金融危机、产权性质与上市公司盈余管理行为

发布时间：2018-05-29 17:34

本文选题：金融危机 + 盈余管理　；参考：《西南财经大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：“盈余管理”的研究最早起源于Watts和Zimmerman的研究,他们发现公司的管理层会在会计准则内通过选择对自己有利的会计方法进而改变公司的财务报告结果。目前学界的研究按照实施后所带来的后果是否直接影响公司的经营活动现金流将盈余管理分为了两大类：一类是应计盈余管理(Accrual based earnings management),另一类是真实盈余管理(Real earnings management)。前者主要是指管理层利用会计准则将公司的盈余进行跨期平滑,并不影响公司现金流和盈余总额；后者不仅影响当期的盈余,同时还会影响未来各期的现金流。实际上,“盈余管理”现象不仅干扰了投资者的决策、而且影响了证券市场的正常的运作机制、更弱化了资本市场的有效性。国外学者们对盈余管理的影响因素展开了深入而又细致的研究,成果可谓百家争鸣、眼花缭乱。目前的研究都基于常态环境下,而2008年席卷全球的金融危机对我国的上市公司在销售市场与资本市场都产生了巨大的冲击,因此对“管理层两种盈余管理水平有没有受到危机的影响?”进行研究就具有非常重要的实践意义。历数我国的证券市场发展历程,扩容速度之快前所未有,短短二十余年上市公司已经发展到了3600多家,总市值约为24万亿,高速发展所带来的后果之一就是制度建设滞后；而我国证券市场的定位是作为国有公司融资平台而建立的,而非市场经济发展到一定程度的自然产物,这与生俱来的时代特征重要表现就是“国有股权牢牢占据控制地位”。而已有的研究表明,随着市场经济的高速发展,这种特殊产权性质所带来的种种弊端日益凸现：上市公司的管理缺位、短期行为、以及盈余信息质量无法令投资者满意等。之前有国内学者从公司治理的角度展开了对“盈余管理”与“产权性质”的研究,但是他们的研究背景基于常态环境下,研究范围主要是应计盈余管理,而目前国外的研究却表明真实盈余管理的行为在现实中更为广泛。因此综合考虑两种盈余管理方式的基础上,对我国的不同产权性质的公司两种盈余管理水平在危机前后的变化深入研究具有现实意义。基于上述的研究背景,本文将盈余管理活动置于金融危机爆发前后的大背景之下,对“应计盈余管理与真实盈余管理”在危机前后的变化进行探讨研究,提出了主要的研究问题。金融危机的爆发分别对应计盈余与真实盈余管理产生怎样的影响?区分产权性质后考察中国上市公司(国有股权与非国有股权),其管理层在选择盈余管理方式时是否存在差异,受到金融危机的冲击后有没有发生改变? 综上所述,本文研究了两个问题：1、两种盈余管理水平在金融危机前后是否存在差异性。2、产权性质与两种盈余管理之间的关系是否受到金融危机的影响。本文的研究思路是：首先从“盈余管理”和“产权性质与盈余管理的关系”以及“金融危机与盈余管理、产权性质的关系”三方面对国内外已有的研究成果进行了梳理,以准确了解和掌握目前理论界在此领域研究进展与现状；之后从理论出发对本文研究所涉及的“盈余管理”、“产权性质”、“金融危机”三个概念以及之间关系进行探讨与分析。在上述的文献综述与理论分析基础之上,借鉴国内外成熟的研究理论与模型,分析我国产权性质与盈余管理之间的关系,对实证研究进行设计并提出本文的假设。之后依次构建回归模型、界定变量、选取适当的样本、收集足量数据并进行多元线性回归以验证上述假设。最后结合理论分析与实证结果,归纳总结本文的结论,反思本文不足之处,并指明进一步的研究方向。本文研究结构框架如下：第一章,导论。简要介绍本文的研究背景与意义、研究思路与框架、研究方法以及本文的可能的创新之处。第二章,文献综述。本章对“盈余管理”和“产权性质与盈余管理的关系”以及“金融危机与盈余管理、产权性质关系”三方面的研究成果进行了综述。第三章,理论分析。本章从理论上对本文研究所涉及的“盈余管理”、“产权性质”、“金融危机”三个概念以及之间关系进行了探讨与分析。首先从概念、理论基础以及对两种盈余管理选择次序三个方面对盈余管理的相关理论问题进行了回顾；其次从终极产权理论对我国产权性质进行了划分,并联系实际对目前上市公司股权特征进行了归纳；再者对有关产权性质与盈余管理的关联性现有研究理论进行了梳理；最后对金融危机对我国上市公司造成的影响的时点进行了界定。第四章,研究设计与提出假设。本章主要介绍了本文的实证研究的设计部分,包括分析思路、研究问题与提出假设、样本的选取与数据的来源,计量模型的构建与变量的界定。