我国地方政府性债务安全规模研究

发布时间：2019-01-01 19:32

【摘要】：欧洲债务危机引起世界各国的高度关注,我国地方政府性债务问题也日益凸现出来,尤其是地方政府性债务规模问题成为各界人士讨论的焦点。我国地方政府性债务具有许多自身的特点,比如政府搭建平台间接举债,债务资金主要用于基础设施建设,资金来源依赖银行,债务偿还依赖地方财政收入,债务规模庞大且增长迅速等等,地方政府性债务规模直接影响到地方财政风险和国家金融安全,确立合理的债务规模是维护国家金融安全的一项重要而紧迫的任务。本文在借鉴国内外大量研究成果的基础上,采用理论联系实践的办法,深入分析了我国地方政府性债务安全规模问题。本文首先系统地梳理了国内外有关地方政府性债务的相关理论和实践情况,分析了我国地方政府性债务的现状和特点,从政府违约风险的角度出发,通过引入国际常用风险测度模型KMV模型的相关思想,建立了适合我国地方政府性债务安全规模测定的模型,并以北京市为例展示了债务安全规模测算的过程。文章最后还从债务存量和增量两个方面对控制地方政府性债务规模提出了相关思路和可操作性的建议,提出我国要加强中央管理和立法保障,完善相关会计制度,引入信用评价机构,同时政府部门要开源节流,改革绩效考核机制等。本文的创新之处有两点。一是以2011年6月国家审计署首次公布的我国地方政府性债务相关数据为基础,对当前我国地方政府性债务实际情况进行了深入细致的分析；二是在债务安全规模界定的基础上,借鉴国际常用风险测度模型,从地方政府偿债角度设计出测算债务安全规模的模型。
[Abstract]:The debt crisis in Europe has aroused the attention of all countries in the world, and the problem of local government debt in China has become increasingly prominent, especially the problem of the scale of local government debt has become the focus of discussion in all walks of life. Our local government debt has many characteristics, such as the government to build a platform for indirect borrowing, debt funds are mainly used for infrastructure construction, the source of funds depends on banks, debt repayment depends on local financial revenue. The scale of local government debt has a direct impact on the local financial risk and national financial security. It is an important and urgent task to maintain the national financial security to establish a reasonable debt scale. Based on a large number of domestic and foreign research results, this paper analyzes the security scale of local government debt in China by means of combining theory with practice. Firstly, this paper systematically combs the relevant theories and practices of local government debt at home and abroad, analyzes the present situation and characteristics of local government debt in China, and sets out from the angle of government default risk. By introducing the idea of international risk measurement model (KMV), this paper establishes a model suitable for the measurement of the security scale of local government debt in China, and takes Beijing as an example to demonstrate the process of calculating the scale of debt safety. Finally, the paper puts forward some suggestions on how to control the scale of local government debt from the two aspects of debt stock and increment, and points out that our country should strengthen the central management and legislative guarantee, perfect the relevant accounting system. The introduction of credit evaluation institutions, at the same time government departments to increase revenue and reduce expenditure, the reform of performance evaluation mechanism. There are two innovations in this paper. First, based on the data related to local government debt published for the first time by the National Audit Office in June 2011, this paper makes a thorough and detailed analysis of the actual situation of local government debt in China. Secondly, on the basis of defining the scale of debt security, a model for calculating the scale of debt safety is designed from the perspective of local governments.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F812.5;F224

【参考文献】