并购传闻反驳程度与澄清效果：来源诚实性的调节作用

发布时间：2018-05-03 12:24

本文选题：并购传闻 + 澄清措辞　；参考：《南京大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：并购传闻是一种重要的金融市场传闻,能够对股价造成一定的影响。本文选取217则1999年-2010年我国A股市场关于并购传闻的澄清公告作为样本,分析并购传闻对股价造成的影响以及对澄清公告的有效性进行研究。本文的研究主要集中在三个方面：首先,并购传闻对股价的影响,并购传闻作为一种利好消息,使得股价具有正的异常收益,大多数对并购传闻的研究也证明了这个观点。在中国金融市场中,并购传闻能否具有同样的效果,本文对此进行验证。结果表明,在并购传闻发生日、发生日前和发生日后,股价均具有显著的正异常收益。随后对并购传闻样本进行分类研究,同样得到了类似的结论。其次,并购传闻发生之后,上市公司会针对该并购传闻发布澄清公告,澄清公告既有对传闻进行肯定,也有对传闻进行否认。本文将澄清措辞为否认的澄清公告作为样本研究其澄清效果。根据程度的不同,可以进一步的分为强否认和弱否认。强弱否认产生的澄清效果是否相同是本文的研究重点之一。研究表明,澄清公告能够促使股价的恢复,但仍然存在“澄清公告澄而不清"的现象,强否认的澄清效果要优于弱否认的澄清效果。最后,将来源诚实性作为调节变量,研究其对澄清措辞和澄清公告有效性之间的调节作用。来源诚实性用企业的违规次数来表示,违规次数多说明企业的来源诚实性低,违规次数少,说明企业的来源诚实性高。结果表明,来源诚实性对澄清措辞和澄清公告有效性之间的关系具有调节作用,来源诚实性越高,澄清效果越好。在来源诚实性高和强否认的情况下澄清效果最好；在来源诚实性低和弱否认的情况下,澄清效果最差。本文的研究结论对上市公司如何治理并购传闻和投资者面对并购传闻时如何做出有效的决策具有一定的指导意义。
[Abstract]:The rumor of M & A is an important financial market rumor which can have a certain impact on the stock price. In this paper, we choose 217 1999 -2010 years' clarification bulletin on the rumor of M & A in China's A stock market as a sample, and analyze the impact of the rumor on the stock price and the effectiveness of the Clarification Announcement.
The research of this paper is mainly focused on three aspects:
First, the impact of the rumor on the stock price, the rumor of merger and acquisition as a good news, making the stock price have a positive abnormal return. Most of the study on the rumor of M & A also proved this view. In the Chinese financial market, whether the rumor of merger and acquisition can have the same effect, this article verifies it. The result shows that the birthday is rumored in M & A., The stock price has significant positive abnormal returns before and after the occurrence of the stock market. Then, a similar conclusion is obtained after classifying the sample of the merger rumors.
Secondly, after the rumor of merger and acquisition, the listed company will issue a Clarification Announcement on the rumor of the M & A, clarifying the announcement both affirming the rumor and denying the rumor. This article will clarify the clarification announcement as the denial of the wording as a sample to study its clarification effect. According to the degree, it can be further divided into strong denial and weak. The study shows that clarification announcements can promote the recovery of stock prices, but there are still "clarification announcements of clarification but not clear", and the clarification effect of strong denial is better than that of weak denial.
Finally, the source honesty is considered as an adjustment variable, and the adjustment function between the clarification and the validity of clarification is studied. The source honesty is expressed by the number of violations of the enterprise. The number of violations indicates that the enterprise's source of honesty is low, the number of violations is few, and the source honesty of the enterprise is high. The result shows that the source honesty is clarified. The relationship between the wording and the validity of the clarification bulletin has a moderating effect. The higher the source of honesty is, the better the clarification effect. The clarification effect is the best in the case of high honesty and strong denial, and the worst of the clarification is in the case of low honesty and weak denial.
The conclusion of this paper has certain guiding significance for listed companies to deal with M & A rumors and how to make effective decisions when they face rumors of mergers and acquisitions.

【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F271;F832.51

【参考文献】