中国股市时间节律和周期理论与实证研究

发布时间：2018-05-23 22:11

本文选题：《周易》 + 斐波那契数列　；参考：《青岛科技大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：本论文以上证综合指数每日行情的时间序列为研究对象,以《周易》与斐波那契数列为主要理论基础,提出了全新的中国股市时间节律理论和中国股市周期理论,不仅丰富和发展了现有的证券投资分析理论,也对投资者的短期和长期投资行为有重要的指导意义。首先,新发现中国股市存在显著的以89交易日为单元的时间节律,中国23年的股市历程可以划分为62个时间节律,依次为强上升型18个,标准上升型8个,顶盘整型10个,强下降型7个,标准下降型6个,底盘整型13个。其次,以股市时间节律为基础,新发现中国股市存在显著的周期性,中国23年的股市历程可以划分四个周期。每一周期分为六至八波段,最大特征是第一波段有较大幅度的上升,第二波段有较大幅度的下降,其余各波段皆为调整,周期延续时间为4-8年。再次,根据股市周期理论中不同波段的特征,得到第一波段与第三波段的坚决持仓策略、第二波段的坚决空仓策略、第八波段的筹备建仓策略、其余各波段的谨慎操作策略的结论。最后,展望中国股市的前景,提出中国股市周期Ⅳ已经或即将结束、周期V已经或即将来临的两种可能性,分别为可能性一：周期Ⅳ由八波组成,第七、第八波均由一个股市时间节律构成,周期Ⅳ大约在2013年八月中上旬结束。可能性二：周期Ⅳ由六波组成,周期V自2012.12.4已经开启,股市经过顶盘整型之后股指或股价K线会出现由快速上升,到稳步上升,最后发展到疯狂上升的牛市阶段。
[Abstract]:On the basis of "Zhouyi" and Fibonacci series as the main theoretical basis, this paper puts forward a new theory of time rhythm of Chinese stock market and the theory of Chinese stock market cycle, which not only enriches and develops the existing theory of securities investment analysis, but also the short-term and long-term investment of investors. Capital behavior has important guiding significance.
First, it is found that China's stock market has a significant time rhythm with 89 trading days as a unit. China's stock market history can be divided into 62 time rhythms for 23 years, in turn, strong rising 18, standard rising 8, top plate integer 10, strong descending 7, standard descending 6 and chassis integral 13. Secondly, based on stock market time rhythm. The new discovery of Chinese stock market has a remarkable periodicity. China's stock market process can be divided into four cycles for 23 years. Each cycle is divided into six to eight bands. The largest feature is a large rise in the first band, a large decline in the second band, the rest of the bands are all adjusted, and the duration of the cycle is 4-8 years.
Thirdly, according to the characteristics of different bands in the stock market cycle theory, we get the resolute holding strategy of the first band and the third band, the resolute empty warehouse strategy in the second band, the preparation strategy of the eighth band and the conclusion of the cautious operation strategy of the other bands.
Finally, looking forward to the future of China's stock market, the two possibilities that China's stock market cycle has already or are about to end, and the two possibilities that have been or are coming, are the possibility that the cycle IV consists of eight waves, seventh, eighth waves are composed of a time rhythm of the stock market, and the cycle IV is ended in early mid August 2013. The possibility is two: week. The period IV is composed of six waves, and the cycle V has been opened from 2012.12.4. After the stock market, the stock index or the K line will rise rapidly from the stock market to the steady rise, and finally to the crazily rising bull market.
【学位授予单位】：青岛科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.51;F224

【参考文献】