第五章,实证研究。本章分别对所选取的样本数据依次进行了均值检验、分组差异性检验、多变量回归分析、稳健性检验。最后根据实证结果分析了不同产权性质公司在金融危机前后,两种盈余管理水平的变化。第六章,研究结论与政策意见。结合前文的定性的理论分析与定量的实证研究结果,本章对研究结论进行归纳总结,希望能够为政策制定者与监管部门在提高上市公司盈余报告质量、保护投资者以及完善国内资本市场提供一些有益的建议。本文研究结论主要有： (1)首先,与张俊瑞、李彬(2009)的研究结果相一致,证实了具有保盈、融资、保增长动机的上市公司的管理层普遍存在应计盈余管理与真实盈余管理的行为,说明了真实盈余管理行为在危机前后普遍存在。 (2)其次本文发现：金融危机的爆发抑制了应计盈余管理的水平,真实盈余管理水平得到了增强。在危机环境下证实了Zang(2007)提出的盈余管理“啄序理论”,即管理层对真实盈余管理的决策时间优先于应计盈余管理。进一步研究还发现管理层对于真实盈余管理的三种常见手段也存在偏好,操控酌量性费用的手段在危机前后都普遍被使用,生产操控由于成本高的原因在危机前较少使用,危机后操控水平显著提高。 (3)最后将产权性质与盈余管理方式之间的关系置于金融危机下研究,得出的结论是：常态环境下,国有股权公司真实盈余管理水平显著高于非国有股权公司,非国有股权公司应计盈余管理水平显著高于国有股权公司；危机环境下不同产权性质公司两种盈余管理水平趋于一致。该结论与产权理论中的推导相符合,并拓展了目前理论界基于常态下对产权性质与盈余管理的研究成果。本文的理论贡献在于：在借鉴国外已有的研究成果的基础上,将对产权性质与盈余管理相关关系的研究放在了金融危机背景下,丰富了国内关于盈余管理的研究,有利于拓展相关研究和理论。具体来说主要体现在： (1)目前理论界关于对两种盈余管理的研究都是基于常态环境假设下展开的,金融危机改变了公司经营环境,那么管理层盈余管理的行为与常态是否存在差异。 (2)已有关于产权性质与盈余管理关系的研究,绝大多数是从“应计盈余管理”的角度展开,本文将“真实盈余管理”纳入考察范围,权衡考虑产权性质与两种盈余管理的关系。另外,本文所做的研究有利于拓展相关理论,所得结论对政策制定具有一定的启示意义。本文研究局限：首先样本数据可能不够精确,金融危机的影响真正传导到我国是2008年四季度,而且如今对我国经济仍存在影响,本文选取2008至2010三年作为危机后的样本,可能导致结果不够精确,存在一定的偏差。其次在模型设计方面还存有争议。本文对于应计盈余管理与真实盈余管理分别选取了修正Jones模型与Roychowdhury的模型,但是目前理论界对真实盈余管理的计量方式还存有疑问,同时国外的模型拿到中国的土壤里是否会水土不服,还值得进一步的研究。
[Abstract]:The study of "earnings management" was first originated from the research of Watts and Zimmerman. They found that the management of the company would change the results of the company's financial report by choosing a favorable accounting method in the accounting standards. The earnings management is divided into two categories: one is Accrual based earnings management, and the other is the real earnings management (Real earnings management). The former mainly refers to the management using accounting standards to smooth the company's earnings across the period without affecting the company's cash flow and the total surplus; the latter is not the same. It only affects the current surplus, but also affects the cash flow in the future.
