基于产业安全视角的我国SHFE钢铁定价地位研究
发布时间：2018-11-29 09:08
【摘要】：随着我国加入WTO并更深入地参与到经济全球化进程,加之城市化和工业化步伐不断加快,我国对钢铁的需求增长非常迅速,然而,面对国际市场的冲击,近几年我国钢材价格波动明显加剧,不断威胁着我国的钢铁产业安全以及国家的经济安全。本文在此背景下,从产业安全视角,对我国钢铁定价地位进行研究,不仅有利于维护和促进我国钢铁产业的发展,还可以为我国争取其他大宗商品定价权和维护国家其他产业安全提供借鉴。 本文在对相关理论综述和现实状况分析的基础上,运用动态条件相关多元GARCH (DCC—MGARCH)模型,Garbade-Silber(G-S)模型等计量方法,基于产业安全视角对我国上海期货交易所(SHFE)的钢铁期货价格和伦敦金属交易所(LME)、印度大宗商品交易所(MCX)的钢铁期货价格进行系统的实证分析,以期检验我国钢铁期货市场的定价地位；并将定价权引入钢铁产业安全指标体系中,检验定价权对我国钢铁产业安全的影响。研究发现：(1)虽然伦敦金属交易所(LME)钢铁市场在世界市场上仍然保有价格信息发现的中心地位,但上海期货交易所(SHFE)钢铁市场已不再是国际钢铁定价关系中的被动接受者,而是一个重要的参与者,存在对伦敦金属交易所(LME)和印度大宗商品交易所(MCX)钢铁市场的信息波动。(2)国内钢材现货价格受到国内和国际期货市场的双重影响,国内期货市场部分的拥有国内现货的定价权,但国内现货价格仍然受前一期的价格和国外发达期货市场定价中心(LME)的影响比较多,还不能认为钢铁期货对国内钢材市场的决定性定价机制已经形成。(3)将前两项实证结果转化为调整系数引入钢铁产业安全评价指标体系,发现我国钢铁期货市场对钢铁产品的定价权比之发达国家仍然不足。定价权缺失的不利影响主要表现在产业对外依存度方面,从钢铁期货市场定价权的总体情况看,我国已经获得部分的定价权,目前定价权问题对我国钢铁产业的不利影响并非难以逆转。最后,基于前面的研究,本文从国家产业安全的角度提出了提高我国钢铁期货市场定价地位的相应政策建议。
[Abstract]:With China's entry into WTO and its deeper participation in the process of economic globalization, in addition to the accelerating pace of urbanization and industrialization, China's demand for steel is growing very rapidly. However, in the face of the impact of the international market, In recent years, the fluctuation of steel price in China has become more and more serious, which threatens the safety of China's steel industry and national economy. In this context, this paper, from the perspective of industrial safety, studies the pricing status of iron and steel in China, which is not only conducive to maintaining and promoting the development of China's iron and steel industry. It can also be used for reference for China to strive for other commodity pricing rights and to maintain national other industrial safety. Based on the summary of relevant theories and the analysis of practical situation, this paper uses dynamic conditional correlation multivariate GARCH (DCC-MGARCH) model, Garbade-Silber (G-S) model and other metrological methods. Based on the perspective of industrial safety, this paper makes a systematic and empirical analysis of the iron and steel futures prices of (SHFE) in Shanghai Futures Exchange and (MCX) of (MCX) in London Metal Exchange. In order to test the pricing status of China's iron and steel futures market; The pricing power is introduced into the safety index system of iron and steel industry to test the influence of pricing power on the safety of China's iron and steel industry. The study found that: (1) although the London Metal Exchange (LME) (LME) Steel Market still holds the central position of price information discovery in the world market, But the (SHFE) steel market on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is no longer a passive recipient of international steel pricing relationships, but an important participant. There are information fluctuations on the London Metal Exchange (LME) and India's Commodity Exchange (MCX) steel markets. (2) the spot prices of domestic steel are influenced by both domestic and international futures markets. Part of the domestic futures market has the pricing power of domestic spot, but the domestic spot price is still affected by the price of the previous period and the foreign developed futures market pricing center (LME). It can not be considered that the decisive pricing mechanism of iron and steel futures to domestic steel market has been formed. (3) the first two empirical results are transformed into the adjustment coefficient into the steel industry safety evaluation index system. It is found that the pricing power of iron and steel futures market is still insufficient in developed countries. The negative impact of the lack of pricing power is mainly reflected in the degree of dependence of the industry on external relations. From the overall situation of pricing power in the iron and steel futures market, China has obtained part of the pricing power. At present, the adverse effect of pricing power on China's iron and steel industry is not difficult to reverse. Finally, based on the previous research, this paper puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations to improve the pricing status of China's iron and steel futures market from the point of view of national industrial security.
