participation, and participate in the stock market more deeply. China family financial investigation "(CHFS)" based on the empirical test of the 25 Province special home the survey data also confirmed that the network has more social relations, family, participate in the stock market a greater probability, and once the capital into the stock market, the stock holdings The assets in its financial assets in accounting will be higher. This is also the first time in a unified framework system from the angle of social network of private lending behavior of Chinese households. The empirical study indicates that the China in rural society, social network to promote the family of folk lending participation activities. Considering the regression results may be affected by. A disturbance of omitted variables and reverse causal factors such as the use of the local surname as "family social network variables, IV Probit model and IV Tobit model regression results show that the probability of participation in social network of family folk lending investment, in the amount and degree of participation still has a significant positive effect, the conclusion is robust. The efficiency of asset allocation, examines the contribution of the household level of social network and family asset allocation efficiency in this paper, more importantly, this paper also examines the social network This contribution between different asset structure and market level between urban and rural areas of the non uniform distribution of the difference. The study found that family relationship based social network, significantly improves the efficiency of the family asset allocation, using instrumental variables estimates results further confirmed that the family has more social network, investment portfolio more effective. At the same time, compared with rural households, urban households invest more effectively, but the efficiency of asset allocation in the Midwest and Eastern family family does not exist significant differences; the family level of social network in the western region and rural families, to promote the effectiveness of the portfolio effect was significantly higher than that of the Eastern region and the city of age. Age structure and impact on family assets selection behavior, this study found that, compared with the young family, headed over the age of 60 the family of real estate, reservoir bank Storage allocation proportion is larger, and the age of the household stock, fund and other risky assets investment significantly negative; family aging population is improved, will promote the family holdings, bank savings and real estate at the same time, the family will inhibit participation in stocks, funds and other financial markets. Subregionally, the age structure of family in the Midwest, the urban households stock, the investment fund of the inhibitory effect is higher than that of the eastern region, the marginal impact of investment on family property is lower than the eastern region, while in the bank, the impact of age structure does not exist significant differences among regions. At the same time, age and age structure can reduce the risk appetite and family to improve the precautionary savings and the influence of family financial investment decision. The theoretical research and empirical findings in this thesis set up a new policy perspective for the development of the capital market Chinese: The social network and population structure perspective. The family is the basic unit of national economy, the healthy development of the capital market needs the microscopic residents to actively participate in the formation of investment decisions of the residents but not isolated individual heterogeneity, easily affected by the institutional environment. In the social transition condition of the current market mechanism is not perfect next, how to encourage interaction between residents between families and promote the social network, how to realize the matching of financial innovation and social network, how to improve the efficiency of investment is conducive to the formation of residents social network standard guide in the long term, these are more systematic government policy requires in-depth consideration. At the same time, to further improve the China's social endowment insurance mechanism, which can partially alleviate the aging (although not all) expected expenditure uncertainty on the capital market participation The inhibition effect helps the elderly residents to use various financial instruments to construct "near rational" portfolios to reduce welfare losses.

【学位授予单位】：暨南大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F832.51;C912.3
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本文编号：1583378