房地产市

发布时间：2018-05-01 10:24

本文选题：房地产市场 + 股票市场　；参考：《南京财经大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：作为一国宏观经济状况的重要表现，通货膨胀一直都是社会各大主体关注的焦点。从我国的现行经济状况来看，，通货膨胀、房地产市场与股票市场均面临着巨大的挑战和机遇。因此，深入研究这三方的联动关系，找准调控着力点，对于我国政府更为准确定位财政政策和货币政策倾向，从而实现通货膨胀、房地产市场与股票市场三者关系的最优化，具有十分重要的理论和实际意义。通过整理国内外学者对于房地产市场、股票市场与通货膨胀三者之间关系的研究发现，他们绝大多数侧重于讨论房地产市场、股票市场与通货膨胀之间的两两对应关系，却很少注重对三者间整体互动关系进行系统地研究与分析。因此，本文在从房地产市场、股票市场与通货膨胀三者之间的经济学理论出发，在总结现有观点与实证方法的基础上，引入VAR模型，对这三个变量进行实证分析和研究，找出三者之间的整体动态关系。本文主要分为理论、实证两大部分，理论部分重在对房地产市场、股票市场与通货膨胀三者之间的关系进行分析；实证部分则通过相关性分析、数据平稳性检验、协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解的计量方法对中国房地产市场、股票市场和通货膨胀的联动关系进行实证分析。本文实证结果显示：房价上涨会刺激通货膨胀，通货膨胀会抑制房价的上涨；股价与通货膨胀的相互作用方向是不确定的；房价对股价的作用方向不确定，股价上涨会刺激房价上涨。最后，在联系理论与实际经济意义对研究结果进行了分析和解释的基础上，本文提出了以下调控建议：引导投资房地产行为更趋理性化；适度调整房地产、股票两市场更趋平衡化；稳健控制股票市场使之更趋规范化；全面调控社会需求更趋合理化。
[Abstract]:As an important manifestation of the macro-economic situation of a country, inflation has always been the focus of all the major subjects of the society. From the current economic situation of our country, inflation, the real estate market and the stock market are faced with great challenges and opportunities. Therefore, the in-depth study of the linkage relationship between the three parties should be made to adjust and control the focus of our country. The government is more accurate in positioning financial policy and monetary policy, thus achieving inflation. The optimization of the relationship between the three parties in the real estate market and the stock market is of great theoretical and practical significance.
Through the study of the relations between the domestic and foreign scholars on the real estate market, the stock market and the inflation three, most of them focus on the discussion of the real estate market, the 22 corresponding relationship between the stock market and inflation, but rarely pay little attention to the systematic study and analysis of the overall interaction between the three. This paper, based on the economic theory between the real estate market, the stock market and the three inflation, introduces the VAR model on the basis of the existing and empirical methods, and carries out empirical analysis and Research on the three variables, and finds out the overall dynamic relationship between the three.
This article is mainly divided into two parts: the theoretical part, the theoretical part focuses on the analysis of the relationship between the real estate market, the stock market and the three inflation, and the empirical part is based on the correlation analysis, the data stability test, the cointegration test, the Grainger causality test, the pulse impulse response function and the variance decomposition measurement method. The empirical analysis of the linkage between the real estate market, the stock market and the inflation shows that the rising price of the house price will stimulate the inflation, the inflation will inhibit the rise of the house price; the direction of the interaction between the price and the inflation is uncertain; the direction of the price to the stock price is uncertain, and the rise of the price will stimulate the house. In the end, on the basis of the analysis and explanation of the relationship theory and the practical economic significance, this paper puts forward the following suggestions: guiding the behavior of investment real estate to be more rational; adjusting the real estate appropriately; the two market is more balanced; the steady control of the stock market makes it more standardized; comprehensive adjustment is made. Control social demand is more rationalized.

【学位授予单位】：南京财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.51;F822.5;F293.3;F224

【参考文献】