我国股票市场发展对经济增长的贡献研究

发布时间：2018-05-11 00:01

本文选题：股票市场发展 + 经济增长　；参考：《河北经贸大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：作为金融市场重要组成部门的股票市场,其在经济发展中的作用不容忽视。通常理论认为,股票市场可通过财富效应、资源配置、风险分散等途径来影响经济。纵观国内大量研究文献,大多学者均采用国外研究方法,利用中国的数据来进行模拟,指标多选取相对指标。本文在前人研究的基础上,利用原始绝对数据,来分析我国股票一级市场和二级市场对经济增长的影响。一级市场用融资额来代表,二级市场用成交额和市值来代表,然后分别考察它们与经济增长(用名义GDP表示)的关系。本文首先根据传统理论认识,采用了最小二乘法进行回归,接着格兰杰因果检验,实证结果显示,我国股票市场融资规模与经济增长存在正相关,但经济增长是直接融资扩大的原因,从而说明股票一级市场更多的体现为融资功能,资源配置功能未能有效发挥。成交金额与经济增长之间不仅存在正相关,而且互为因果关系,从而说明我国股票市场的财富效应较大,股票市场的繁荣不仅可以促进经济的增长,而且经济增长也可以反向促进股票市场的繁荣。股票市场市值与经济增长之间存在正相关,并且经济增长是股票市场规模扩大的原因,从而说明我国股票市场呈现出初级发展阶段的特征。鉴于本文研究的重点在于股票市场发展对经济增长的影响,撇开市值和融资额,对成交量与经济增长建立VAR模型进行脉冲响应分析。结果显示,在滞后2期的情况下,给予市场成交额一个正的冲击,对GDP的影响在第二年达到了最大,并且为负值,从而得到和以往学者研究结论相同,即股票市场的泡沫,将导致经济出现衰退。纵观我国沪深交易所成立以来的股票市场发展,我们发现虽然我国资本市场取得了很大进步,但还有很多制度及法律法规等需要完善,我国股市规模虽然达到了国际前列,但市场效率还很低,股市功能还没能很好的发挥,我国股票市场还是个弱式有效市场。根据本文的研究结论,从我国股票市场的监管到市场主体,再到市场本身及参与者,提出了有针对性的建议。
[Abstract]:As an important part of financial market, stock market plays an important role in economic development. Generally speaking, the stock market can influence the economy by means of wealth effect, resource allocation, risk dispersion and so on. Throughout a large number of domestic research literature, most scholars use foreign research methods, using Chinese data to simulate, the indicators are mostly selected relative indicators. On the basis of previous studies, this paper analyzes the influence of the primary stock market and the secondary market on the economic growth by using the original absolute data. The primary market is represented by the amount of financing, the secondary market is represented by the turnover and the market value, and their relationship with economic growth (expressed as nominal GDP) is examined respectively. Based on the traditional theory, this paper first uses the least square method to regression, then Granger causality test, empirical results show that there is a positive correlation between the scale of financing and economic growth in China's stock market. However, economic growth is the reason of direct financing expansion, which shows that the primary stock market is more reflected in the financing function, and the function of resource allocation can not be played effectively. There is not only a positive correlation between the transaction amount and the economic growth, but also a causal relationship, which shows that the wealth effect of the stock market in our country is great, and the prosperity of the stock market can not only promote the economic growth. And economic growth can also reverse the promotion of the stock market prosperity. There is a positive correlation between market value and economic growth in stock market, and economic growth is the reason for the expansion of stock market. Since the focus of this study is on the impact of stock market development on economic growth, the impulse response analysis of the VAR model of trading volume and economic growth is carried out, regardless of the market value and the amount of financing. The results show that when a positive impact on the market turnover is given, the impact on GDP reaches the maximum in the second year, and is negative, which is the same as the previous research conclusion, that is, the bubble in the stock market. Will lead to a recession. Looking at the stock market development since the establishment of the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange, we find that although China's capital market has made great progress, there are still many systems, laws and regulations that need to be improved. Although the scale of our stock market has reached the international forefront, But the efficiency of the market is still very low, the function of stock market has not been given full play, and the stock market of our country is still a weak efficient market. According to the conclusion of this paper, from the supervision of Chinese stock market to the main body of the market, and then to the market itself and participants, this paper puts forward some specific suggestions.
【学位授予单位】：河北经贸大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F224;F832.51;F124

【相似文献】