中国二板市场发展对区域经济增长差异的影响

发布时间：2018-05-28 16:31

本文选题：二板市场 + 区域经济增长差异　；参考：《复旦大学》2012年博士论文

【摘要】：本文基于一个背景——二板市场成立与快速发展,一个现象——04到06年区域经济增长差异转而缩小,引出一个问题——中国二板市场发展是否会缩小区域经济增长差异,得到一个结论——二板市场发展缩小了区域经济增长差异,提出两项建议——发展二板市场、推动落后地区实体经济转变提升。首先,本文回顾了中国二板市场成立以来的发展情况,发现有两个特点：是成长较快,上市公司数量从04年6月的10家上升至2012年1月的936家,市值从刚成立时的165亿元人民币上升至当前的近四万亿；二是上市公司分布不均衡,即行业分布和区域分布不均衡。而与此同时,区域经济增长差异在2004到06年间转而出现下降趋势。笔者对此进行了相关性分析,发现两者之间的相关系数为-0.7～-0.8之间。这引发笔者对两者关系进行研究。首先,笔者利用格兰杰因果关系检验、边限协整检验和ARDL估计等实证方法对于二板市场发展是否存在缩小区域经济增长差异的作用进行检验,结果表明,二板市场市值每增加1%,各省GDP总量变异系数下降0.0399,二板市场市值每增加1亿元,各省人均GDP变异系数下降0.337E-5。从逻辑上讲,二板市场缩小区域经济增长差异,必然是通过对经济增长有影响,且在各地区影响不同来实现。笔者分别考察了二板市场发展对经济增长的影响和对各地区经济增长的影响的差异。ARDL模型结果显示,二板市场市值每增加1亿元,GDP大约增加1.2679亿元。随后,本文通过变系数面板模型发现,二板市场发展对落后地区经济增长的推动作用更大,对发达地区经济增长的推动作用相对较小,从而二板市场的发展引起了区域经济增长差异的缩小。此后三章,笔者从区域经济结构差异的角度分析了这一机制为什么会发生以及如何发生第四章从各地区中小企业发展水平差异的角度解释二板市场为何会对落后地区促进作用大而对发达地区促进作用小从而缩小区域经济增长差异。通过统计分析,笔者发现东部省市中小企业发展水平高,而中西部地区中小企业发展水平低,但相对于人均GDP差异来说,中小企业发展水平差异要小。由于二板市场按照各省市中小企业发展水平配置资源而非按照人均GDP配置资源,因此,二板市场对落后地区的推动作用就相对更大。笔者通过理论分析证明了这一结论,当中小企业发展水平差异与区域经济增长差异的比值小于某一个临界值时,二板市场发展会缩小区域经济增长差异,当大于临界值时会扩大差异。随后本文通过实证模型验证了这一结论。而从机制上来说,二板市场发展对落后地区的中小企业的促进作用更大,使得区域中小企业发展水平差异缩小,而中小企业本身即为经济的一个组成部分,其他条件不变的情况下,区域中小企业发展水平差异缩小将意味着区域经济增长差异的缩小。第五章和第六章则分别从区域产业结构差异和区域金融发展水平差异的角度进行分析。从区域产业结构差异的角度来说,同第四章相似,理论上亦存在-个临界值,只有当区域产业结构差异小于临界值时,二板市场才会缩小区域经济增长差异,实证模型支持这一结论,机制上,二板市场主要是通过推动产业转移来实现落后地区更快的产业升级,从而缩小产业结构差异、缩小区域经济增长差异的；从金融发展水平差异的角度来说,存在同样相似的临界值,实证模型亦支持二板市场缩小区域经济增长差异,从机制上来说,二板市场是通过对落后地区融资的改善程度更大,从而对落后地区的投资推动作用更大来缩小区域经济增长差异的。全文最后,笔者认为缩小区域经济增长差异可以从两方面着手：一是促进二板市场发展,二是推动落后地区实体经济转变提升,缩小区域经济结构差异。
[Abstract]:Based on a background - the establishment and rapid development of the second board market, a phenomenon - the difference in regional economic growth from 04 to 06 years has been reduced, which leads to a problem - whether the development of China's second board market will reduce the difference in regional economic growth, and get a conclusion that the development of the second board market has narrowed the difference in regional economic growth. The two proposal is to develop the second board market and promote the transformation and upgrading of the real economy in the backward areas.
First, this paper reviews the development of China's second board market since its establishment, and found that there are two characteristics: the growth is fast, the number of listed companies rose from 10 in June to 936 in January 2012, the market value has risen from 16 billion 500 million yuan to the current of nearly four trillion, and the two is the disequilibrium of the listed companies, that is, the industry points. The distribution of cloth and region is not balanced. At the same time, the regional economic growth difference between 2004 and 06 turns down from 2004 to 06. The correlation analysis between the author and the author finds that the correlation coefficient between the two is between the two. This leads to the author's study on the relationship between the two.
First, the author uses Grainger causality test, edge cointegration test and ARDL estimation to test whether the development of the second board market exists to reduce the difference in regional economic growth. The results show that the market value of the second board market is increased by 1%, the coefficient of variation of GDP in the provinces is reduced by 0.0399, and the market value of the second board market is increased by 100 million yuan. The per capita GDP coefficient of variation in each province decreased by 0.337E-5.
