地方政府债务风险评估与预警机制研究

发布时间：2018-05-21 11:16

本文选题：地方政府性债务 + 债务风险　；参考：《东北财经大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着社会经济的不断发展和城市规模的大力扩张,我国地方政府的举债规模也在不断增大,并逐渐成为了影响我国经济复苏和体制转轨的重大困扰因素,而地方政府债务风险问题也成为了我国当前不可避免的社会事实。在2013年4月的博鳌年会上,《债务风险：下一个爆发点》作为一个亚洲分论坛的探讨主题,将我国政府债务风险尤其是地方政府债务风险推到了风口浪尖上来。而我国在2013年财政预算草案中也指出,目前应进一步加强地方政府性债务管理,坚决制止某些地方政府的违法担保承诺及违规融资行为,逐步将地方政府债务收支分类纳入到政府预算管理中来,构建出科学有效的地方政府债务风险评估与预警机制,并强调只有这样,我们才有可能做到政府债务风险的科学防范与有效化解,才能维持社会经济金融的平稳运行状态。然而就当前情形来看,虽然我国国内关于地方政府债务风险评估与预警机制的理论研究并不算少,但现实提出的风险评估思路却不够明确有效,且相应的预警指标体系及设计步骤也不够深入具体；同时,我国在这一部分的研究内容大都停留在了理论层面,而与实际的联系程度却不够紧密,这些现实情形的存在,均不利于我国地方政府构建出符合其经济实力和社会发展所需的风险评估与预警机制,更不利于相关政府找到科学合理解决问题的有效途径。在这种情况下,本文选择我国地方政府的债务风险作为具体研究对象,针对地方政府债务风险的评估与预警机制进行理论和实践上的细致研究,希望能有助于我国地方政府债务风险的控制和防范。具体地,全文共包括以下六部分内容：第一章,导论。这一部分主要介绍了本文的选题背景及研究意义、国内外相关文献综述、论文的研究思路及研究方法,并对本文的创新点和不足之处作了简要说明。第二章,地方政府债务风险评估的理论分析。这一部分从风险与不确定性的概念入手,在地方政府双重主体身份的假定上对地方政府债务风险的内涵作了具体界定；同时,该部分还在地方政府债务分类的基础上提出了我国的地方政府债务矩阵,并结合Hana的财政风险对冲矩阵设计了对应的地方政府资产矩阵,以期通过资产负债的评估路径对我国地方政府的债务风险作出大致准确的评估。第三章,地方政府债务风险预警体系架构。这一部分在对地方政府债务风险预警体系作出相关介绍的理论基础上,强调从实际出发构建出符合我国地方政府的债务风险预警机制。该部分还设计出了一套关于债务风险预警的全口径指标体系,并相应给出了预警指标的筛选原则和筛选方法、指标权重的确定方法以及指标值风险区间的设置方法。第四章,我国地方政府债务风险的实证评估。这一部分是对前面第二章相关理论内容的具体实证分析,即在对我国地方政府负债情形和资产状况做出确切统计或大致估算的前提下,以地方政府资产负债率等相关评价指标来判断我国地方政府债务风险的存在状态和发展趋势。第五章,我国地方政府债务风险预警的模拟。这一部分在提出有条件建立地方政府债务风险预警体系的基础上,进行了预警指标体系的具体构建工作,即采用审计署等部门公布的2006-2010年间的地方政府性债务相关数据,先通过聚类分析筛选出了简化的预警指标,再通过临界值确定及因子分析对所筛选出的指标进行了单项因子和综合因子的风险评价。此外,文章还通过BP神经网络建立起的预警模型对未来年度的债务风险进行了预警分析,以便我们日后在面对地方政府债务风险或突发性政府债务危机时能够冷静分析并沉着应对。第六章,支撑地方政府债务风险评估与预警的财政制度安排。这一部分主要介绍了地方政府债务风险评估与预警机制的配套制度建设,包括实施全口径预算管理制度和财政中期预算制度,改革政府预算会计制度,建立债务信息披露制度、债务担保与偿债制度以及债务风险监管责任制度等等。
[Abstract]:With the development of the social economy and the great expansion of the scale of the city , the scale of the local government ' s debt burden is constantly increasing , and the local government debt risk is gradually becoming the inevitable social fact in our country .

However , in the current situation , although our country ' s theory research on local government debt risk assessment and early warning mechanism is not small , the present risk assessment idea is not clear and effective , and the corresponding early warning index system and design step are not enough .
At the same time , the research content of our country in this part is mostly at the theoretical level , but not close enough to the actual contact degree . The existence of these realistic situations is not conducive to the local government ' s construction of the risk assessment and early warning mechanism which accords with its economic strength and social development . In this case , the paper selects the debt risk of local government as a specific research object , and makes theoretical and practical research on the evaluation and early warning mechanism of local government debt risk . It is hoped that it will help the local government of our country to control and prevent the debt risk .

In particular , the full text consists of the following six parts :

Chapter One , Introduction . This part mainly introduces the background and significance of the topic selection , the overview of relevant literatures at home and abroad , the research thinking and research methods of the thesis , and gives a brief description of the innovation points and shortcomings of this paper .

The second chapter is the theoretical analysis of the local government debt risk assessment . This part starts with the concept of risk and uncertainty , and defines the connotation of local government debt risk on the assumption of double principal identity of local government ;
At the same time , the part also puts forward the local government debt matrix on the basis of the local government debt classification , and designs the corresponding local government asset matrix according to Hana ' s fiscal risk hedging matrix , so as to make a generally accurate assessment of the debt risk of local government through the assessment path of assets and liabilities .

In chapter 3 , the structure of the local government debt risk early warning system is put forward . This part is based on the introduction of the local government debt risk early warning system , and emphasizes the construction of the early warning mechanism which accords with the local government ' s debt risk from the actual departure . The part also designs a set of full - caliber index system which accords with the early warning of the debt risk , and gives the screening principle and the screening method of the early warning index , the determination method of the index weight and the setting method of the index value risk interval .

The fourth chapter is an empirical assessment of the risk of local government debt in our country . This part is a concrete demonstration analysis of the relevant theoretical contents of the second chapter , that is , to judge the existence state and the developing trend of the local government debt risk in our country under the premise that the local government debt situation and the asset condition are accurately counted or roughly estimated .

Chapter 5 , the simulation of local government debt risk early warning in our country . Based on the establishment of the local government debt risk early warning system , this part carries out the concrete construction of the early warning index system , namely , the risk evaluation of single factor and comprehensive factor is carried out by cluster analysis . In addition , the article also makes an early warning analysis on the debt risk in the future through the threshold value determination and factor analysis , so that we can calmly analyze and respond to the debt risk of local government or the sudden government debt crisis .

Chapter 6 supports the financial system arrangement of the local government debt risk assessment and early warning . This part mainly introduces the supporting system construction of the local government debt risk assessment and early warning mechanism , including the implementation of the full - caliber budget management system and the financial medium - term budget system , the reform of the government budget accounting system , the establishment of the debt information disclosure system , the debt guarantee and debt service system and the debt risk supervision responsibility system , etc .
【学位授予单位】：东北财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F812.5

【参考文献】