我国国际投机资本流入的影响因素研究

发布时间：2019-01-05 04:38

【摘要】：随着全球化进程的加深，各国经济的联系已经越来越紧密，我国自2001年加入世界贸易组织以来，市场开放力度不断加大，在享受着对外开放所获得的红利同时，我国金融市场所面临的风险也是与日俱增，其中最主要的风险就来自于国际投机资本流入对我国经济的冲击。由于国际投机资本呈现出高流动性、逐利性、高破坏性等特点，如果其不受限制的大规模流入，不但会扰乱我国金融秩序，，更是严重威胁到我国国民经济的健康运行，特别现阶段我国金融市场尚不完善，监管体系尚不健全，所面临的国际投机资本流入冲击的压力更大。因此，对国际投机资本进入我国的影响因素的研究具有重要的现实意义。本文在以往国内外学者研究成果的基础上，在对近年来国际投机资本流入我国的规模，途径，以及对我国市场的影响进行阐述后。重点研究了我国国际投机资本流入的影响因素，笔者在考察了国内外相关文献的基础上，进一步全面的选取了即期汇率因素，中美利率差因素，股票市场因素，房地产市场因素，国内宏观经济因素等五个要素进行分析，并根据国际投机资本短期性，灵敏性的特点采用2008年1月到2011年12月48个月的月度数据对国际投机资本流入我国的影响因素进行了实证分析。本文采用协整分析的方法建立了长期均衡模型最后建立短期动态的误差修正模型。结果表明，五个因素中，中美利率差因素，股票市场因素、宏观经济因素对于我国国际投机资本流入有着显著影响，而房地产因素和即期汇率因素对于我国国际投机资本流入的影响并不显著，这与之前有些学者的研究并不一致，经笔者研究发现关于房地产因素不显著的原因可能与我国持续的房地产调控有关。而即期汇率水平因为已经形成，对于国际投机资本控制汇率风险所提供的参考价值有限，即期汇率的涨跌并不能很好的预测远期汇率，形成汇率预期。可能是其不显著的主要原因。最后，基于本文研究结果，从我国国际投机资本流入的影响因素入手，提出了对策建议。主要分为政策层面建议和技术层面建议。提出了加快我国利率市场化改革，完善股票市场，打击地下钱庄等政策建议。
[Abstract]:With the deepening of the globalization process, the economic ties of various countries have become more and more close. Since China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, the opening up of the market has been continuously strengthened, and at the same time, it enjoys the dividends of opening to the outside world. China's financial market is facing increasing risks, among which the most important risk comes from the impact of international speculative capital inflows on China's economy. Because the international speculative capital has the characteristics of high liquidity, profit-banding and high destruction, if it is not restricted in a large scale, it will not only disturb the financial order of our country, but also seriously threaten the healthy operation of our national economy. Especially at present, the financial market is not perfect, the supervision system is not perfect, and the pressure of international speculative capital inflow is even greater. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to study the influence factors of international speculative capital entering our country. Based on the previous research results of scholars at home and abroad, this paper expounds the scale, ways and influence of international speculative capital inflow into China in recent years. On the basis of reviewing the relevant literature at home and abroad, the author selects the spot exchange rate factor, the interest rate difference factor between China and the United States, and the stock market factor. Real estate market factors, domestic macroeconomic factors and other five factors are analyzed, and according to the short-term nature of international speculative capital, Based on the monthly data from January 2008 to December 2011, the factors affecting the inflow of international speculative capital into China are empirically analyzed. In this paper, a long-term equilibrium model is established by cointegration analysis. Finally, a short-term dynamic error correction model is established. The results show that, of the five factors, interest rate difference between China and the United States, stock market factors and macroeconomic factors have a significant impact on China's international speculative capital inflow. However, the impact of real estate factors and spot exchange rate factors on China's international speculative capital inflow is not significant, which is inconsistent with previous studies by some scholars. The author finds that the reason why the real estate factor is not significant may be related to the continuous real estate regulation and control in China. Because the spot exchange rate level has been formed, the reference value for international speculative capital to control exchange rate risk is limited. The rise and fall of spot exchange rate can not well predict forward exchange rate and form exchange rate expectation. May be the main reason for its lack of significance. Finally, based on the results of this paper, the author puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions based on the influencing factors of China's international speculative capital inflow. It is mainly divided into policy level suggestion and technical level suggestion. Some policy suggestions such as speeding up the reform of interest rate marketization, perfecting the stock market and cracking down on underground banks are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：西南政法大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.5

【参考文献】