In fact, the phenomenon of "earnings management" not only interferes with the decision of the investors, but also affects the normal operating mechanism of the stock market, and weakens the effectiveness of the capital market. The foreign scholars have carried out a thorough and meticulous study of the factors affecting the earnings management. In the normal environment, the financial crisis sweeping the world in 2008 has made a great impact on the market and capital market of the listed companies in China. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to study "whether the management level of two kinds of earnings management is affected by the crisis?"
In the course of the development of China's securities market, the speed of expansion is unprecedented. In more than twenty years, the listed companies have developed to more than 3600, with a total market value of about 24 trillion. One of the consequences of the high speed development is the lagging of the system construction; and the positioning of the securities market in China is established as a financing platform for the state-owned companies, and not The market economy has developed to a certain degree of natural products. The inherent characteristic of the era is that "state ownership is firmly in control position". The existing research shows that with the rapid development of market economy, the various disadvantages of this special property right are increasingly highlighted: the lack of management of listed companies, short term And the quality of earnings information can not satisfy investors.
Domestic scholars have previously studied the "earnings management" and "property rights" from the perspective of corporate governance, but their research background is based on the normal environment, the scope of the study is mainly accrued earnings management, but the current foreign research shows that the real earnings management behavior is more extensive in reality. Therefore, the comprehensive consideration is given. On the basis of the two methods of earnings management, it is of practical significance to study the changes of two earnings management levels of companies with different property rights in China before and after the crisis.
Based on the background of the above research, this paper puts the earnings management activities under the background of the financial crisis, and discusses the changes of "accrued earnings management and real earnings management" before and after the crisis, and puts forward the main research questions. How do the outbreaks of the financial crisis correspond to the earnings management and the real earnings management What is the difference between the Chinese listed companies (state owned and non state ownership) after the distinction of property rights, and whether there is a difference in the choice of earnings management in the management of the Chinese listed companies, and has it changed after the impact of the financial crisis?
To sum up, two questions are studied in this paper: 1, whether two kinds of earnings management levels have difference.2 before and after the financial crisis, whether the relationship between property property and two kinds of earnings management is affected by the financial crisis.
The research ideas of this paper are: first, from the three aspects of "surplus management" and "the relationship between property property and earnings management" and "the relationship between financial crisis and earnings management, property right nature", the research achievements at home and abroad are combed in order to accurately understand and grasp the current research progress and status of the field of theory in this field; From the theory, the three concepts and relations between "earnings management", "property property" and "financial crisis" are discussed and analyzed. On the basis of the literature review and theoretical analysis mentioned above, we use the mature research theories and models at home and abroad to analyze the relationship between property rights and earnings management in China. Then we design the empirical research and put forward the hypothesis of this paper. Then we build the regression model, define the variables, select the appropriate samples, collect sufficient data and carry out multiple linear regression to verify the above hypothesis. Finally, the conclusions are summarized, the shortcomings of this article are summed up, and the inadequacies of this paper are reflected, and the progress is pointed out. The research direction of the step.
The framework of this paper is as follows:
The first chapter, introduction, briefly introduces the background and significance of this study, research ideas and framework, research methods and possible innovations.
The second chapter is a literature review. This chapter reviews the research achievements of "earnings management" and "the relationship between property rights and earnings management", and the three aspects of "financial crisis and earnings management, property rights relationship".
