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资本约束下资产价格波动对银行信贷影响研究

发布时间:2018-08-25 19:36
【摘要】:随着金融市场的发展,资产价格巨幅波动事件发生的频率越来越高,而每次资产价格的快速上扬以及资产价格泡沫的破灭都对国家乃至全球的实体经济造成严重影响。商业银行作为金融活动的中心机构,其信贷规模对金融经济的影响不言而喻。研究资产价格波动是否影响银行信贷,能够确定制定信贷政策所需要考虑的因素,帮助国家政府更全面、更有效地制定信贷政策,因此具有很强的理论意义和现实意义。 本文在对前人文献进行评述的基础上,,以资产价格对银行信贷影响的理论为指导原则,分析资产价格波动影响银行信贷的典型事实,并结合资产价格波动与银行信贷在我国的现状,从资本约束的视角对影响的机制作出合理的解释。为了论证理论分析的正确性,本文选取14家上市商业银行的数据,对我国股票市场和房地产市场的价格波动对银行信贷的影响进行实证研究。同时本文引入了衡量资本约束的指标,得出以下结论:第一,我国以股票价格和房地产市场为代表的资产价格波动与银行信贷高度相关,资产价格的暴跌暴涨,资产泡沫的形成破灭都能显著影响银行信贷的规模;第二,由不良贷款率所反映的资本约束与银行信贷的增长规模高度相关。这表明我国的资本监管对银行信贷的约束力比较明显,相比04年以前资本软约束的现象有所改善。因此,信贷政策的制定需要考虑到资产市场的价格波动,并充分利用资本监管的效用。最后通过分析,本文从政府方面、股票市场及房地产市场这三方面提出政策建议,为信贷政策的制定、保持资产价格的稳定进而稳定国民经济提供一定的参考。
[Abstract]:With the development of financial markets, asset prices fluctuate more and more frequently, and every time asset prices rise rapidly and asset price bubbles burst, it has a serious impact on the real economy of the country and even the whole world. As the central institution of financial activities, the credit scale of commercial banks has an obvious impact on the financial economy. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to study whether the fluctuation of asset price affects bank credit, to determine the factors that need to be considered in the formulation of credit policy, and to help the national government to formulate credit policy more comprehensively and effectively. Based on the review of previous literatures and the theory of the influence of asset price on bank credit, this paper analyzes the typical facts that asset price fluctuation affects bank credit. Combined with the fluctuation of asset price and the current situation of bank credit in China, this paper makes a reasonable explanation of the influence mechanism from the perspective of capital constraint. In order to prove the correctness of the theoretical analysis, this paper selects the data of 14 listed commercial banks and makes an empirical study on the impact of price fluctuation on bank credit in China's stock market and real estate market. At the same time, this paper introduces the index to measure the capital constraint, and draws the following conclusions: first, the fluctuation of asset price represented by the stock price and real estate market is highly related to the bank credit, and the asset price has plummeted and skyrocketed. The formation and bursting of asset bubbles can significantly affect the scale of bank credit. Second, the capital constraints reflected by the non-performing loan ratio are highly correlated with the scale of bank credit growth. This indicates that the binding force of capital supervision on bank credit is obvious, and the phenomenon of soft capital constraint is better than that before 2004. Therefore, credit policy should take into account the price fluctuation of asset market and make full use of the utility of capital supervision. Finally, through the analysis, this article from the government aspect, the stock market and the real estate market these three aspects proposes the policy proposal, provides the certain reference for the credit policy formulation, maintains the asset price stability and then stabilizes the national economy.
【学位授予单位】:湘潭大学
【学位级别】:硕士
【学位授予年份】:2012
【分类号】:F832.4;F832.51

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