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经济社会学视角中的地方政府债务风险问题

发布时间:2018-06-14 17:06

  本文选题:地方政府 + 债务风险 ; 参考:《复旦大学》2012年博士论文


【摘要】:20世纪80年代,拉美的债务危机以后,政府债务问题开始引起世界关注。而20世纪90年代末期东南亚金融危机爆发后,政府债务危机再次吸引了世界的目光。而本轮始于2009年11月的迪拜主权债务危机的欧洲和美国主权债务危机更是引发了世界各国的高度关注。 在中国,由于地方政府利用其控制的融资平台不规范地对外大肆举债,最终给地方政府造成了巨额的债务规模,由于该债务规模大大超过了地方政府的财力,从而使地方政府面临着巨大的债务风险。由于这种风险可能引起中国政治、经济与社会的灾难,所以,中国中央政府和社会各界高度关注,地方政府债务风险成为中国亟待解决的重大问题。 综上所述,政府债务风险这个重大的经济社会问题已成为包括中国在内的世界各国的关注焦点。对地方政府债务风险问题加以研究,对中国学者而言更是有着重大的现实意义,事实上近两年为数众多的专家学者对这个问题进行了广泛的研究,并形成了一些研究结论,然而本人认为,这些研究结论没有能够循着地方政府债务这个具有涉及政治、经济、法律、社会、文化等社会各个系统特点的问题进行系统全面的研究,因而也没有能够揭示地方政府债务风险产生的根本原因,从而亟待深入。 本文基于经济社会学的视角,也即将地方政府债务嵌入到社会大系统中去,同时考虑政治制度、法律、社会、文化等社会构成要素对它的影响,对地方政府债务风险问题进行了研究。 本文的分析思路是这样安排的:首先提出问题,通过对研究背景的介绍和分析提出了本文的论题——中国地方政府债务风险问题,同时通过对地方政府债务风险跨领域、跨学科特征的分析提出了经济社会学的分析思路;然后正式开始问题的分析,文章采用经济社会学的视角分别从风险的识别、现状、形成原因及演进机制等各个层面对地方政府债务风险问题进行了分析;最后分技术和制度两个层面,也即治标和治本两个角度,提出了关于中国地方政府债务风险的治理对策。 根据这样的分析思路,我们把全文分为七章,各章主要内容如下: 第一章为导论部分,主要是提出问题,说明研究目标、研究意义、研究方法及论文结构,同时为确定研究范围还对有关概念进行了界定。 第二章主要对本文选题的相关研究文献进行了回顾和评述,同时对本文所需采用的经济社会学的相关理论进行了分析和介绍,然后在此基础上,提出了本文的地方政府债务风险相关问题的经济社会学研究方法。 第三章主要运用经济社会学的相关理论和方法对地方政府债务风险的识别标准问题进行了研究。我们认为,地方政府债务风险识别的定性标准应该是:地方政府因无力履行其未来应当承担的债务偿还责任和义务,以至于引发对本地政治、经济、法律等制度变化、或者对本地经济发展、社会稳定乃至国家层面的政治、经济、法律等制度变化、经济发展以及社会稳定等构成强大消极压力的可能性,传统的定性标准实际上属于财政风险的范畴。考虑一个国家的政治、经济、法制、文化等复杂的制度性因素的影响,我们认为简单地采用政府债务风险判别的国际警戒线指标是不合适的,一个全球通用的确定的数量标准并不存在。我们需要在参考债务数据的基础上,综合考察各国或各地区具体的制度环境,并根据其相应的的制度或经济、社会敏感性标准对地方政府债务风险的存在与否进行判断。 第四章对地方政府债务风险的现状进行了分析。本部分在研究国内各方面调查研究成果和笔者深度访谈的基础上,采用国际权威的债务风险矩阵工具,对我国地方政府债务总体规模进行了估算,估算的结果是我国的地方政府债务规模至少达到158813.89亿元。接着我们根据我们建立的债务风险识别标准,对地方政府债务风险的现状进行了具体分析,我们发现如此巨额的债务规模确实对中国地方政府构成了巨大的风险,因为它对中国的经济发展、金融稳定,社会稳定、社会信任及政府形象确实可能产生危害,同时它还将可能倒逼中国相关财政经济制度或法律的改变,这符合在第三章中我们构建的地方政府债务风险的识别标准。 第五章对地方政府债务风险的成因及演进机制进行了经济社会学视角的分析。分析发现:日益发展的市场经济以及由市场经济造成的以自我意识和利己思想为特征的社会结构,与中国的自建国以来没有什么显著变化的根本政治经济制度及其要求的正式的社会规则产生矛盾,这种矛盾同时造成大量可供政府官员寻租的体制环境(比如说政府的强势地位、民间经济活跃且弱势、法制建设不完善、国民弱势等);新的以利己意识为特征的社会意识形态作用下形成的非正式规则逐渐取代党和政府要求的正式规则而对人们包括对地方官员的行为选择起主导作用,结果导致中央政府对地方政府的控制力日益削弱,并且对地方政府的各种行为,包括举债行为,面临着日益严重的信息不对称和逐渐无能为力的局面;人民缺乏对政府行为的有效监督机制和权力。于是根本性的制度性不一致以及由这个不一致造成的中央政府作为委托人地位的削弱,加上人民缺乏对政府官员有效监督权力,三者共同作用造成了地方政府债务风险的产生。 第五章还从制度嵌入的委托代理的角度对上述结论进行了理论论证,同时还通过案例分析的方法对它们进行了实证检验。 关于地方政府债务风险的演进,第五章认为,地方政府债务风险的演进是中央政府和地方政府基于各自利益相互博弈的结果。在中国的根本性制度环境没有得到解决之前,地方政府债务风险仍然会以各种不同的形式演进、发展。但是由于政府可能采取的各种技术性对策会在一定阶段对债务风险起到一定的遏制或缓和作用,所以地方政府债务风险的演进、发展可能会是一种波浪式的模式。 第六章在地方政府债务风险产生原因和演进机制分析的基础上,提出了地方政府债务风险治理的技术性对策和制度性对策,其中技术性对策是指即使在现有制度条件下也可以发生作用的对策;而制度性对策则是一种根治地方政府债务风险的思考。制度性对策的实施通常是一个长期性的渐进的过程。 第七章在总结了全文的主要观点的同时,重点指出了本文创新点以及存在的不足,并对有待深入的研究领域进行了一个展望。
[Abstract]:After Latin America ' s debt crisis in the 1980s and Latin America , the government ' s debt crisis began to attract the attention of the world . And after the Southeast Asian financial crisis broke out in the late 1990s , the government ' s debt crisis once again attracted the world ' s attention . The crisis in Europe and the United States , which began in Dubai ' s sovereign debt crisis in November 2009 , has raised the world ' s attention .

