论主权财富基金对世界经济的影响

发布时间：2018-06-01 14:02

本文选题：主权财富基金 + 金融市场　；参考：《吉林大学》2012年博士论文

【摘要】：主权财富基金的历史虽然不长，但是其发展却极为迅速。随着全球主权财富基金规模的增大，其对世界经济的影响力也与日俱增——无论是对实体经济层面还是虚拟经济的金融层面，都已经产生了巨大影响。本文的研究就围绕着这些影响展开，主要从国际收支、金融市场、以及监管规则三个大方面进行分析。本文共分为七个部分。第一部分为导论。这部分介绍了选题背景和研究意义，对主权财富基金的概念、现状、兴起原因及过程、对世界经济的影响、主权财富基金的管理和监督、中国主权财富基金的现状等相关文献进行了梳理，并对相关文献进行了总结和评述。本部分还对本文的研究方法和结构安排进行了阐述，并指出本文研究的创新之处与不足。第二部分是对主权财富基金的概述，是全文的铺垫。回顾历史可以发现，自从上世纪50年代世界第一只主权财富基金成立以来，全球主权财富基金都处在持续成长的过程中。主权财富基金规模和数量增加既有主权财富基金母国外汇储备增加，追求投资效率等内因，也有包括全球经济失衡在内的外部因素。目前，世界上对主权财富基金有多种分类标准，主要以IMF分类方法较为有代表性。虽然主权财富基金的背后都或多或少地掺杂着政治因素，但组织形式普遍采用公司制。主权财富基金性质的不同决定了其投资形式也不尽相同，但风险问题是每个主权财富基金都面临的问题，主权财富基金面临的风险主要分为内部风险和外部风险。其中，内部风险指的是由于自身管理失误造成损失的风险；外部风险则主要来源于资产或商品的市场价格波动、东道国的国家政治风险等。各国十分重视对主权财富基金的监管，这些监管既有利于主权财富基金的发展，也在一定程度上对其发展构成了障碍。第三部分从国际资本流动和国际资产价格两方面研究了主权财富基金对国际金融市场的影响。在美国次贷危机引发的全球金融危机爆发前，世界主权财富基金的投资区域主要以OECD国家为主。在危机之后，部分资金开始流向新兴市场国家。所以，主权财富基金的投资地域是随着国际经济环境和投资风险及收益的变化而变化的。但同时也应该注意，主权财富基金较私人机构基金更加注重投资的长期性。从主权财富投资的产业来看，呈现出多元化的趋势，但目前仍以金融业和房地产业为主，其次则是工业、能源、消费品和医疗产业。如果主权财富基金的透明度达到了接受国的要求，那么主权财富基金还会对两国所在的地区产生积极影响。在资产类别的配置上，主权财富基金主要考虑到的是资产的安全性和流动性，投资趋向多元化和长期化，这点在次贷危机后表现的更加明显。主权财富基金通过对现金资产的增持，对固定收益资产进行减持来提高资产的流动性。主权财富基金会对国际金融市场的资本流动产生影响，但效果仍有限。通过综合前期学者们的研究，本文认为主权财富基金对国际金融市场具有一定的影响，但是该影响仍然有限，不会造成金融资产价格大范围的波动。第四部分从主权财富基金对国际收支失衡的加剧、维系和调整三个方面阐述了主权财富基金对国际收支失衡的影响。国际收支失衡是主权财富基金产生的重要原因，资源类商品价格的上涨和新兴市场国家外汇储备的增加为主权财富基金的壮大提供了资金支持。但反过来，主权财富基金也成为了维系现阶段国际收支失衡的重要支撑力量，原因在于主权财富基金所形成的资金回流在一定程度上弥补了贸易逆差国家对外贸易赤字所产生的资金流出，为下一期的贸易逆差提供了支持。不过，与此同时主权财富基金能够通过促进国际储备货币结构的改善等途径迫使发达国家为改善国际收支做出努力。第五部分从各国对主权财富基金的准入态度入手，考察了针对主权财富基金而设立的国际监管准则从形成到实施的情况，分析了当前的国际监管准则在规范主权财富基金投资行为方面的局限性及其成因，并对主权财富基金国际监管准则的未来发展趋势进行了预测。目前，投资接受国对主权财富基金的态度仍然以抵制为主，这主要是从国家的经济安全、本国企业竞争力等因素考虑。由于在危机时期市场缺乏流动性，强硬态度会暂时缓和。源于国际社会对主权财富基金的担忧，便促成了《圣地亚哥原则》和《OECD关于主权财富基金及接受国方针宣言》等国际监管准则以及透明度衡量标准的出台。但是，国际监管准则并不具有强制性，所以其对主权财富基金的行为约束力较低。本文认为，对主权财富基金的国际治理，仅仅依靠国际监管准则是不现实的，还需要一整套比较有效的国际协调机制——这方面还有待研究。第六部分对主权财富基金的未来进行了展望，并在此基础上将关注的重点放在中国的主权财富基金。从未来短期看，全球的主权财富基金还面临着一系列不确定性，这主要是由于美国次贷危机引发的全球经济危机使未来世界经济形势扑朔迷离。此外，，欧洲债务危机也是使世界经济的未来充满极大不确定性的重要原因。所以在短期世界经济形势不明朗的背景下，主权财富基金仍然面临着较大的风险。但是从长期来看，全世界主权财富基金的发展势头仍将向好，规模将继续扩大，所以短期的经济震动对主权财富基金来说既是挑战，也是机遇。近年来，中国建立的主权财富基金规模迅速增长。虽然目前尚存在诸多不足，但从整体上看，投资水平仍在不断提升。随着中国经济在世界经济中的地位不断增强，中国主权财富基金规模不断增大，以及中国目前所持的巨额外汇储备等因素，中国的主权财富基金在国际上也发挥着越来越大的影响力。第七部分为结论和启示。对全文内容进行了总结。同时本文也得到了一些启示。随着主权财富基金在世界经济中的影响力不断增大，中国主权财富基金的影响也将增加——尤其在中国主权财富基金规模和质量都有所提高的条件下。由于主权财富基金的特殊性质，各东道国必然会对主权财富基金进行特殊监管。中国的主权财富基金也将不例外地受到“照顾”。中国主权财富基金应当在不暴露投资意图的前提下，积极提高自身透明度，与东道国进行有效沟通，并主动适应国际规则。主权财富基金的自身性质表明，采用公司治理模式和更加市场化的运作是主权财富基金的发展模式。而中国主权财富基金在相关方面仍有较大的提升空间。中国主权财富基金对世界经济的影响应该是多方面、全方位的。随着中国主权财富基金的发展，投资产品的种类和地域也开始趋于分散。中国主权财富基金对非金融类资产投资比重的增加，实际上也是中国主权财富基金扩大影响力的过程。这一过程不仅对世界经济产生影响，同时也将提升中国的影响力，对中国的经济利益和经济安全大有裨益。
