政府债务与央行独立性研究

发布时间：2018-11-12 14:07

【摘要】：2007爆发的次贷危机以至祸及至全球的金融危机,直到最近愈演愈烈的主权债务危机,颠覆了人们关于只有发展中国家才会发生债务危机的传统观念,也让人们对于央行独立性进行重新审视。近日,原中国货币政策委员会委员李稻葵先生在媒体撰文,彻底颠覆了人们对于央行独立性的固有认识,即将央行独立性视之为一种神话。言下之意,当前这种由内阁来给货币政策最终拍板的模式相当良好,所谓的央行独立性根本是一个不值得追求的目标,按他的话来说“独立性是一种无益的迷信”。 “财政为庶政之母”,中国目前正处于经济持续稳定的增长及经济结构深刻调整的关键时期。政府债务是如何产生的?当前暴露出来的中国地方政府债务危机应如何应对?本文正是在这一背景下,通过分析政府债务及央行独立性,望对于如今的政府债务危机的解决提出可行之路。本文在对政府债务和央行独立性的文献进行系统梳理的基础上,深入分析了政府债务的形成机制。通过从国债依存度、国债负担率、赤字率三个指标对我国国债规模进行考察,得出我国国债负担率和赤字率两个指标较低,而国债依存度偏高,总体来说,国债规模是处于警戒线以下的。央行独立性的高低是决定财政货币政策协调度的关键因素,通过对财政货币政策协调理论和实证方面的研究,论证了加强财政货币政策配合协调从而减少政策摩擦损失对于经济持续稳定增长的重要性。本文最后参照西方国家财政部和中央银行的沟通途径,给出了关于我国政府债务管理及加强政府对于央行管制的政策建议：一是在国务院的领导下成立专门的公开市场操作机构,在货币政策委员会的框架内建立完善的货币政策协调沟通机制；二是完善货币、国债等金融工具对于财政货币政策配合的作用；三是建立长期有效的政府债务监管机制,防止我国政府及地方政府债务危机的发生。本文的创新点主要包括：一是本文一反加强中央银行独立性的常论,从减少政策摩擦损失、加强财政货币政策配合方面充分论证了加强政府对于中央银行的管制的必要性,创新性的提出了要减弱中央银行独立性以及加强政府对于央行的控制。二是本文从国债依存度、国债负担率、赤字率三个指标对于我国国债规模进行了考察,得出我国国债负担率和赤字率两个指标较低,而国债依存度偏高,但总体来说,国债规模是处于警戒线以下的。因此只要我国保持目前的经济增长态势,我国的政府债务占GDP的比重将趋于稳定,不会无限制的持续增长,我国的国债规模是可持续的。
[Abstract]:The subprime mortgage crisis that broke out in 2007 and even the global financial crisis, until recently the growing sovereign debt crisis, overturned the traditional notion that only developing countries would have a debt crisis. It has also revisited the independence of central banks. Recently, Li Daokui, a former member of China's Monetary Policy Committee, wrote in the media, which completely overturned the inherent understanding of the central bank's independence, which is regarded as a myth. By implication, the current model of cabinet giving monetary policy final approval is good. The so-called central bank independence is an unworthy goal, and in his words, "independence is a useless superstition." China is now in a critical period of sustained and stable economic growth and profound adjustment of its economic structure. How did government debt come into being? How to deal with the current local government debt crisis in China? Under this background, this paper, by analyzing the government debt and the independence of the central bank, hopes to put forward a feasible way to solve the present government debt crisis. On the basis of systematically combing the literature on government debt and the independence of central bank, this paper deeply analyzes the formation mechanism of government debt. By investigating the scale of our country's national debt from the three indicators of national debt dependence, national debt burden rate and deficit rate, it is concluded that the national debt burden rate and deficit rate of our country are low, while the degree of national debt dependence is on the high side. Generally speaking, The scale of national debt is below the warning line. The independence of central bank is the key factor to determine the degree of coordination of fiscal and monetary policy. The importance of strengthening the coordination of fiscal and monetary policies to reduce the loss of policy friction for the sustained and stable economic growth is demonstrated. Finally, referring to the communication channels between finance ministries and central banks of western countries, This paper gives some policy suggestions on government debt management and strengthening the government's control over the central bank: first, the establishment of a special open market operation agency under the leadership of the State Council. To establish a perfect monetary policy coordination and communication mechanism within the framework of the Monetary Policy Committee; The second is to perfect the role of financial instruments such as money and treasury bonds in the coordination of fiscal and monetary policies, and the third is to establish a long-term and effective government debt supervision mechanism to prevent the occurrence of debt crisis between our government and local governments. The innovations of this paper mainly include: first, this paper reverse the common theory of strengthening the independence of the central bank, from reducing the loss of policy friction, Strengthening the coordination of fiscal and monetary policy fully demonstrates the necessity of strengthening the government's control over the central bank, and creatively proposes to weaken the independence of the central bank and strengthen the government's control over the central bank. Secondly, this paper investigates the scale of China's national debt from the three indicators of national debt dependence, national debt burden rate and deficit rate, and concludes that the national debt burden rate and deficit rate of our country are relatively low, while the degree of national debt dependence is on the high side, but generally speaking, The scale of national debt is below the warning line. So long as our country maintains the present economic growth situation, our country government debt the proportion of GDP will tend to be stable, will not be unlimited and sustainable growth, our national debt scale is sustainable.
【学位授予单位】：贵州财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F812.5;F832.31

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