The third chapter is theoretical analysis. This chapter discusses and analyses the three concepts and relations between "earnings management", "property property" and "financial crisis", which are involved in this study. First, the related theoretical problems of earnings management are introduced from the concept, the theoretical basis and the three aspects of the two earnings management selection order. Secondly, the paper divides the property property of our country from the ultimate property right theory, and sums up the characteristics of the stock rights of the listed companies, and then combs the existing research theory about the relevance of the property property and the earnings management; finally, the influence of the financial crisis on the listed companies in our country is given. The point is defined.
The fourth chapter, the research design and the hypothesis. This chapter mainly introduces the design part of the empirical research, including the analysis idea, the research problem and the hypothesis, the selection of the sample and the source of the data, the construction of the measurement model and the definition of the variables.
The fifth chapter, empirical study. This chapter respectively carries out the mean test, the grouping difference test, the multivariate regression analysis, the robustness test. Finally, according to the empirical results, the changes of the two kinds of earnings management level before and after the financial crisis of different property rights companies are analyzed.
The sixth chapter, the conclusion and the policy opinion, combined with the qualitative theoretical analysis and quantitative empirical research, this chapter summarizes the conclusions, and hopes to provide some useful construction for policy makers and regulators in improving the quality of earnings reports of listed companies, protecting investors and improving the domestic capital market. Argumentative.
The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:
(1) first, it is consistent with the results of Zhang Junrui and Jeky (2009), which confirms that the management of listed companies with earnings, financing and growth motivation generally exists in the behavior of accrued earnings management and real earnings management, which shows that real earnings management behavior is common before and after the crisis.
(2) Secondly, we find that the outbreak of the financial crisis has suppressed the level of accrual earnings management, and the level of real earnings management has been enhanced. In the crisis environment, the "pecking order theory" proposed by Zang (2007) has been confirmed, that is, the decision time of the management level on the real earnings management is preceded by the accrual earnings management. Further research has also been found. Management has a preference for three common means of real earnings management. The means to manipulate the discretionary cost are generally used before and after the crisis. The production manipulation is less used before the crisis because of the high cost, and the level of manipulation after the crisis has been significantly improved.
(3) at last, the relationship between property rights and earnings management is studied under the financial crisis, and the conclusion is that under the normal environment, the real earnings management level of the state-owned Holdings Company is significantly higher than that of the non-state-owned Holdings Company, and the non state-owned Holdings Company accrued earnings management is significantly higher than the state-owned Holdings Company. The two earnings management levels are consistent with the property rights company. This conclusion accords with the derivation in the property right theory, and expands the research results of the property property and earnings management in the current theorists.
The theoretical contributions of this article are as follows:
On the basis of the research achievements of foreign countries, the research on the relationship between property rights and earnings management has been put in the background of the financial crisis, enriching the research on earnings management in China, which is beneficial to the development of related research and theory.
(1) at present, the research on the two kinds of earnings management is based on the hypothesis of the normal environment. The financial crisis has changed the operating environment of the company, and the behavior of management earnings management is different from the normal.
(2) most of the studies on the relationship between property rights and earnings management have been carried out from the perspective of "accrued earnings management". This paper puts "real earnings management" into the scope of investigation and considers the relationship between property rights and the two kinds of earnings management. In addition, the research done in this paper is beneficial to expand the relevant theories and obtain the conclusion to the government. The policy making has some inspirations.
The limitations of this paper are as follows:
The first sample data may not be accurate enough. The impact of the financial crisis is truly transmitted to our country in the four quarter of 2008, and it still has an impact on China's economy. This article selects 2008 to 2010 three years as a sample of the crisis, which may result in the result inaccurate and there is a certain deviation.
Secondly, there are still disputes in the design of the model. This paper selects the model of the revised Jones model and the Roychowdhury for the accrued earnings management and the real earnings management, but there are some doubts about the measurement mode of the real earnings management at the present time. At the same time, whether the foreign model will take the soil in China will be dissatisfied, and the value of the model is also worth the value of the model. A further study is needed.
【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F275;F276.6;F832.51

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