债务对进口需求函数的影响——基于欧元区国家对中国进口需求的实证分析

发布时间：2018-05-03 10:48

本文选题：进口需求 + 公共部门债务　；参考：《国际贸易问题》2014年01期

【摘要】：美国次贷危机和欧元区主权债务危机对世界各国进出口贸易造成了负面影响,然而债务对国际贸易的影响在理论研究和实证分析中都鲜有文献涉及。本文提出对进口需求函数的理论研究中应该考虑负债这一影响因素的观点,然后以欧元区国家近10年来对中国的进口为例进行实证分析,在传统的进口需求函数中分别加入公共部门负债和私人部门负债,研究其对进口的影响。结果表明,国家债务对进口需求函数存在影响。其中,公共部门债务随着时间的推移对进口需求产生的影响先负后正、正负交替;而私人部门债务对进口需求产生持续的正影响,但在3季度滞后期产生负影响。
[Abstract]:The subprime mortgage crisis in the United States and the sovereign debt crisis in the euro zone have had a negative impact on the import and export trade of various countries in the world. However, the impact of debt on international trade is rarely covered in theoretical research and empirical analysis. This paper puts forward the view that the influence factor of debt should be taken into account in the theoretical study of import demand function, and then makes an empirical analysis of China's import in recent 10 years. Public sector debt and private sector debt are added to the traditional import demand function to study their effects on imports. The results show that the national debt has an effect on the import demand function. Among them, the impact of public sector debt on import demand is negative first and then positive and negative over time, while private sector debt has a continuous positive impact on import demand, but has a negative effect in the third quarter.
【作者单位】：西南财经大学金融学院;西南财经大学经济管理研究院;
【基金】：国家社科基金项目(批准号:13CJL018) 中央高校基本科研业务费专项基金“2013年度培育项目”(批准号:JKB130936)的阶段性成果西南财经大学“大金融学科学术研究沙龙”的研究支持
【分类号】：F811.5;F752.61

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