我国地方政府债券信用风险问题研究

发布时间：2018-10-08 06:24

【摘要】：我国地方政府债券于2009年由财政部代理发行,其中地方政府债务大幅增加、整顿地方政府融资平台是发展地方政府债券的一个重要背景,也是面对国际金融危机、扩大内需、发展债券市场、分散银行风险的重要举措。从发行背景来看,我国地方政府债券的发行带有应急和探索的双重性质。故此,要平衡地方政府债券的融资功能和风险问题。毋庸置疑,地方政府债券的发行利弊相伴,但是从地方政府经济持续性发展来看,发展地方政府债券利大于弊,所以地方政府债券在实践中所遇到的问题和暴露的风险需要得到重视与解决。从地方政府债券产品设计、购买对象、使用渠道、发行规模、监督管理、风险预警与防范,地方政府债券从“代发”、“自行”发债最后到“自主”发债可谓任重而道远,作为金融市场的融资工具,对于地方政府债券的投资、融资主体而言,信用风险问题是地方政府债券面临的最重要风险。通过研究地方政府债券的信用风险,分析信用风险的来源和成因,对风险预警防范,将对我国地方政府债券的持续健康发展具有重要意义。本文以2009年以来,我国财政部代理发行的地方政府债券为研究对象,通过理论与实证相结合的研究方法对地方政府债券的信用风险问题进行研究。首先,在回顾了历史上我国曾经发行的地方政府债券的情况后,重点分析了2009年以来我国地方政府债券发行状况、特点、存在问题。其次,从定性和定量两个方面对地方政府债券面临的信用风险进行分析,并进一步探究信用风险的来源及成因。从定性的角度看,地方政府债券的信用风险是客观存在的,并且结合我国实践情况和经济环境,地方政府债券的信用风险主要有以下四个来源：使用效率和用途、经济政治运行环境、地方政府债务问题、统计数据失实；从定量角度实证分析了地方政府债券的信用风险,利用改进后的KMV模型,以上海为例,分析地方政府债券的违约可能性和合理的发债规模。得出的结论是：第一,为了降低违约风险,应该合理控制地方政府债券的发行规模,通过发债规模占可担保地方政府债券财政收入比重与违约距离之间的关系可知,这个比重越大,违约风险的概率越大,越容易发生地方政府债券的违约风险。第二,违约风险与地方经济有密切的联系。第三,控制地方政府债务成为预防地方政府债券信用风险的关键因素。最后,基于以上信用风险的研究,通过总结发达国家和发展中国家地方政府债券信用风险防范经验,提出对我国地方政府债券信用风险防范的有益启示。最后,结合我国地方政府债券发行实践,对我国地方政府债券存在的信用风险问题提出合理的政策建议、防范对策。主要包括以下方面：规范完善地方政府债券产品的设计、建立完善的偿债保障机制和风险预警机制、构建完善的地方政府债券监管机制。
[Abstract]:China's local government bonds were issued by the Ministry of Finance in 2009. Among them, the local government debt increased substantially. Rectifying the local government financing platform is an important background for the development of local government bonds. It is also an important background for the development of local government bonds. Develop bond market, disperse the important measure of bank risk. From the perspective of issuing background, the issuance of local government bonds in China has the dual nature of emergency and exploration. Therefore, must balance the local government bond financing function and the risk question. There is no doubt that the advantages and disadvantages of issuing local government bonds go hand in hand, but from the point of view of the sustained economic development of local governments, the advantages of developing local government bonds outweigh the disadvantages. Therefore, the problems and exposed risks of local government bonds in practice need to be paid attention to and solved. From local government bond product design, purchase object, use channel, issue scale, supervision and management, risk warning and prevention, local government bond from "acting", "self" bond issuance to "independent" bond issuance is a long way to go. As a financing tool in the financial market, the credit risk is the most important risk faced by the local government bonds for the local government bond investment and financing subject. By studying the credit risk of local government bonds, analyzing the sources and causes of credit risk, and preventing the risk early warning, it will be of great significance for the sustainable and healthy development of local government bonds in China. In this paper, the local government bonds issued by the Ministry of Finance since 2009 as the research object, through the combination of theoretical and empirical research methods to study the credit risk of local government bonds. First of all, after reviewing the history of local government bonds issued in China, this paper focuses on the analysis of the status, characteristics and problems of local government bonds issued since 2009. Secondly, the paper analyzes the credit risk of local government bond from qualitative and quantitative aspects, and further explores the origin and cause of credit risk. From the qualitative point of view, the credit risk of local government bonds exists objectively, and the credit risk of local government bonds mainly has the following four sources: use efficiency and use, combined with the practice and economic environment of our country. This paper analyzes the credit risk of local government bonds from a quantitative point of view, using the improved KMV model, taking Shanghai as an example. Analyze the possibility of default of local government bonds and the reasonable scale of issuing bonds. The conclusions are as follows: first, in order to reduce the risk of default, we should reasonably control the issuing scale of local government bonds. The greater this proportion, the greater the probability of default risk, the more prone to default risk of local government bonds. Second, default risk and local economy have close relation. Third, controlling local government debt becomes the key factor to prevent the credit risk of local government bonds. Finally, based on the above study of credit risk, through summing up the experience of local government bond credit risk prevention in developed and developing countries, this paper puts forward some useful enlightenment to our local government bond credit risk prevention. Finally, based on the practice of issuing local government bonds in our country, the paper puts forward some reasonable policy suggestions and preventive measures to the credit risk problems of local government bonds in our country. It mainly includes the following aspects: standardizing and perfecting the design of local government bond products, establishing perfect debt service guarantee mechanism and risk warning mechanism, and constructing perfect local government bond supervision mechanism.
【学位授予单位】：东北财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F812.5

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