上市公司高管过度自信对股利分配决策的影响研究

发布时间：2019-01-05 11:07

【摘要】：由于我国上市公司高管在决策中容易产生过度自信的心理偏好,这就使得高管容易偏离理性决策,进而会对公司产生影响。通过对国内外过度自信对股利分配决策影响的文献研究,发现有的实证研究结果为正相关关系,有的结果为负相关关系,基于此本文通过理论分析来研究过度自信对股利分配的影响决策在何种条件下成立,并通过实证研究来检验这种关系是否成立。这对规范我国上市公司股利分配决策行为、探索上市公司股利分配决策机制、提高上市公司质量,进而保障我国证券市场健康、稳定、持续发展具有非常重要的理论和实际意义。本文首先通过对国内外相关文献研究,梳理相关理论,并界定了过度自信的定义。其次,从个人心理偏差和决策环境两个角度对我国上市公司高管的过度自信心理偏好进行了分析,并找出适合度量我国上市公司高管过度自信的替代变量。之后,通过对过度自信与股利分配决策的理论关系推导,得出当过度自信的上市公司高管预期到投资项目的市场环境-风险收益系数大于公司实际经营中所面临的市场环境风险-收益系数的均值时,股利分配水平与其过度自信负相关；当过度自信的高管预期到投资项目的市场环境风险收益系数小于公司实际经营中所面临的市场环境风险-收益系数的均值时,股利分配水平与其过度自信正相关。为检验理论关系推导结论的正确性,本文以2007-2009年间我国上市公司高管持股数量和股利分配决策的相关数据为研究样本,构建了过度自信对股利分配决策影响的统计模型,并进行实证分析。实证研究结果显示,当上市公司高管对下一年度的预期收益大于当年的实际收益时,高管过度自信与上市公司股利分配决策之间存在显著的负相关关系；当上市公司高管对下一年度的预期收益小于当年的实际收益时,高管过度自信与上市公司股利分配决策之间存在显著的正相关关系。实证结论能支持理论模型的结论。最后在理论分析的基础上提出相应的建议。
[Abstract]:Since the executives of listed companies in our country are prone to overconfidence in their decision-making, it makes them deviate from rational decisions, which will have an impact on the company. Through the literature research on the influence of overconfidence on dividend distribution decision, we find that some empirical results are positive correlation, and others are negative correlation. Based on this, this paper studies the influence of overconfidence on dividend distribution by theoretical analysis under what conditions, and through empirical research to test whether this relationship is true or not. This will standardize the decision making behavior of dividend distribution of listed companies in China, explore the decision-making mechanism of dividend distribution of listed companies, improve the quality of listed companies, and then ensure the health and stability of China's securities market. Sustainable development has very important theoretical and practical significance. This paper firstly combs the relevant theories and defines the definition of overconfidence by studying the relevant literature at home and abroad. Secondly, from the perspective of personal psychological bias and decision-making environment, this paper analyzes the overconfidence psychological preference of senior executives of listed companies in China, and finds out the appropriate alternative variables to measure the overconfidence of senior executives in Chinese listed companies. After that, the theoretical relationship between overconfidence and dividend allocation decision is deduced. When the overconfident executives expect that the market environment-risk return coefficient of the investment project is greater than the average of the market environment risk-return coefficient in the actual operation of the company, The level of dividend distribution is negatively correlated with its overconfidence; When the overconfident executives expect that the return coefficient of market environment risk is smaller than the average of the market environment risk- return coefficient in the actual operation of the company, the dividend distribution level is positively correlated with its overconfidence. In order to test the correctness of the conclusion of the theoretical relationship, this paper takes the data of the stock ownership of senior executives and the decision of dividend allocation in China's listed companies from 2007 to 2009 as the research samples, and constructs a statistical model of the influence of overconfidence on the dividend distribution decision. And carries on the empirical analysis. The empirical results show that there is a significant negative correlation between executive overconfidence and dividend allocation decision when the expected income of the listed company in the next year is higher than that of the actual return in the current year. When the expected income of the listed company for the next year is less than the actual income of the current year, there is a significant positive correlation between the overconfidence of the executives and the dividend allocation decision of the listed company. The empirical conclusion can support the conclusion of the theoretical model. Finally, the corresponding suggestions are put forward on the basis of theoretical analysis.
【学位授予单位】：中南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F275;F832.51;F224

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