兰州城投债发行主体信用风险研究

发布时间：2018-05-02 06:50

本文选题：兰州城投 + 城投债　；参考：《兰州大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：分税制改革后,各地方政府通过搭建地方政府投融资平台进行投融资,其中城投公司是所组建平台的重要的公司类型,平台在城市化建设以及应对国际金融危机中发挥了重要的作用,然而资金一直是其发展的瓶颈,有效的筹集资金成为持续发展的保障。发行债券成为多样化融资的一个主要融资方式,自1993年上海城市建设投资开发总公司成功发行了第一只金额为五亿元的城投债至今,城投债的发行经历了20年的发展历程,以高利率和“准市政债”为特征的城投债一直以来倍受市场投资者的青睐,而从2011年7月开始债券市价却频频出现暴跌,在一级和二级市场上引来了恐慌,投资者开始对城投债发行主体的信用风险担忧。而专家则指出作为公开度高和违约影响力度大的城投债不会出现信用风险,到期偿还是有保障的。然而城投债发行主体的信用风险目前属于债券市场上的评级洼地,忽略对城投债的评估以及持续跟踪,甚至“评级乱象”也已成为普遍现象,投资者很难客观的认识城投债的信用风险。本文用BP神经网络模型对兰州城市发展投资有限责任公司(以下简称“兰州城投”)在成功发行“09兰州城投债”和“11兰州城投债”后进行信用评估,给目前城投债市场上的投资者一个理性的认识,不盲目的跟随现有评级市场的评级状况而波动,同时也给兰州城投提出了警示,合理规划筹集资金投建项目,保证资金使用的经济效益与社会效益,监督资金的流向预防信用风险的发生。
[Abstract]:After the tax distribution reform, the local governments invested and financed by setting up local government investment and financing platforms, among which CityInvestment Corporation was an important type of companies formed on the platform. The platform has played an important role in the construction of urbanization and the response to the international financial crisis. However, the capital has always been the bottleneck of its development, and the effective raising of funds has become the guarantee of sustainable development. Bond issuance has become one of the main financing methods for diversified financing. Since Shanghai Urban Construction Investment and Development Corporation successfully issued the first city investment bond worth 500 million yuan in 1993, the issuance of city investment bonds has experienced a development process of 20 years. City bonds, characterized by high interest rates and "quasi-municipal debt," have long been popular among market investors, but bond market prices have plummeted since July 2011, sparking panic in the primary and secondary markets. Investors began to be concerned about the credit risk of the city bond issuer. While experts point out that as a high degree of openness and strong impact of default city investment debt there will be no credit risk, maturity and repayment is guaranteed. However, the credit risk of the principal issuers of city investment bonds is now a rating depression in the bond market. Ignoring the evaluation and continuous tracking of the city investment bonds, even "rating chaos" has become a common phenomenon. It is difficult for investors to objectively understand the credit risk of city debt. This paper uses BP neural network model to evaluate the credit of Lanzhou City Development Investment Co., Ltd (hereinafter referred to as Lanzhou City Investment Company) after issuing "09 Lanzhou City Investment debt" and "11 Lanzhou City Investment debt" successfully. To give investors in the current city investment market a rational understanding and not blindly follow the existing rating market and fluctuate. At the same time, it has also given Lanzhou City Investment Corporation a warning to rationally plan and raise funds to invest in construction projects. To ensure the economic and social benefits of the use of funds, to monitor the flow of funds to prevent the occurrence of credit risk.
【学位授予单位】：兰州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.51

【参考文献】