货币流动性对黄金价格影响的分析

发布时间：2018-07-04 14:29

本文选题：黄金价格 + 货币流动性　；参考：《华东交通大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：自2007年的次贷危机以来，全球经济就陷入了一场百年不遇的金融危机，在这场危机中，不论是金融市场还是实体经济都受到了严重的创伤。人们感受最深的是货币流动性收缩，资金运转困难。随着危机的层层加深，全球的货币流动性急剧减弱，投资者出现了资金短缺，购买力下降的状况，各类资产需求随之减少，资产价格大幅度下跌。但是为了尽量减少在危机中的损失，人们纷纷将目光投向了具有保值避险功能的黄金。在金融市场一片萧条的同时，黄金市场却出现异常的火爆，黄金需求推动着黄金价格的一路上涨，然而就在投资者对黄金市场充满了无限憧憬的时候，创出新高的黄金价格却出现了拐点，一路持续震荡下跌，，此刻的黄金失去了昨日的光辉，投资者变的手足无策。然而在美联储实施宽松货币政策之后，黄金市场又起死回生再次成为人们关注的热点。货币流动性的大起大落与黄金价格的巨幅波动引起了全球金融界的热议。本文主要是在借鉴国内外专家学者对于货币流动性对资产价格的影响分析以及黄金价格影响因素分析的基础上，围绕“货币流动性对黄金价格的影响”的论题，结合了近十几年来黄金价格的走势，阐述了货币流动性的内涵及其度量方法，分析了影响黄金价格的长期、中期以及短期因素，采用了波动性指标提取方法、协整方法、向量自回归模型以及误差修正模型等实证分析方法深入地研究了货币流动性和黄金价格之间的相关关系，通过方差分解进一步分析了模型中各影响因素的贡献率，最后使用GARCH模型预测黄金价格未来的走势。通过结合理论分析与实证分析，发现货币流动性是最重要的黄金价格短期影响因素，美元指数对黄金价格的影响也尤为重要。根据已有的信息预测了在接下来的两个季度黄金价格的走势，并为投资者在当前的经济形势下有效的使用黄金作为保值避险抗通货膨胀的工具，控制投资风险，更合理的投资黄金市场提供了具有针对性的建议。
[Abstract]:Since the subprime mortgage crisis in 2007, the global economy has been plunged into a financial crisis, in which both the financial markets and the real economy have been seriously traumatized. What is most felt is the contraction of monetary liquidity and the difficulty of running funds. With the deepening of the crisis, global monetary liquidity has weakened sharply, investors have faced a shortage of capital, reduced purchasing power, reduced demand for all types of assets, asset prices have fallen sharply. But in order to minimize the loss in the crisis, people have turned their eyes to gold with the function of hedging and avoiding risks. While the financial market is in a depression, the gold market is booming. Gold demand is driving the gold price up all the way, but at a time when investors are full of boundless hopes for the gold market, The gold price, which has reached a new high, has turned into an inflection point and has continued to fluctuate. The gold has lost its glory yesterday, and investors have become helpless. However, after the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy, the gold market came back to life and became the focus of attention again. The volatility of monetary liquidity and the huge volatility of gold prices have aroused heated debate in the global financial world. Based on the analysis of the influence of monetary liquidity on asset price and the factors influencing gold price, this paper focuses on the topic of "the influence of Monetary liquidity on Gold Price". Combined with the trend of gold price in recent ten years, this paper expounds the connotation of monetary liquidity and its measurement method, analyzes the factors affecting gold price in the long, medium and short term, and adopts the method of extracting volatility index and cointegration. The empirical analysis methods such as vector autoregressive model and error correction model deeply study the correlation between monetary liquidity and gold price, and further analyze the contribution rate of various factors in the model through variance decomposition. Finally, GARCH model is used to predict the future trend of gold price. Through theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, it is found that monetary liquidity is the most important short-term influence factor of gold price, and the influence of dollar index on gold price is particularly important. According to the available information, it predicts the trend of gold prices in the next two quarters, and effectively uses gold as a hedge against inflation and controls investment risks for investors in the current economic situation. More rational investment in the gold market provides targeted advice.
【学位授予单位】：华东交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F224;F721;F831.54

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