一二级核证减排量市场价格及两者关系研究

发布时间：2018-11-28 14:00

【摘要】：近二十年来，气候变暖给人类造成了巨大的伤害，成为全球关注的焦点问题。国际排放贸易机制、联合履行机制和清洁发展机制是《京都议定书》下国际减排合作的三大协调机制，旨在帮助各缔约国以灵活的方式完成减排目标。在清洁发展机制下，中国是最大的核证减排量供给国但无完善的碳交易机制和市场，交易价格一直由发达国家主导，核证减排量国内一级市场和国际二级市场价格长期存在大幅差额。在这种情况下，对一二级核证减排量市场价格关系进行分析，可以明晰一二级核证减排量市场反映供求状况的能力；在此基础上，探究核证减排量市场价格影响因素，可以更深入具体的了解现阶段我国碳交易价格形成机制，具有重要的理论和现实意义。基于此，本文采取理论分析与实证分析相结合的方法，对一二级核证减排量市场的价格关系进行考察，并系统分析核证减排量市场价格的影响因素，进一步提出完善碳交易的策略。论文主体首先考察了二级核证减排量市场发展现状、二级市场价格波动状况及其影响因素；接着以国内市场为对象，，对一级核证减排量市场价格进行了分析。借助于协整分析和误差修正模型等方法，实证分析一二级核证减排量市场价格关系，在此基础上，系统分析影响一级核证减排量市场价格的因素。最后基于实证分析的结论，提出提高一级核证减排量供给质量、建立完善的市场交易机制、优化政府调控方式、培育本土中介和注重碳交易人才培养等发展完善我国碳交易市场的政策建议。
[Abstract]:In the past two decades, global warming has caused great harm to human beings and become the focus of global attention. The international emission trading mechanism, the joint implementation mechanism and the clean development mechanism are the three major coordination mechanisms of the international emission reduction cooperation under the Kyoto Protocol, which aims to help the parties to achieve their emission reduction targets in a flexible manner. Under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), China is the largest supplier of CERs but does not have a sound carbon trading mechanism and market, with prices always dominated by developed countries. There is a large difference between the domestic primary market and the international secondary market price. In this case, an analysis of the market price relationship between the first and second levels of CERs could clarify the ability of the market for CERs to reflect the supply and demand situation; On this basis, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to explore the factors affecting the market price of CERs and to understand the price formation mechanism of carbon trading in China at this stage. Based on this, this paper adopts the method of combining theoretical analysis and empirical analysis to investigate the price relationship of the first and second level CERs market, and systematically analyzes the influencing factors of CER market price. Further put forward to improve the strategy of carbon trading. Firstly, the paper reviews the current situation of the second level CER market, the price fluctuation of the secondary market and its influencing factors, and then analyzes the market price of the first CER market with the domestic market as the object. With the help of cointegration analysis and error correction model, this paper empirically analyzes the market price relationship between the first and second levels of CERs. On this basis, the factors affecting the market price of CERs are systematically analyzed. Finally, based on the conclusion of empirical analysis, the paper proposes to improve the supply quality of CERs, to establish a perfect market trading mechanism, and to optimize government regulation and control. To develop and perfect China's carbon trading market, such as cultivating local intermediaries and paying attention to the training of carbon trading personnel.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F205;F832.51

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