我国城投债的信用风险和可行规模研究

发布时间：2018-05-15 10:33

本文选题：城投债 + 地方政府融资平台　；参考：《上海交通大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：欧债危机的爆发为我国地方政府性债务问题敲响了警钟。虽然我国中央政府已经对地方政府融资平台加以清理整顿，2012年地方城投债的发行规模还是达到了新的历史高度。我国新一届中央经济工作会议指出，“要高度重视财政金融领域存在的风险隐患，坚决守住不发生系统性和区域性金融风险的底线”。在这样的背景下研究我国城投债的信用风险和可行规模具有重要的现实意义。本文首先对我国城投债市场的现状和问题加以阐述。目前我国城投债市场存在区域间发债规模不平衡、信用评级虚高、发行主体资质下移等问题。接着，通过理论和实证分析发现“土地财政”和“工业化率”两个因素与一个地区城投债的发行规模显著相关：土地财政越高，工业化率指标越高，该区域的城投债发行规模越大。在此基础上，进一步研究了影响城投债信用风险的因素，发现财政收入尤其是土地财政收入是影响城投债信用风险的主要因素。当地区的经济发展目标和地方财力形成错配时，政府信用会开始下降。政府无法凭借信用以发新债偿还旧债的方式进行融资，地方债务风险转化成区域性金融风险。之后，本文利用修正的KMV模型测算了2014年长三角地区的三个省市城投债的债务违约风险并给出了不同担保比率下各地区的可行债务规模。最后，，在比较和借鉴国际发达债券市场经验的基础上提出防范我国城投债信用违约风险的意见和建议。
[Abstract]:The outbreak of the European debt crisis has sounded the alarm bell for the local government debt problem in our country. Although the central government has cleaned up the local government financing platform, the issuance scale of local city investment debt has reached a new historical high in 2012. The new Central Economic work Conference pointed out that "we should attach great importance to the risks and hidden dangers in the financial and financial fields, and resolutely guard against the bottom line of avoiding systemic and regional financial risks." Under this background, it is of great practical significance to study the credit risk and feasible scale of our country's city investment debt. This article first of all to our country city investment bond market present situation and the question carries on the elaboration. At present, there are some problems in the bond market of our country, such as the imbalance of regional bond issuance scale, the false credit rating and the lower qualification of the issuer. Then, through theoretical and empirical analysis, it is found that two factors of "land finance" and "industrialization rate" are significantly related to the issuance scale of a region's urban investment debt: the higher the land finance, the higher the industrialization rate index. The bigger the issuance of city debt in the region. On this basis, the paper further studies the factors that affect the credit risk of city investment debt, and finds that the financial revenue, especially the land revenue, is the main factor that affects the credit risk of city investment debt. When the region's economic development goals and local financial mismatch, government credit will begin to decline. The government can't use credit to pay off old and new debt, and local debt risk turns into regional financial risk. Then, using the modified KMV model, this paper calculates the default risk of the debt of three provinces and cities in the Yangtze River Delta region in 2014 and gives the feasible debt scale of each region under different guarantee ratio. Finally, on the basis of comparing and drawing lessons from the experience of international developed bond market, the paper puts forward some suggestions and suggestions on how to prevent the credit default risk of our country's city investment bond.
【学位授予单位】：上海交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F812.5

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