家庭金融资产配置影响因素的实证研究

发布时间：2018-05-02 13:29

本文选题：家庭金融资产配置 + 影响因素　；参考：《中南大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：家庭金融资产配置在家庭内部因素和经济环境共同作用下有着不同表现。家庭较之公司更容易产生行为偏差,因而对家庭金融配置影响因素展开研究非常必要,同时,将系统风险的经济周期阶段指标纳入本文研究框架,具有十分重要的理论现实意义。本文在理论梳理、文献分析及国内外对比分析的基础上,分析了家庭金融资产配置的影响因素,提出了研究假设。在此基础上,通过调查问卷设计,对我国家庭金融资产配置的影响因素展开调查。基于调查的截面数据,利用回归分析及结构方程模型,分析了影响因素与资产配置的关系,随后采用家庭金融资产组合时间序列数据与经济周期,开展相关性分析。结论表明：我国家庭金融资产配置中,个人特征、社保程度、收入、支出和投资因素会对家庭选择不同的投资品产生影响；风险偏好程度与投资正相关；社保程度与资产配置成U型关系；投资者选择不同的金融投资产品具有一定的关联度。根据回归的结论,活期储蓄主要由收入因素决定,股票投资主要由收入因素、活期、转移性支出、定期和支出因素决定,债券投资和投资因素、定期范围、银行理财及黄金投资四个因素相关等。结构方程模型的结论从多因素角度证明了收入对支出和投资的正向影响作用,在1990-2011年间,我国家庭金融资产配置情况较能真实反映经济周期的波动性。从长周期角度而言,中国经济目前处于衰退阶段,根据投资时钟模型,此时到2014年底,投资债券是最佳选择；自2014年之后,中国经济将步入复苏阶段,此时投资股票是最佳选择。以上研究结论有助于发现影响家庭金融资产配置的因素,同时指导家庭根据经济周期进行大类资产配置。从家庭金融资产配置行为出发,探寻我国家庭消费、储蓄、投资决策的科学路径,并为宏观政策制定、金融市场发展和金融机构产品设计提供参考和建议。
[Abstract]:Family financial assets allocation has different performance under the joint action of household internal factors and economic environment. Households are more likely to produce behavioral deviations than companies, so it is necessary to study the influencing factors of household financial allocation. At the same time, the economic cycle indicators of systemic risk are included in the framework of this paper. It has very important theoretical and practical significance. On the basis of theoretical analysis, literature analysis and comparative analysis at home and abroad, this paper analyzes the influencing factors of household financial asset allocation and puts forward research hypotheses. On this basis, through the questionnaire design, the influence factors of household financial assets allocation in China are investigated. Based on the cross-section data of investigation, the relationship between influencing factors and asset allocation is analyzed by means of regression analysis and structural equation model, and then the correlation analysis is carried out by using the time series data of household financial assets combination and the economic cycle. The conclusions are as follows: in the allocation of household financial assets, personal characteristics, social security degree, income, expenditure and investment factors will influence families to choose different investment products, and risk preference degree is positively related to investment. The degree of social security and the allocation of assets are U-shaped, and investors' choice of different financial investment products has certain correlation degree. According to the conclusion of the regression, current savings are mainly determined by income factors, stock investments are mainly determined by income factors, current accounts, transfer expenditures, periodic and expenditure factors, bond investments and investment factors, and periodic ranges. Banking and gold investment related to four factors. The conclusion of the structural equation model proves the positive effect of income on expenditure and investment from the angle of multiple factors. From 1990 to 2011, the allocation of household financial assets in China can truly reflect the volatility of economic cycle. From a long-term perspective, China's economy is in recession, and investment bonds are the best option by the end of 2014, according to the investment clock model; after 2014, the Chinese economy will enter a recovery phase. At this point, investing in stocks is the best option. The above conclusions are helpful to find out the factors that affect household financial asset allocation and guide households to allocate large types of assets according to the economic cycle. Based on the behavior of household financial asset allocation, this paper explores the scientific path of household consumption, savings and investment decision in China, and provides references and suggestions for macro policy formulation, financial market development and product design of financial institutions.
【学位授予单位】：中南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.5

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