大学毕业生保留工资落差与失业持续时间研究——来自山东省的经验证据

发布时间：2018-06-11 23:36

本文选题：保留工资落差 + 失业持续时间工作搜寻　；参考：《宏观经济研究》2015年05期

【摘要】：保留工资和失业持续时间是工作搜寻理论的两个重要议题。目前有关大学毕业生保留工资对失业持续时间的影响研究尚无定论。本文利用持续时间模型考察了保留工资落差对大学毕业生失业持续时间的影响,主要发现有:(1)87%的大学毕业生在就业中存在较大的保留工资落差,即工资期望被高估了41%;(2)其他影响因素既定时,大学毕业生保留工资落差每增长1%,实现就业的概率就下降0.21%,预期的失业持续时间将延长0.14%;(3)规模参数估计显示α=1.4991,表明大学毕业生找到工作的概率随着失业持续时间延长而增加。这些发现共同表明:大学毕业生仍需要对保留工资和失业持续时间进行权衡并作出理性选择。
[Abstract]:Retention of wages and duration of unemployment are two important issues in job search theory. At present, there is no conclusion on the effect of college graduates' retention wages on the duration of unemployment. In this paper, we use the duration model to investigate the effect of the retention wage gap on the unemployment duration of college graduates. It is found that there is a large retention wage gap in the employment of 1% or 87% of the graduates. That is, when the wage expectation is overestimated by 41% / 2) other influential factors are established, For every increase in the gap of college graduates' wages, the probability of achieving employment decreases by 0.21, and the expected duration of unemployment will be prolonged by 0.14%. The estimation of the scale parameters shows that the probability of college graduates finding jobs increases with the prolongation of the duration of unemployment. Together, these findings suggest that college graduates still need to weigh the retention of wages against the duration of unemployment and make rational choices.
【作者单位】：西南财经大学中国西部经济研究中心;
【基金】：国家社科基金“大学毕业生就业中的工资落差、失业时间相关问题研究”(11CRK018)项目的资助
【分类号】：G647.38;F249.24

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