我国上市公司现金股利政策与迎合理论之适用性研究

发布时间：2018-08-07 13:05

【摘要】：从1990年12月19日上海证券交易所成立至今，在短短的20年中我国的证券市场得到了巨大的发展。但是纵观我国证券市场发展的整个过程，可以发现一个现象：上市公司发放现金股利的比例普遍较低。国外的一些学者研究发现美国、英国、德国、日本等一些发达的证券市场也存在现金股利支付下降的现象，Fama(2001)称之为“不断消失的股利”现象。学者们尝试用各种经典股利理论来解释这一现象，但都没有给出完美的答案。Baker和Wurgler(2004)在行为金融学的基础之上提出了一个新的股利理论——迎合理论，并且他们通过实证发现，迎合理论对美国证券市场的股利政策具有很好的解释能力。由于我国的证券市场与美国的证券市场存在着很大差异，本文将研究迎合理论是否适用于我国的证券市场，是否对我国上市公司现金股利政策具有很好的解释能力。本文首先分析几种经典股利理论在我国证券市场运用时存在的不足，，并详细介绍了迎合理论的主要内容。然后分析了我国证券市场股利发放情况以及我国证券市场的特征，发现我国上市公司现金股利支付比例确实很低；我国证券市场存在股权分置、一股独大和中小股东保护薄弱的情况。显然，从整个证券市场角度来分析来迎合理论的适用性有失严谨，因此本文设计分两部分来实证检验迎合理论在我国的适用性：管理者在制定现金股利政策时是否迎合中小股东的需求；管理者在制定现金股利政策时是否迎合大股东的需求。在第一部分实证分析中本文参照Baker和Wurgler（2004b）中的方法并进行改进，用两阶段回归法进行分析，实证结果表明管理者在制定现金股利政策是迎合中小股东的现金股利需求；在第二部分实证中，本文根据我国证券市场的特征，采用因子分析和逐步分析的方法进行分析，结果表明管理者在制定现金股利政策时同样迎合大股东的现金股利需求，这表明迎合理论在我国这样的股权比较集中、中小股东保护不完善的证券市场具有适用性，对我国证券市场的现金股利政策具有很好的解释能力。最后，进行全文总结并指出本文研究的不足之处与下一步的研究展望。
[Abstract]:Since the establishment of Shanghai Stock Exchange on December 19, 1990, the stock market in China has been greatly developed in 20 years. But throughout the development of our securities market, we can find a phenomenon: the proportion of cash dividend issued by listed companies is generally low. Some foreign scholars have found that some developed stock markets such as the United States, Britain, Germany and Japan also have the phenomenon of declining cash dividend payment. Fama (2001) called it "disappearing dividend" phenomenon. Scholars tried to explain this phenomenon with various classical dividend theories, but none of them gave a perfect answer. Baker and Wurgler (2004) put forward a new dividend theory based on behavioral finance. Pandering to the theory of stock market dividend policy has a good ability to explain. Because there is a great difference between China's securities market and that of the United States, this paper will study whether the pandering theory is applicable to our country's securities market and whether it has a good ability to explain the cash dividend policy of listed companies in our country. This paper first analyzes the shortcomings of several classical dividend theories in China's securities market, and introduces the main contents of catering theory in detail. Then it analyzes the distribution of dividend and the characteristics of China's securities market, and finds that the proportion of cash dividend payment of listed companies in China is very low. A dominant and minority shareholders of the situation of weak protection. Obviously, analyzing the applicability of the theory from the perspective of the entire securities market is not rigorous enough. Therefore, this paper designs two parts to empirically test the applicability of catering theory in our country: whether the manager meets the needs of minority shareholders when formulating cash dividend policy, and whether the manager meets the needs of large shareholders when formulating cash dividend policy. In the first part of the empirical analysis, referring to the method of Baker and Wurgler (2004b) and improving it, the two-stage regression method is used to analyze. The empirical results show that the manager is making the cash dividend policy to meet the cash dividend demand of the minority shareholders; In the second part, according to the characteristics of China's securities market, this paper uses factor analysis and stepwise analysis to analyze the results. The results show that the managers also cater to the cash dividend demand of large shareholders when formulating the cash dividend policy. This indicates that the pandering theory is more concentrated in the stock rights of our country, and the minority shareholders' protection is not perfect in the stock market. It has a good ability to explain the cash dividend policy of the securities market in our country. At last, the thesis summarizes and points out the deficiency of this paper and the prospect of the next research.
【学位授予单位】：华侨大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F275;F832.51;F224

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