股票市场估值、管理层过度自信与并购绩效关系的实证研究

发布时间：2018-06-29 21:40

本文选题：股票市场估值水平 + 管理层过度自信　；参考：《中南大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：并购是公司资本配置的重要形式之一,也是实现资本要素流通和产业结构调整的重要手段。国内外的理论和实证研究表明证券市场环境和管理者自身的非理性行为会对公司的并购行为产生影响。本文在借鉴国内外学者相关研究成果的基础上,从探究我国资本市场估值和管理层行为对公司并购决策的影响入手,研究股票市场估值水平、管理层过度自信与并购绩效的关系。本文以沪深两市2001-2009年间446家上市公司发生的673起并购事件为研究样本,使用事件研究法和会计研究法来衡量短期市场反应和长期业绩表现,基于影响并购绩效的两大假说即股票市场驱动并购理论和管理者过度自信假说建立本文的研究假设,对股票市场估值、管理层过度自信及其二者交互作用与并购绩效的关系进行了实证检验,得到的具体结论如下：(1)股票市场估值是企业进行并购活动的重要驱动因素,与市场低估时期相比,市场高估时期发生更多的并购活动。股票市场估值水平与并购绩效显著相关,与市场低估时期相比,在市场高估时期发生的并购能获得更高的市场公告效应,但是在市场低估时期发生的并购能获得更高的长期绩效。(2)管理层过度自信与并购绩效呈显著负相关关系。独立董事比例与并购绩效呈正相关关系,独立董事比例越高,企业的并购绩效越好。(3)从股票市场估值和管理者过度自信的交互影响回归结果得出,在股票市场高估时期,理性管理者的并购方将获得更好的市场反应。在市场低估时期,非过度自信的并购方发生的并购,长期经营业绩更好。(4)股权分置改革是否实现对并购质量有积极的影响。内部现金流、净资产收益率(ROE)与并购绩效有显著的正相关关系。
[Abstract]:M & A is one of the important forms of corporate capital allocation, and it is also an important means to realize the circulation of capital elements and the adjustment of industrial structure. Theoretical and empirical studies at home and abroad show that the securities market environment and the irrational behavior of managers themselves will have an impact on mergers and acquisitions. Based on the research results of domestic and foreign scholars, this paper studies the valuation level of stock market from the perspective of capital market valuation and the influence of management behavior on corporate M & A decision. The relationship between management overconfidence and M & A performance. Based on 673 M & A events of 446 listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets from 2001 to 2009, this paper uses event research method and accounting research method to measure short-term market reaction and long-term performance. Based on the two hypotheses that affect the performance of M & A, the stock market driven M & A theory and the manager overconfidence hypothesis, the research hypotheses of this paper are established to evaluate the stock market. The relationship between management overconfidence and its interaction with M & A performance is empirically tested. The specific conclusions are as follows: (1) Stock market valuation is an important driving factor for M & A activities, compared with the period of market undervaluation. There is more M & A activity in the period of market overvaluation. The valuation level of stock market is significantly related to the performance of M & A. Compared with the period of market undervaluation, mergers and acquisitions in the period of market overvaluation can obtain higher market announcement effect. However, M & A in the period of market undervaluation can achieve higher long-term performance. (2) Management overconfidence has a significant negative correlation with M & A performance. The proportion of independent directors is positively correlated with M & A performance, and the higher the proportion of independent directors is, the better the M & A performance of enterprises is. (3) from the regression results of the interaction between stock market valuation and overconfidence of managers, we can conclude that in the period of overvaluation of stock market, Rational managers of mergers and acquisitions will get a better market response. In the period of market undervaluation, the long-term performance of M & A is better than that of non-overconfident M & A. (4) the realization of the split share structure reform has a positive effect on the quality of M & A. There is a significant positive correlation between internal cash flow, ROE and M & A performance.
【学位授予单位】：中南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F224;F832.51;F271

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