中国地方政府债券风险与防范机制研究

发布时间：2018-07-12 10:24

本文选题：地方政府债券 + 信用风险　；参考：《沈阳大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：我国1994年《预算法》第二十八条规定：“地方各级预算按照量入为出、收支平衡的原则编制，不列赤字。除法律和国务院另有规定外，地方政府不得发行地方政府债券”。2008年国际金融危机对我国经济造成严重冲击，中央政府推出4万亿元经济刺激计划。为了缓解地方政府在刺激计划中的资金瓶颈，从2009年开始中央政府代地方政府发行2000亿元地方政府债券。经过两三年的运作，地方政府已积累了一些债务管理的经验。从2011年开始，地方政府自行发债试点启动并取得了一定的成功，也得到了市场的普遍认可。此次试点工作的推出是地方债发行方式的重大变革。未来我国地方政府债券将经历“代理发债→自行发债→自主发债”的演变。从2009年至2012年，中央已连续四年批准地方政府债券，说明中央政府已不是把发行地方政府债券作为挽救经济危机的临时举措，而是致力于建设我国地方政府债券市场，增强地方政府融资能力。随着我国地方政府债券市场的不断发展与扩大，风险也随之而来。因为无论是国内外学者的理论研究，还是发达国家成熟的市场经验，都表明地方政府债券存在一系列的风险。本文在前人研究基础上，，在我国开启地方政府债券发行、并致力于建设地方政府债券市场的大背景下，从理论和实证两方面做了相关分析，对我国地方政府债券风险的度量和防范机制的构建进行研究，希望能为我国地方政府债券的发展提供理论支持。本文首先介绍美、日等发达国家在地方政府债券发行和风险防范方面的经验，并进行比较与评价。其次，本文对我国允许地方政府发行债券所面临的各类风险进行识别与分析。再次，本文以上海市和辽宁省为例，运用改进后的KMV模型对地方政府发行债券的信用风险进行度量，得到两个地区不同期限地方政府债券的安全发行规模与违约概率，并从各个角度进行比较分析。最后，根据全文研究得出结论，对我国建立地方政府债券风险防范机制提出具有可操作性的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Article 28 of China's 1994 Budget Law stipulates: "Local budgets at all levels shall be compiled according to the principle of keeping expenditure within the limits of income and expenditure, and shall not be included in the deficit." Unless otherwise stipulated by the law and the State Council, local governments are not allowed to issue local government bonds. "the 2008 international financial crisis has had a severe impact on China's economy, and the central government has launched a 4 trillion yuan economic stimulus plan. To ease local governments' funding bottlenecks in the stimulus package, the central government began issuing 200 billion yuan of local government bonds on behalf of local governments in 2009. After two or three years of operation, local governments have accumulated some experience in debt management. Since 2011, the local government has started its own bond issue pilot and achieved certain success, which has also been generally recognized by the market. The launch of the pilot work is a major change in the way local bonds are issued. In the future, China's local government bonds will go through the evolution of "agency bond issuance and self-issuance of bonds." From 2009 to 2012, the central government has approved local government bonds for four consecutive years, indicating that the central government has not taken the issue of local government bonds as a temporary measure to save the economic crisis, but has been working to build a local government bond market in our country. Strengthen the ability of local government to raise funds. With the continuous development and expansion of our local government bond market, the risk also follows. Both domestic and foreign scholars' theoretical research and mature market experience in developed countries indicate that local government bonds have a series of risks. On the basis of previous studies, this paper makes a related analysis from the theoretical and empirical aspects under the background of opening the local government bond issuance in China and devoting itself to the construction of the local government bond market. In order to provide theoretical support for the development of local government bonds, this paper studies the risk measurement and prevention mechanism of local government bonds in China. This paper first introduces the experiences of the developed countries, such as the United States and Japan, in the local government bond issuance and risk prevention, and makes a comparison and evaluation. Secondly, this paper identifies and analyzes all kinds of risks that local governments are allowed to issue bonds. Thirdly, taking Shanghai and Liaoning Province as examples, this paper uses the improved KMV model to measure the credit risk of local government bonds, and obtains the safe issuance scale and default probability of local government bonds with different maturity in two regions. And carries on the comparative analysis from each angle. Finally, according to the conclusion of the paper, the paper puts forward some feasible policy suggestions to establish the risk prevention mechanism of local government bonds.
【学位授予单位】：沈阳大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F812.5

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