Logically, the second board market narrowing the difference in regional economic growth is bound to be achieved through the impact on economic growth and in different regions. The author examines the difference between the impact of the development of the second board market on economic growth and the impact of the economic growth on the economic growth of various regions. The.ARDL model shows that the market value of the second board market increases by 100 million. Yuan, GDP increases about 126 million 790 thousand yuan. Then, through the variable coefficient panel model, it is found that the development of the second board market has a greater role in promoting the economic growth of the backward areas, and is relatively small in promoting the economic growth of the developed regions. Thus the development of the second board market has caused the narrowing of the regional economic growth difference. In the following three chapters, the author from the region From the perspective of economic structural differences, this paper analyzes why and how this mechanism occurs.
The fourth chapter explains why the second board market will play a great role in the backward areas and reduce the difference of regional economic growth in the developed areas from the perspective of the difference of the development level of small and medium-sized enterprises in various regions. But it is low, but relative to the difference of GDP per capita, the difference of the development level of small and medium-sized enterprises is small. Because the second board market configuring the resources according to the development level of small and medium-sized enterprises in various provinces and cities rather than the per capita GDP allocation of resources, the second board market has a greater role in promoting the backward areas. When the ratio of the difference between the development level of small enterprises and the regional economic growth is less than a certain critical value, the development of the second board market will reduce the difference in regional economic growth, and it will expand the difference when the critical value is larger than the critical value. Then, the conclusion is verified by the empirical model. And the second board market is developed to the small and medium enterprises in the backward areas. The promotion of the industry is more important, which makes the difference in the development level of small and medium-sized enterprises in the region narrowing, and the small and medium enterprises themselves are a part of the economy. Under the same conditions, the narrowing of the development level of the small and medium-sized enterprises in the region will mean the reduction of the regional economic growth difference.
The fifth chapter and the sixth chapter are analyzed from the angle of regional industrial structure difference and the difference of regional financial development level respectively. From the angle of regional industrial structure difference, it is similar to the fourth chapter, and there is a critical value in theory. Only when the regional industrial structure difference is less than the boundary value, the second board market will reduce the regional economic growth. The empirical model supports this conclusion. On the mechanism, the second board market is mainly through promoting industrial transfer to achieve faster industrial upgrading in backward areas, thus reducing industrial structure differences and reducing regional economic growth differences. From the perspective of financial development level, there are similar critical values and empirical models are supported. The second board market reduces the difference in regional economic growth. From the mechanism, the second board market has a greater improvement in the financing of the backward areas, thus promoting the investment in the backward areas to reduce the regional economic growth difference.
Finally, the author believes that the reduction of regional economic growth differences can start from two aspects: first, to promote the development of the second board market, the two is to promote the transformation and promotion of the real economy in the backward areas, and to narrow the regional economic structure differences.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.51;F124

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