In China , the local government has caused huge debt to the local government because the local government uses its controlled financing platform to raise its debts without regulating the external debt . As the scale of the debt greatly exceeds the financial resources of the local government , the local government faces a huge debt risk . As such risks may cause the political , economic and social disasters in China , the central government and the community of China are highly concerned , and the risk of local government debt becomes a major problem that China needs to solve urgently .

To sum up , the major economic and social problems of government debt risk have become the focus of attention of all countries , including China . In fact , the study of local government debt risk is of great practical significance . In fact , many experts and scholars have conducted extensive research on this problem in recent two years , and have formed some research conclusions . However , I believe that these conclusions are not able to reveal the root cause of local government debt risk , and thus need to be deepened .

On the basis of the angle of economic sociology , we also put the local government debt into the system of society , taking into account the influence of political system , law , society , culture and other social factors on it , and studied the problem of local government debt risk .

In this paper , the author put forward the problem , and put forward the subject of this paper by introducing and analyzing the background of the research . The paper puts forward the analysis thought of economic sociology through the analysis of the cross - disciplinary characteristics of local government debt risk .
Then formally begin the analysis of the problem , the paper uses the angle of economic sociology to analyze the risk of local government debt from the risk identification , the present situation , the formation reason and the evolution mechanism , etc .
At last , two aspects of technology and system , namely , the two aspects of governance and governance , put forward the countermeasures of governance of local government debt risk in China .

