我国地方政府债务风险防范及预警研究

发布时间：2018-07-10 19:13

本文选题：地方政府 + 债务风险　；参考：《新疆财经大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：改革开放这三十多年来，我国的国民经济和基础设施建设都得到了快速发展，经济增长和社会进步必须有资金的投入作为保障，但现如今，各级地方政府的财政资源相对匮乏，政府预算很难提供充足的资金用于经济建设。因此，工业化与城镇化的最终结果必将导致地方建设性融资需求增加。 1994年，我国实行分税制改革，中央与地方重新界定财事权责，形成了“钱在中央，事在地方”的不合理格局。为了保证基础设施建设项目顺利开展，，2003年，地方政府开始以土地出让收入作为担保通过融资平台公司筹集资金。到了2008年，我国为应对次贷危机，出台了4万亿投资计划，与之相匹配的财政激励机制，致使地方政府融资平台在随后的两年间积累了大量债务。由于《预算法》等法律明确规定，地方政府不得直接或间接通过举债方式融资，所以，为了绕开法律限制，巨大规模的债务就这样被隐藏起来了。虽然现阶段，我国已有四省市启动了发债试点，但距离地方政府债务信息彻底公开透明化尚需时日。2011年，我国开始实行稳健的经济政策抑制通货膨胀，政策的转向并没有使地方政府债务形势发生扭转，我国的地方债始终处于高位运行，由此带来的风险已经初露端倪。因此，管理控制地方政府债务风险，确保社会经济更好更快、健康稳定地可持续发展已经迫在眉睫。实践证实，建立预警体系是化解地方政府债务风险、避免债务危机爆发的重要环节。本文旨在总结国外地方政府债务管理经验教训的基础之上，通过分析我国地方债的现状和问题，构建模糊神经网络预警模型并验证其可行性，进而提出防范我国地方政府债务风险的对策建议。
[Abstract]:In the past 30 years or so since the reform and opening up, the national economy and infrastructure construction of our country have developed rapidly. Economic growth and social progress must be guaranteed by the investment of funds. But now, the financial resources of local governments at all levels are relatively scarce. It is difficult for the government budget to provide sufficient funds for economic construction. Therefore, the final result of industrialization and urbanization will inevitably lead to an increase in the local constructive financing demand. In 1994, China implemented the reform of the tax sharing system, and the central and local governments redefined the powers and responsibilities of financial affairs, forming "money in the central government." The unreasonable pattern of local affairs. In order to ensure the smooth development of infrastructure projects, in 2003, local governments began to raise funds through financing platform companies with land transfer income as a guarantee. In 2008, in order to deal with the subprime mortgage crisis, China issued a $4 trillion investment plan, which matched with the fiscal incentive mechanism, resulting in the local government financing platform accumulated a large amount of debt in the following two years. Because laws such as the Budget Law explicitly stipulate that local governments cannot borrow money directly or indirectly, huge amounts of debt are thus hidden in order to circumvent legal restrictions. Although at this stage, four provinces and cities in China have launched a pilot bond issue, it is still some time before local government debt information is completely open and transparent. In 2011, China began to implement a sound economic policy to curb inflation. The change of policy has not changed the situation of local government debt, and the local debt of our country is always in high position. Therefore, it is urgent to manage and control the local government debt risk, to ensure a better and faster social economy and a healthy and stable sustainable development. Practice has proved that the establishment of early warning system is an important link to resolve the debt risk of local government and avoid the outbreak of debt crisis. On the basis of summing up the experience and lessons of foreign local government debt management, this paper analyzes the present situation and problems of local debt in China, constructs a fuzzy neural network early warning model and verifies its feasibility. Then put forward the countermeasures and suggestions to prevent the local government debt risk.
【学位授予单位】：新疆财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F812.5

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