我国ST公司股票投资分析及价值评估

发布时间：2019-01-02 19:52

【摘要】：ST股票作为我国股票市场中特有的一类股票，从1998年问世之日起便一直是市场关注的热点，今年年初推出创业板退市制度以后它再次成为了市场上的热门话题。ST股票投资具有其自身的特点，例如波动性高，风险较大等等，这些往往使得它成为投机者博弈的乐园。本文分为六章。第一章绪论描述了选题背景、意义、研究思路以及创新点。第二章分析了ST股票定价的理论基础。第三章着重分析我国ST公司的现状及各ST公司的成因。第四章首先分析了ST公司股票是否存在超额收益，然后着重研究ST股票投资风险中特有的退市风险，通过实证检验找出影响ST公司退市的财务指标，并获得判别方程，找出退市风险较大的股票也是理性投资的第一步。第五章是在第四章的基础上，利用历史数据对退市风险不同的ST公司用不同的价值评估方法对其股票进行估值，并分析每种估值法的可行性，在剔除风险标的后找出具有投资价值的股票则是最重要的一步。第六章是本文的小结部分。本文的研究成果主要包括：ST公司的成因是复杂多样的，应区别对待；ST公司相对于市场来说存在超额的收益，，而这些超额收益的来源包括内因与外因两部分；ST公司股票的退市在其退市前一至两年公司的某些指标会出现明显变化，找出这些显著变化的财务指标对减少ST股票投资风险有着显著的作用；在对ST股票估值时不可一概而论，应对不同类型公司采用不同的方法，从而得到更准确的估值。
[Abstract]:As a kind of special stock in Chinese stock market, ST stock has been a hot spot in the market since it came out in 1998. After the introduction of the gem delisting system at the beginning of this year, it has once again become a hot topic in the market. ST stock investment has its own characteristics, such as high volatility, high risk and so on, which often make it a paradise for speculators to play games. This paper is divided into six chapters. The first chapter describes the background, significance, research ideas and innovation. The second chapter analyzes the theoretical basis of ST stock pricing. The third chapter focuses on the analysis of the current situation of China's ST Company and the causes of each ST Company. In the fourth chapter, we analyze whether there is excess return in ST stock, and then focus on the delisting risk of ST stock investment, and find out the financial indexes that influence the delisting of ST company by empirical test, and obtain the discriminant equation. It is also the first step in rational investment to find stocks that are at greater risk of delisting. The fifth chapter is based on the fourth chapter, using historical data to evaluate the stock of ST companies with different delisting risks, and analyze the feasibility of each valuation method. The most important step is to find stocks with investment value after removing the underlying risk. The sixth chapter is the summary of this paper. The research results of this paper mainly include: the causes of ST company are complex and diverse, should be treated differently; ST company has excess income relative to the market, and the sources of these excess returns include internal cause and external factor. The delisting of ST stock will change obviously one or two years before delisting. Finding out these significant financial indexes will play a significant role in reducing the risk of ST stock investment. When valuing ST shares, one cannot generalize that different types of companies should adopt different methods to get more accurate valuations.
【学位授予单位】：华中科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.51

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