我国地方政府债券的风险分析及其发展路径选择

发布时间：2018-03-31 06:33

本文选题：地方政府债券　切入点：风险　出处：《山东大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：一直以来,我国地方政府通过各种方式频频举债,虽未引起债务危机,但由于地方债务缺乏透明度和市场化约束,其具体规模、真实性难以落实。为了创新和完善地方政府举债融资机制,处理好债务管理与稳增长的关系,减少隐性债务引起的财政风险,同时也为了实施好积极的财政政策,2009年,我国开始试点发行地方政府债券。到目前为止,地方政府发债模式经历了“代发代还”、试点省市“自发代还”和“自发自还”三个阶段,发债规模也从最初的2000亿元增加至2014年的4000亿元。建立以政府债券为主体的地方政府举债融资机制,有利于消除偿债主体不清晰问题,有利于进一步强化市场约束,控制和化解地方债务风险,探索建立地方债券市场并推动其健康发展。随着地方政府债券制度改革不断推进,究竟风险如何,未来该如何发展,值得深入探究。本文首先对地方政府债券的相关概念了进行阐述和界定,并从三个方面对我国目前发行地方政府债券的现状进行了具体说明。其次,就我国允许地方政府发行债券所面临的可度量和不可度量风险进行识别与分析。再次,本文以山东省为例,运用改进后的KMV模型对地方政府发行债券的可度量风险——信用风险进行度量,得到不同规模地方政府债券的违约距离与违约概率,论证目前山东省的发行规模尚在零违约安全范围之内。另外,分别介绍发达国家与欠发达国家在地方政府债券发行和风险防范方面的经验,并对不同国家的做法进行经验分析。最后,结合全文研究,对我国地方政府债券的发展路径提出了政策建议。
[Abstract]:All along, local governments in our country have frequently raised debts through various means, although they have not caused a debt crisis, but because of the lack of transparency and market-oriented constraints of local debt, the specific scale of the debt has been on a concrete scale. In order to innovate and perfect the financing mechanism of local government borrowing, to deal with the relationship between debt management and steady growth, to reduce the financial risk caused by recessive debt, and to implement a positive fiscal policy, in 2009, China began to issue local government bonds on a pilot basis. Up to now, the local government bond issuance model has gone through three stages: "acting as a substitute for repayment", and "spontaneously paying back" and "spontaneous self-repayment" in the pilot provinces and cities. The scale of bond issuance has also increased from 200 billion yuan at the beginning to 400 billion yuan in 2014. The establishment of a local government borrowing and financing mechanism, with government bonds as the main body, will help eliminate the ambiguity of the main body of debt service and further strengthen market restrictions. To control and resolve the risk of local debt, to explore the establishment of a local bond market and to promote its healthy development. As the reform of the local government bond system continues to advance, what exactly is the risk and how should it develop in the future? This paper expounds and defines the related concepts of local government bonds, and explains the current situation of issuing local government bonds in China from three aspects. Secondly, The paper identifies and analyzes the measurable and non-measurable risks that local governments are allowed to issue bonds. Thirdly, this paper takes Shandong Province as an example. Using the improved KMV model, the paper measures the measurable risk of local government bonds-credit risk, and obtains the default distance and default probability of local government bonds of different sizes. To demonstrate that the issuance scale of Shandong Province is still within the safe range of zero default at present. In addition, the experiences of developed and less developed countries in local government bond issuance and risk prevention are introduced respectively. Finally, based on the full text research, the author puts forward some policy suggestions on the development of local government bonds in China.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F812.5

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