【学位授予单位】：东华大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.31;F831.51
本文编号：2364581
[Abstract]:With China's entry into WTO and its deeper participation in the process of economic globalization, in addition to the accelerating pace of urbanization and industrialization, China's demand for steel is growing very rapidly. However, in the face of the impact of the international market, In recent years, the fluctuation of steel price in China has become more and more serious, which threatens the safety of China's steel industry and national economy. In this context, this paper, from the perspective of industrial safety, studies the pricing status of iron and steel in China, which is not only conducive to maintaining and promoting the development of China's iron and steel industry. It can also be used for reference for China to strive for other commodity pricing rights and to maintain national other industrial safety. Based on the summary of relevant theories and the analysis of practical situation, this paper uses dynamic conditional correlation multivariate GARCH (DCC-MGARCH) model, Garbade-Silber (G-S) model and other metrological methods. Based on the perspective of industrial safety, this paper makes a systematic and empirical analysis of the iron and steel futures prices of (SHFE) in Shanghai Futures Exchange and (MCX) of (MCX) in London Metal Exchange. In order to test the pricing status of China's iron and steel futures market; The pricing power is introduced into the safety index system of iron and steel industry to test the influence of pricing power on the safety of China's iron and steel industry. The study found that: (1) although the London Metal Exchange (LME) (LME) Steel Market still holds the central position of price information discovery in the world market, But the (SHFE) steel market on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is no longer a passive recipient of international steel pricing relationships, but an important participant. There are information fluctuations on the London Metal Exchange (LME) and India's Commodity Exchange (MCX) steel markets. (2) the spot prices of domestic steel are influenced by both domestic and international futures markets. Part of the domestic futures market has the pricing power of domestic spot, but the domestic spot price is still affected by the price of the previous period and the foreign developed futures market pricing center (LME). It can not be considered that the decisive pricing mechanism of iron and steel futures to domestic steel market has been formed. (3) the first two empirical results are transformed into the adjustment coefficient into the steel industry safety evaluation index system. It is found that the pricing power of iron and steel futures market is still insufficient in developed countries. The negative impact of the lack of pricing power is mainly reflected in the degree of dependence of the industry on external relations. From the overall situation of pricing power in the iron and steel futures market, China has obtained part of the pricing power. At present, the adverse effect of pricing power on China's iron and steel industry is not difficult to reverse. Finally, based on the previous research, this paper puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations to improve the pricing status of China's iron and steel futures market from the point of view of national industrial security.
【学位授予单位】：东华大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.31;F831.51
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前10条
1 黄建军;中国的产业安全问题[J];财经科学;2001年06期
2 高辉;赵进文;;期货价格收益率与波动性的实证研究——以中国上海与英国伦敦为例[J];财经问题研究;2007年02期
3 李泳;王爱玲;;中国重点行业安全评价指标体系研究[J];财经研究;2006年10期
4 徐匡迪;;中国钢铁工业的发展和技术创新[J];钢铁;2008年02期
5 欧阳日辉;全球化背景下的中国期货市场开放战略[J];国际经济合作;2005年07期
6 刘庆富;张金清;华仁海;;LME与SHFE金属期货市场之间的信息传递效应研究[J];管理工程学报;2008年02期
7 杨化邦;;中国钢铁产业安全关键要素分析[J];中国管理信息化;2011年03期
8 王万山;伍世安;;我国争取大宗进口物资国际定价权的基本策*略[J];贵州财经学院学报;2006年05期
9 常清;;建立定价中心与期货市场的国际化[J];价格理论与实践;2006年01期
10 陈玉财;李姝;;我国大宗商品定价权的现实思考与策略选择[J];价格理论与实践;2009年04期
相关硕士学位论文 前5条
1 刘庆柏;我国大宗商品国际定价权研究[D];南京财经大学;2010年
2 何新貌;中国铁矿石进口定价权缺失问题研究[D];西南财经大学;2007年
3 陈绍国;中国钢铁产业安全度评价与维护[D];上海外国语大学;2009年
4 丁博;大宗商品定价权与经济安全[D];西南财经大学;2009年
5 周吉;我国钢材期货和现货价格关系研究[D];复旦大学;2010年
，本文编号：2364581
本文链接：https://www.wllwen.com/guanlilunwen/zhqtouz/2364581.html
最近更新
教材专著
