经济增长视角下我国地方政府债务问题研究

发布时间：2018-05-13 21:01

本文选题：地方政府债务 + 债务风险　；参考：《华中科技大学》2012年博士论文

【摘要】：近几年来,地方政府投融资平台在应对国际金融危机冲击、促进地方经济增长过程中发挥了重要作用,但由此而引致的地方债务问题愈来愈引起广泛关注。本文从经济增长视角来研究我国地方政府的举债行为及地方债务问题,以在控制财政风险的同时促进经济持续高速增长。本文提出了地方政府债务与经济增长关系的三个理论假设：(1)转型期地方政府举债行为能够促进地区经济增长；(2)在我国市场化程度较高的东部地区,地方债务规模与经济增长之间呈现的是一种倒”U”型关系；(3)在我国市场化程度相对较低的中西部地方,地方政府债务规模与经济增长之间呈现单调递增或单调递减关系。本文从定量的角度,以改革开放以来我国各个省份的市场化程度的高低为分类依据,将我国分为东、中、西三个部分,并分别从三个区域中选取3个典型省份为研究对象,在理论假设的基础上对市场化不同的各个样本省份的地方政府债务规模与经济增长间关系,通过建立在RCK模型框架下的数理模型以及相应的脊线方程实证模型,运用Stata软件进行了SYS-GMM检验,验证了上述的理论假设。本文的研究结论主要有：(1)我国地方政府债务是当前中国经济发展的客观要求,地方政府债务有力推动了地区经济的增长；(2)地方政府债务问题所暴露出来的我国财政分权体制、转移支付制度、官员考核制度以及地方政府预算软约束等突出的体制性问题,以及地方政府投资行为缺乏有效的监督,严重影响我国宏观经济和区域经济的健康持续增长,需要尽快解决；(3)改革开放以来,伴随着我国经济增长不均衡战略的实施,致使我国市场化程度在区域分布上表现为不均匀,因而地方政府举债投资行为在推动经济增长中的作用也存在着区域差异：一方面,在市场化程度较高的东部地区,地方债务规模与经济增长之间呈现的是一种倒”U”型关系；另一方面,在市场化程度较低的中西部地区,地方政府债务规模与经济增长之间呈现单调递增。针对目前我国地方政府债务问题,我们从中央和地方政府两个层面提出了如下政策建议。在中央政府层面：(1)完善我国财政分权制度,理顺中央与地方间的财权与事权关系；(2)完善我国转移支付制度,进一步保障加大对县级政府的转移支付力度；(3)加大对中西部地区的基础设施建设投入和财政支持力度；(4)合理配置财政资金、银行贷款资源在政府和企业间的分配,在支持地方政府基础设施建设的同时,加大对地方小微企业和科技创新企业的资金支持力度; (5)改革和完善地方官员考核制度,硬化地方预算约束; (6)探索建立地方政府发行债券制度,增强地方政府举债融资能力。在地方政府层面：(1)要建立地方政府举债和项目投资的科学决策机制；(2)进一步转变政府职能,理顺政府与市场的关系,更好地发挥市场配置资源的基础性作用; (3)建立健全地方政府债务管理体系,增强我国地方政府债务管理能力。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the local government investment and financing platform has played an important role in dealing with the impact of the international financial crisis and promoting the growth of local economy. However, the local debt problem caused by the local government has attracted more and more attention. This paper studies the debt raising and local debt problems of local government in China from the perspective of economic growth, so as to control the problem of local debt. At the same time, fiscal risks promote sustained and rapid economic growth.
This paper puts forward three theoretical assumptions of the relationship between local government debt and economic growth: (1) the local government debt raising behavior in the transition period can promote regional economic growth; (2) in the eastern region of higher marketization in China, the relationship between local debt scale and economic growth is an inverted "U" relationship; (3) the market process in China There is a monotonous increasing or decreasing monotonous relationship between the size of local government debt and economic growth in a relatively low central and western region.
From the quantitative point of view, based on the classification of the degree of marketization of various provinces in China since the reform and opening up, we divide China into three parts in the East, the middle and the west, and select 3 typical provinces from three regions as the research object, and on the basis of the theoretical hypothesis, the local government debt in the different samples of the different provinces of the market is marketed. The relationship between scale and economic growth, the mathematical model established under the framework of RCK model and the empirical model of the corresponding ridge equation, and the SYS-GMM test using Stata software to verify the above theoretical hypothesis.
The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) the local government debt is the objective requirement of the current economic development in China, the local government debt has greatly promoted the growth of regional economy; (2) the fiscal decentralization system, the transfer payment system, the official assessment system and the soft budget of local government budgets exposed by local government debt problems. The outstanding institutional problems and the lack of effective supervision of local government investment behavior seriously affect the healthy and sustained growth of China's macro-economy and regional economy. (3) since the reform and opening up, with the implementation of the unbalanced strategy of economic growth in China, the degree of marketization in China is shown in the regional distribution. There are regional differences in the role of local government debt investment in promoting economic growth. On the one hand, in the eastern region with higher marketization, the relationship between local debt scale and economic growth is an inverted "U" relationship; on the other hand, in the middle and western regions with lower market level, the local government has a relatively low degree of marketization. There is a monotonous increase in the size of government debt and economic growth.
In view of the current local government debt problem in China, we put forward the following policy suggestions from two levels of central and local governments. At the central government level: (1) improve our fiscal decentralization system and straighten out the relationship between the financial power and the power between the central and the local authorities; (2) improve the transfer payment system in China, and further guarantee the transfer of the government to the county government. Transfer payment strength; (3) increase investment in infrastructure construction and financial support to the central and western regions; (4) allocate financial funds rationally, allocate bank loans between government and enterprises, and support local government infrastructure construction, increase funds support for local small and micro enterprises and scientific and technological innovation enterprises; (5) Leathers and improve local officials assessment system, harden local budget constraints; (6) explore the establishment of local government issuance of bond system, enhance local government debt financing capacity. (1) to establish a local government debt and project investment scientific decision-making mechanism; (2) to further change the government functions, to straighten out the government and the market. We should better play the fundamental role of market allocation of resources; (3) establish and improve the local government debt management system, and enhance our local government debt management capabilities.

【学位授予单位】：华中科技大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F812.5

【引证文献】