中国女子10000m跑成绩的灰色马尔科夫模型预测的研究

发布时间：2018-03-17 11:45

本文选题：女子　切入点：10000m　出处：《辽宁师范大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：伴随着《奥运争光计划》的制订与实施及“119计划”的提出与开展,使中国田径运动朝着更国际化、更高效、更快速、更健康的方向发展。冯树勇指出,我国女子运动员在10000m项目多年来一直是摘金夺银的传统优势项目,也是我们今后继续坚持、大力发展的田径“拳头”项目;王秀香,张莉清,夏冬,刘毓钟等人从奥运会与世锦赛的角度分析研究中国田径运动竞技发展的现状及其未来发展的方向,并指出中国优势项目女子10000m运动的发展态势良好,在将来仍将是争金夺银需要重点发展的项目。因此,科学地预测该项目的成绩,对于客观分析其发展态势,制定相应的调控政策,为其更好的科学训练和可持续发展具有重要的理论价值和实践意义。鉴于此,结合女子田径10000m项目的年度最好成绩存在的随机性和波动性等特点,本文借助灰色GM(1.1)预测模型的优点与马尔科夫预测模型的优点之间存在的互补性,从而建立灰色马尔科夫预测模型对中国女子10000m的年度最好成绩进行分析研究。
[Abstract]:With the formulation and implementation of the "Olympic glory winning plan" and the proposal and development of the "119 Plan," China's track and field sports have developed in a more international, efficient, faster and healthier direction. Feng Shuyong pointed out that. For many years, Chinese women athletes have been the traditional advantages of winning gold and silver in the 10000m event, and are also the "fist" events in track and field that we will continue to adhere to and vigorously develop in the future; Wang Xiuxiang, Zhang Liqing, Xia Dong, Liu Yuzhong and others analyzed and studied the present situation and future development direction of China's track and field sports from the perspective of the Olympic Games and the World Championships, and pointed out that the development of women's 10000m sports in China's dominant events is in a good situation. In the future, it will still be a key item to develop for gold and silver. Therefore, to scientifically predict the achievements of the project, to objectively analyze its development situation and formulate corresponding regulatory policies, It has important theoretical value and practical significance for better scientific training and sustainable development. In view of this, combined with the characteristics of randomness and volatility of the best results in women's 10000m track and field events, In this paper, the advantages of grey GM-1) prediction model and the advantages of Markov prediction model are complementary. Thus, the grey Markov prediction model is established to analyze and study the best achievement of Chinese women in the year of 10000m.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：G822.3

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