[Abstract]:Although the history of sovereign wealth funds is not long, its development is very rapid. With the increase of the scale of global sovereign wealth fund, its influence on the world economy is increasing day by day - both on the level of the real economy and in the financial level of the virtual economy. The launch is mainly analyzed from three aspects: balance of payments, financial market and regulatory rules. This article is divided into seven parts.
The first part is introduction. This part introduces the background and significance of the topic, the concept, the status quo, the cause and process of the sovereign wealth fund, the influence on the world economy, the management and supervision of the sovereign wealth fund, the status of China's sovereign wealth fund and other related literature, and summarize and comment on the related literature. This part also expounds the research methods and structural arrangements of this paper, and points out the innovations and deficiencies of this research.
The second part is a summary of the sovereign wealth fund, which is the paving of the full text. A review of the history of the world's sovereign wealth fund has been in the process of sustained growth since the founding of the first sovereign wealth fund in the 50s of the last century. The scale and number of sovereign wealth funds have increased with the foreign exchange reserves of sovereign wealth funds. Increasing, internal factors such as the pursuit of investment efficiency and external factors including global economic imbalances. Currently, there are a variety of classification standards for sovereign wealth funds in the world, mainly by the IMF classification method. Although the sovereign wealth fund is more or less adulterated with political factors behind the sovereign wealth fund, the organizational form is generally adopted by the company system. The nature of sovereign wealth funds determines that the form of investment is different, but the risk is the problem that every sovereign wealth fund faces. The risk of sovereign wealth funds is mainly divided into internal and external risks. Among them, internal risk refers to the risk of loss due to its own management errors; external risk is the same. It is mainly derived from the market price fluctuation of assets or commodities, the national political risk of the host country, and so on. Countries attach great importance to the supervision of sovereign wealth funds, which are not only conducive to the development of sovereign wealth funds, but also to some extent the obstacles to their development.
