官员晋升压力，金融市场化与房价增长

发布时间：2018-03-19 10:20

本文选题：官员晋升压力　切入点：金融市场化　出处：《清华大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：地方政府在对于房价上涨的作用受到了各界广泛关注，以GDP增长为主的官员激励机制被认为导致我国很多经济问题的根本原因，金融业发展和市场化程度的提高对于转型期国家各个行业的发展都会产生深远的影响，本文将这三者结合起来，研究在现行激励体制下，官员晋升压力、金融市场化水平对于房价上涨的作用，从制度的角度来解释房价上涨，从而深化对于地方政府在房地产市场上行为的理解。本文建立了住宅市场的存量调整模型，并推导住宅价格上涨与基本面因素以及政府干预的关系，，再据此建立计量经济学模型。在实证研究部分，我们以我国34个大中城市为研究目标，参考其他学者的研究，构造了晋升压力指数和金融市场化指数，并通过固定影响的面板数据回归分析了晋升压力和金融市场化对于住宅价格增长的影响。我们还按照地方政府对于经济资源控制力的不同，将样本等分为政府控制力强的组和政府控制力弱的组，分析不同组内晋升压力和金融市场化程度对于住宅价格增长影响的差别。最后，我们用不同的方法构造晋升压力指数，用来检验我们结果的稳健性。通过研究，我们发现晋升压力对于住宅价格增长有显著的正向影响，金融市场化程度对于住宅价格增长的影响呈倒U型，且拐点在金融市场化程度指数为5.5左右。相比于政府控制力弱的城市，在政府资源控制力强的城市中，晋升压力对于住宅价格增长的促进作用更明显，金融市场化对于住宅价格增长的制约作用更明显。我们的研究结果说明现行的官员考核机制会导致地方政府干预房地产市场，地方政府对于经济资源的控制为这种干预创造了条件，金融市场化水平的提高会对房价增长有抑制作用。
[Abstract]:The role of local governments in the rise of house prices has received extensive attention from all walks of life. The official incentive mechanism, which is dominated by the growth of GDP, is considered to be the root cause of many economic problems in our country. The development of the financial industry and the improvement of the degree of marketization will have a profound impact on the development of various industries in the countries in transition. This paper combines these three to study the pressure of official promotion under the current incentive system. The effect of financial marketization on the rise of house prices is explained from the perspective of institution, thus deepening the understanding of the behavior of local governments in the real estate market. In this paper, the stock adjustment model of housing market is established, and the relationship between housing price rise and fundamental factors as well as government intervention is deduced. Based on this model, an econometric model is established. Taking 34 large and medium-sized cities in China as the research goal and referring to the studies of other scholars, we have constructed the promotion stress index and the financial marketization index. And through the fixed impact panel data regression analysis, we analyzed the impact of promotion pressure and financial marketization on housing price growth. We also according to the local government control of economic resources is different, The samples are divided into groups with strong government control and those with weak government control. The difference between the promotion pressure and the degree of financial marketization in different groups on housing price growth is analyzed. Finally, we use different methods to construct the promotion pressure index. To test the robustness of our results. Through the research, we find that the promotion pressure has a significant positive impact on the housing price growth, and the financial marketization degree has a negative U-shaped impact on the housing price growth. And the inflection point is about 5.5 in the financial marketization degree index. Compared with the cities with weak government control, the promotion pressure plays a more important role in promoting housing price growth in cities with strong government resource control. The effect of financial marketization on housing price growth is even more obvious. Our research results show that the current official assessment mechanism will lead local governments to intervene in the real estate market. The control of economic resources by local governments creates conditions for this kind of intervention, and the improvement of financial marketization level will restrain the growth of house prices.
【学位授予单位】：清华大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.5;F299.23;D630;F224

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