我国地方政府或有负债的风险控制研究

发布时间：2018-07-12 10:44

本文选题：地方政府或有负债 + 财政风险　；参考：《首都经济贸易大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：近两年,中央逐步加强了对我国地方政府债务的管理,主要是加强防范财政风险中的债务风险。而在地方政府面临的所有债务中,隐匿性最强的是政府或有负债,作为承担公共风险的重要载体,政府或有负债的来源非常广泛,如果这类政府或有负债转为政府直接负债则将影响未来财政的支出活动,对财政的可持续性构成较大威胁。因此,加强政府或有负债的风险管理有助于降低潜在的财政风险。本文试图通过分析目前我国地方政府或有负债情况,探究其产生的原因及与财政风险的深层联系,并在此基础上提出对策建议防范隐匿的财政风险。首先,本文通过规范分析法,从理论上界定了政府或有负债与财政风险的关系；其次,通过实证分析法分析了目前我国地方政府或有负债的现状、特点及产生的原因。然后,从主观和客观两方面分析了目前我国地方政府或有负债的主要来源及风险积累的条件,并归纳出公共风险借助或有负债这一载体转化为财政风险的一般规律。最后,在前文分析的基础之上从四个方面提出了或有负债的风险控制对策。本文的突出特点在于重点分析了目前四类主要的地方政府或有负债情况,并提出以或有负债信息披露建设为基础,静态与动态分析相结合的方法来评估地方政府偿还或有负债的能力,以此评估潜在财政风险大小并控制增量地方政府或有负债的建议,最后设计了一套风险监测指标加强对主要或有负债领域的风险监管。
[Abstract]:In the past two years, the central government has gradually strengthened the management of local government debt, mainly by strengthening the prevention of financial risks. Among all the debts faced by local governments, the most concealed is the contingent liabilities of the government. As an important carrier of public risks, the sources of contingent liabilities of the government are very wide. If such contingent liabilities are converted into direct government liabilities, they will affect future fiscal spending activities and pose a greater threat to fiscal sustainability. Therefore, strengthening the risk management of government contingent liabilities helps to reduce potential financial risks. By analyzing the contingent liabilities of local governments in China, this paper attempts to explore the causes of their occurrence and their deep relationship with financial risks, and on this basis puts forward countermeasures and suggestions to guard against hidden financial risks. Firstly, this paper defines the relationship between government contingent liabilities and financial risks theoretically through normative analysis; secondly, it analyzes the present situation, characteristics and causes of contingent liabilities of local governments in China by empirical analysis. Then, this paper analyzes the main sources of contingent liabilities of local governments and the conditions of risk accumulation from subjective and objective aspects, and concludes the general law that public risks are transformed into financial risks by means of contingent liabilities. Finally, on the basis of the above analysis, the paper puts forward the risk control countermeasures of contingent liabilities from four aspects. The main features of this paper are the analysis of the current four main types of local governments' contingent liabilities, and the construction of contingent liabilities information disclosure. A combination of static and dynamic analysis to assess the ability of local governments to repay contingent liabilities, thereby assessing the potential financial risk and controlling incremental local government contingent liabilities. Finally, a set of risk monitoring indicators is designed to strengthen risk supervision in major contingent liability areas.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F812.5

【引证文献】