The third part studies the influence of the sovereign wealth fund on the international financial market from the two aspects of international capital flow and international asset price. Before the outbreak of the global financial crisis caused by the American subprime crisis, the investment regions of the world sovereign wealth fund are mainly OECD countries. After the crisis, some of the funds began to flow to the emerging market countries. Therefore, the investment region of sovereign wealth funds varies with the international economic environment and the change of investment risk and income. But at the same time, it should be noted that the sovereign wealth fund pays more attention to the long-term investment than the private institution fund. The industry, the real estate industry, and the second are industry, energy, consumer goods and medical industry. If the transparency of sovereign wealth funds has reached the demand of the recipient country, the sovereign wealth fund will have a positive impact on the region where the two countries are located. In the configuration of the asset class, the main power wealth fund is mainly considered the security of the assets. And liquidity, investment trend diversification and long-term, this is more obvious after the subprime crisis, the sovereign wealth fund through the increase of cash assets, to reduce the fixed income assets to improve the liquidity of assets. The sovereign wealth fund will affect the capital flow of the international financial market, but the effect is still limited. In the study of the previous scholars, this paper believes that the sovereign wealth fund has a certain impact on the international financial market, but the impact is still limited and will not cause a wide range of fluctuations in the price of financial assets.
The fourth part expounds the influence of sovereign wealth funds on balance of payments imbalance from three aspects: the intensification of the balance of balance of payments, maintenance and adjustment of sovereign wealth funds. The balance of balance of payments is an important reason for the creation of sovereign wealth funds. The rise of the price of resources and the increase of foreign exchange reserves in emerging markets is the sovereign wealth. The expansion of the fund has provided financial support, but in turn, the sovereign wealth fund has also become an important support for the maintenance of the current balance of payments. The reason is that the return of funds formed by the sovereign wealth fund to some extent makes up for the outflow of funds produced by the foreign trade deficit countries, for the next phase of trade. The deficit provides support. But, at the same time, sovereign wealth funds can force developed countries to make efforts to improve the balance of payments by promoting the improvement of the International Reserve monetary structure.
The fifth part, starting with the admittance attitude of countries to sovereign wealth funds, examines the situation of international regulatory norms set up against sovereign wealth funds from formation to implementation, and analyzes the limitations and causes of the current international regulatory norms in regulating the investment behavior of sovereign wealth funds, and the international supervision of sovereign wealth funds. The future trend of the guidelines is predicted. At present, the attitude of the recipient countries to the sovereign wealth fund is still dominated by resistance, mainly from the economic security of the country and the competitiveness of the domestic enterprises. Because of the lack of liquidity in the crisis market, the hardline attitude will temporarily ease. The international community is based on the sovereign wealth base. The concerns of Kim contributed to the introduction of the Santiago principles and The sixth part looks forward to the future of the sovereign wealth fund, and puts the focus on China's sovereign wealth fund on this basis. In the short term, the global sovereign wealth fund faces a series of uncertainties, mainly due to the global economic crisis caused by the United States subprime crisis, which makes the future world economic situation. In addition, the European debt crisis is also an important reason for the future of the world economy. Therefore, under the background of the short term world economic situation, the sovereign wealth fund still faces great risks. But in the long run, the momentum of the world sovereign wealth fund will continue to be better and the scale will be on the scale. Continuing to expand, the short-term economic shock is both a challenge and an opportunity for sovereign wealth funds. In recent years, the scale of China's sovereign wealth funds has grown rapidly. Although there are still many shortcomings, the level of investment is still rising as a whole. With the growing position of the Chinese economy in the world economy, China's sovereign wealth funds are also playing an increasingly important role in the world as the scale of China's sovereign wealth funds is increasing, as well as the large amount of foreign exchange reserves held in China.
The seventh part is the conclusion and inspiration. This paper summarizes the content of the full text. At the same time, this article also has some enlightenment. With the increasing influence of sovereign wealth fund in the world economy, the influence of China's sovereign wealth fund will also increase, especially under the conditions of China's sovereign wealth fund regulation and quality. The special nature of sovereign wealth funds, each host country will inevitably supervise the sovereign wealth fund. China's sovereign wealth fund will also be taken care of. China's sovereign wealth fund should actively improve its transparency with the host country without exposing the investment intention, and actively communicate with the host country, and take the initiative to adapt it to the host country. According to the international rules, the nature of the sovereign wealth fund shows that the mode of corporate governance and the more marketable operation are the development models of the sovereign wealth fund. With the development of China's sovereign wealth funds, the types and regions of the investment products have also begun to disperse. The increase in the proportion of Chinese sovereign wealth funds to non-financial assets is actually the process of expanding the influence of China's sovereign wealth fund. This process not only affects the world economy, but also increases the impact of China. Force is of great benefit to China's economic interests and economic security.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F831.5;F113

【参考文献】