关于国有银行股权的定价问题探讨

发布时间：2018-07-12 19:18

本文选题：股权定价 + 国有银行　；参考：《上海交通大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来，中国国有商业银行通过重组和改革摆脱了长期以来不良资产率居高不下的困境，盈利能力大幅攀升，尤其是在08年全球金融危机中一枝独秀于全球金融业，而与此形成鲜明对比的却是国有银行萎靡不振的股价，还有以美国银行为代表的战略投资者纷纷套现离场。本文试图通过对国有银行的深入剖析，探讨关于国有银行的股权定价问题。研究的意义不仅在于能够在资本市场中为广大投资者提供投资决策的参考依据，而且如果抓住影响国有银行股权定价的主要因素，就能够加快其进一步深入进行市场化的运作，，为董事会下属战略规划委员会对于银行发展的总体战略规划提供指导。第一章绪论部分介绍了本文的研究背景和意义；第二章从资本充足率、资产质量、管理水平、盈利状况和流动性风险五个核心指标来评价分析国有商业银行的整体现状；第三章阐述了如何使用相对估值法和绝对估值法估算银行股权价值，相对估值法并不是像绝对估值法那样直接从公司股权价值的内在驱动因素出发进行价值评估，而是通过对比分析同类别的公司间接评估股权的价值，绝对价值分析和相对价值分析这两种方法各有优劣，在一般情况下，对银行业的估值以绝对估值方法为主，参考相对估值方法；第四章以中国建设银行为实证案例，采用绝对估值方法中的三阶段股利贴现模型定量估算了其股权的内在价值，国有银行目前处于高速增长期，而且分红政策稳定，各方面情况都与三阶段股利贴现模型的假设条件比较吻合；最后一章探讨了国有银行决策者引进外资的真实动机，建议政府和相关监管部门能够坚持深化对于国有银行的市场化改革，以促进我国国有商业银行在全球金融领域中的核心竞争能力不断提高。
[Abstract]:In recent years, through restructuring and reform, China's state-owned commercial banks have emerged from the long-standing dilemma of high non-performing assets and their profitability has risen sharply, especially in the 2008 global financial crisis, which dominated the global financial industry. In sharp contrast to this is the flagging stock prices of state-owned banks and the departure of strategic investors represented by Bank of America. This paper attempts to probe into the equity pricing of state-owned banks through the deep analysis of state-owned banks. The significance of the study is not only to provide the investors with reference basis for the investment decision in the capital market, but also to accelerate the further marketization of state-owned banks if they grasp the main factors that affect the pricing of stock rights of state-owned banks. Provide guidance to the strategic planning committee under the board of directors on the overall strategic planning for the development of the bank. The first chapter introduces the background and significance of the research, the second chapter evaluates and analyzes the overall situation of state-owned commercial banks from five core indicators: capital adequacy ratio, asset quality, management level, profitability and liquidity risk. The third chapter expounds how to use the relative valuation method and the absolute valuation method to estimate the equity value of the bank. The relative valuation method is not like the absolute valuation method to evaluate the value directly from the internal driving factors of the company's equity value. But through the comparative analysis of the value of equity indirectly assessed by the same kind of companies, the absolute value analysis and the relative value analysis have their own merits and demerits. In general, the valuation of the banking industry is based on the absolute valuation method. The fourth chapter takes the China Construction Bank as an empirical case, uses the three-stage dividend discount model of the absolute valuation method to quantitatively estimate the intrinsic value of its equity, and the state-owned banks are in the period of rapid growth. Moreover, the dividend policy is stable, and all aspects are consistent with the assumptions of the three-stage dividend discount model. The last chapter discusses the real motivation of the decision makers of state-owned banks to introduce foreign capital. It is suggested that the government and relevant regulatory departments should persist in deepening the market-oriented reform of state-owned banks in order to promote the core competitiveness of Chinese state-owned commercial banks in the global financial field.
【学位授予单位】：上海交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.3;F832.51;F224

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