中国股票市场投资收益及风险关系的研究

发布时间：2018-05-14 01:05

本文选题：股票二级市场 + 投资盈利方法论　；参考：《天津大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着中国股票市场的日趋成熟,越来越多的机构投资者的参与使得股票市场对于经济变化的反应更具规律性和趋势性,但相对于发达国家的成熟市场,我国股票市场还存在一定的缺陷,在目前我国新兴+转轨的股票市场中,面对纷繁复杂的内外因变化,如何进行信息的有效筛选、更加理性的进行投资决策是越来越多市场参与者所关注的问题。本文以具有一定基础知识背景的小型私募和个人大户的角度出发,利用自上而下的分析方法,对影响我国股票市场的风险因素进行分析,通过风险等级的确定和风险偏好的选择来指导投资者进行投资决策。主要研究内容包括: 1.在经济学、货币银行学、财政学、投资学、金融市场学、投资组合与风险控制的基础上,对股票涨跌原理进行初探,成为建立风险——收益分析体系的依据。 2.通过对国际市场、经济周期、宏观政策与A股市场的关系研究,在历史数据的支撑下,找到了一定的规律性变化,并分析了这种规律的成因和传导作用,以宏观的视角判断A股市场的未来一段时间的投资方向选择。 3.将宏观经济变化影响下的行业选择引入这一风险——收益体系中来,使投资者在完成宏观判断基础上,对未来的投资标的选择更具方向性。 4.依靠波浪理论对市场群体行为的描述,将宏观判断、中观选择与行情描述相结合,创新的将传统的投资组合与波浪理论指导下的行情架构相结合,最终形成具有直接应用性、操作性的投资方法研究体系。本文针对中国“新兴+转轨”的股票二级市场特点,将西方投资价值理论与市场金融行为学理论相结合,从风险判定角度提供盈利依据和方法,为中国A股二级市场投资盈利方法提供指导体系。
[Abstract]:With the maturity of China's stock market, more and more institutional investors participate in the stock market response to economic changes more regular and trend, but compared with the mature market in developed countries, There are still some defects in the stock market of our country. In the new stock market of our country, how to screen the information effectively in the face of complicated internal and external changes, More rational investment decision-making is the concern of more and more market participants. This paper, from the angle of small private equity and individual large investors with certain basic knowledge background, uses top-down analysis method to analyze the risk factors that affect the stock market in our country. Investors are guided to make investment decisions through the determination of risk level and the choice of risk preference. The main research contents include: 1. On the basis of economics, monetary and banking, finance, investment, financial market, portfolio and risk control, this paper probes into the principle of stock fluctuation and falls, and becomes the basis of establishing the risk- return analysis system. 2. Through the research on the relationship between international market, economic cycle, macro policy and A share market, under the support of historical data, we find some regular changes, and analyze the cause of formation and transmission function of this law. From a macro perspective to judge the A-share market for a period of time to choose the direction of investment. 3. The industry choice under the influence of macroeconomic change is introduced into the risk-income system, which makes investors choose the future investment target more directionally on the basis of completing the macro judgment. 4. Relying on wave theory to describe market group behavior, combining macro judgment, meso selection and market description, innovatively combining the traditional investment portfolio with the market structure under the guidance of wave theory, finally forming a direct application. Operational investment method research system. In view of the characteristics of the secondary stock market in China's "emerging transition", this paper combines the western theory of investment value with the theory of market financial behavior, and provides the profit basis and method from the angle of risk determination. For the Chinese A-share secondary market investment profit methods to provide guidance system.
【学位授予单位】：天津大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F224;F832.51

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