According to this analysis , we divide the whole text into seven chapters , the main contents of each chapter are as follows :

The first chapter is the introduction part , mainly raises the question , explains the research goal , the research significance , the research method and the paper structure , and also defines the relevant concepts for the purpose of determining the scope of the study .

In the second chapter , the author reviews and comments on the relevant research literature in this paper . At the same time , the relevant theories of economic sociology adopted in this paper are analyzed and introduced . Then , the economic sociology research method of local government debt risk related problems is put forward .

The third chapter mainly applies the relevant theories and methods of economic sociology to study the recognition standard of local government debt risk . We believe that the qualitative criterion of local government debt risk identification should be : the local government can not carry out the system changes such as local politics , economy , law , etc .

In chapter 4 , the present situation of local government debt risk is analyzed . Based on the study of domestic research achievements and the author ' s deep interview , this part estimates the overall scale of local government debt by using the international authoritative debt risk matrix tool . We find that such a huge debt scale does harm to China ' s local government . We find that such a huge debt scale does harm to Chinese local government , and it will also push China ' s relevant financial and economic system or law to change , which is in line with the recognition standard of the local government debt risk in chapter 3 .

The fifth chapter analyzes the causes and evolution mechanism of local government debt risk from the angle of economic sociology . It is found that the increasingly developing market economy and the social structure characterized by self - consciousness and egoism caused by market economy are inconsistent with China ' s fundamental political and economic system which has not changed significantly since the founding of the Republic of China .
The informal rules formed by the new social ideology characterized by egoism gradually replace the formal rules required by the Party and the government . The result has led to the weakening of the central government ' s control over the local government , and the various acts of the local government , including the debt - raising behavior , and the increasingly serious information asymmetry and the gradual inability to do so ;
The lack of effective supervision mechanism and power for the government ' s actions . The fundamental institutional inconsistency and the weakening of the central government as the client ' s status caused by this inconsistency , together with the lack of effective supervision of the power of the government officials , have caused the local government debt risk .

The fifth chapter also proves the above conclusion from the perspective of the principal agent embedded in the system , and also makes an empirical test on them through case analysis .

With regard to the evolution of local government debt risk , the fifth chapter believes that the evolution of the local government debt risk is the result of the mutual game between the central government and the local government . Until the fundamental institutional environment in China has not been resolved , the local government debt risk will evolve and develop in a variety of different forms . However , the development of the local government debt risk may be a wave mode because the government may take various technical countermeasures to restrain or mitigate the debt risk in a certain stage .

In the sixth chapter , on the basis of the analysis of the causes and the evolution mechanism of the local government ' s debt risk , the paper puts forward the technical countermeasures and the institutional countermeasures of the local government debt risk management , in which the technical countermeasures refer to the countermeasures which can also occur even under the existing system conditions ;
The institutional response is a reflection of local government debt risk . The implementation of institutional countermeasure is usually a long - term gradual process .

Chapter 7 summarizes the main viewpoints of the text , points out the innovation points in this paper as well as the deficiency existing in this paper , and makes a prospect in the field of research to be in - depth .
【学位授予单位】:复旦大学
【学位级别】:博士
【学位授予年份】:2012
【分类号】:F812.5

【引证文献】

相关期刊论文 前4条

1 马改艳;;我国地方债务风险隐患、成因及化解对策[J];西部论坛;2014年02期

2 路文婷;;地方政府债务风险防范与治理探讨[J];合作经济与科技;2014年04期

3 李经纬;唐鑫;;地方政府债务风险演进机制分析——一个基于网络嵌入的博弈视角[J];社会科学家;2013年01期

4 李经纬;唐鑫;;中国地方政府债券发行制度设计思考——基于国际经验和新经济社会学视角[J];社会科学家;2014年06期

相关硕士学位论文 前1条

1 李阳子;Y县地方政府性债务风险分析[D];兰州商学院;2014年



本文编号:2018267

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