我国创业板制造行业财务风险实证研究

发布时间：2018-07-07 23:02

本文选题：创业板 + 主成分分析　；参考：《北京工业大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：创业板在我国是一个新兴的投资板块，主要服务于高科技、高成长的中小企业，投资门槛低，市场风险大于主板。由于运行时间不长，国内对创业板上市企业财务风险研究的程度和深度还不够，投资者对于创业板风险认识普遍不足，盲目投资现象较为严重。随着创业板市场快速发展，市场上不确定因素的增多，创业板财务问题愈加突出。目前，创业板上市公司已经出现业绩下滑，成长性低于预期等问题。在此背景下，本文对创业板中最大的行业制造行业进行了财务危机预警研究。本文在对国内外财务危机预警主要理论进行梳理后确定主成分分析法作为主要的研究方法，在对创业板制造行业现状进行分析后，对制造行业结构、规模大小分布进行了统计描述，，根据行业配对和规模基本对等的原则从A股市场上选择样本，利用SPSS统计软件对指标变量进行了主成分分析，确定了指标体系，并进一步建立了预警模型。之后利用模型对创业板制造行业102家上市公司进行分析，将102家企业分成三类，并借用交通信号进行标识：有30家企业财务状况良好，运行在财务绿灯区，1年后无财务风险；有46家企业财务状况不好，运行在财务红灯区，1年后可能会出现财务危机风险；有26家企业运行在财务黄灯区，企业财务状况需要给予关注。最后结合主成分统计描述，分析了创业板财务风险产生的原因。通过本文对创业板制造行业财务风险的研究，可以使投资者更加全面的了解创业板制造行业风险状况，避免投资损失，因此研究具有重要的应用价值，而创业板作为一个新的投资领域，对创业板制造行业财务危机预警研究也具有极高的学术价值。同时制造业作为创业板板块中规模最大的行业，对整个创业板的财务风险问题研究也具有很大的借鉴意义。
[Abstract]:Growth Enterprise Market (gem) is a new investment plate in our country, which mainly serves the high-tech and high growing small and medium-sized enterprises. The investment threshold is low and the market risk is higher than the main board. As the running time is not long, the degree and depth of financial risk research on gem listed enterprises in China is not enough, investors generally lack understanding of gem risk, blind investment phenomenon is more serious. With the rapid development of the gem market and the increase of uncertain factors in the market, the financial problems of the gem are becoming more and more prominent. At present, gem listed companies have seen a decline in performance, growth is lower than expected and other issues. Under this background, this paper carries on the financial crisis early warning research to the biggest industry manufacturing industry in the gem. After combing the main theories of financial crisis warning at home and abroad, this paper determines the principal component analysis method as the main research method, after analyzing the current situation of the gem manufacturing industry, the structure of the manufacturing industry. The size distribution is statistically described. According to the principle of industry pairing and basic equivalence of scale, samples are selected from A-share market. The principal component analysis of index variables is carried out by using SPSS statistical software, and the index system is determined. Furthermore, the early warning model is established. Then the model is used to analyze 102 listed companies in the gem manufacturing industry. 102 enterprises are classified into three categories, and the traffic signals are used to mark them: 30 enterprises are in good financial condition, running in the financial green zone, and no financial risk after one year; There are 46 enterprises in poor financial situation, running in the financial red-light zone, may occur in a year later financial crisis risk; 26 enterprises operating in the financial yellow light area, the financial situation of enterprises need to pay attention to. Finally, the paper analyzes the causes of financial risk of gem based on principal component statistical description. Through the research on the financial risk of the gem manufacturing industry, investors can get a better understanding of the risk situation of the gem manufacturing industry and avoid investment losses, so the research has important application value. As a new investment field, the gem has a high academic value to the early warning of financial crisis in the gem manufacturing industry. At the same time, as the largest industry in the gem, the manufacturing industry has great reference significance to the financial risk research of the whole gem.
【学位授予单位】：北京工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F275;F832.51;F224

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