世界田径锦标赛标枪成绩发展态势分析及灰色预测

发布时间：2018-07-25 10:58

【摘要】：为进一步了解世界标枪项目的发展水平及发展趋势,促进我国标枪项目的进一步突破,将以田径运动世界大赛之一的田径锦标赛为例,采用文献资料法、数理统计法、灰色预测分析法、比较分析法等,对世界田径锦标赛标枪成绩发展态势进行分析,运用灰色预测模型对第16届世界田径锦标赛男、女标枪第1名运动员成绩进行预测。通过分析结果研究得出:1)世界田径锦标赛男女标枪整体发展趋势具有一致性,都呈上升趋势,但上升幅度都不大;2)世界田径锦标赛男女标枪运动员的成绩变化规律不同,其中,男子标枪运动员的成绩起伏较大并且届内竞争激烈,即组间差异大、组内差异小,这在一定程度上有利于运动员在世锦赛上取得更优异的成绩;而女子则与之相反;3)我国男女标枪成绩在近些年有所提高,特别是女子标枪取得一定成绩,但仍然面临很大的挑战;4)第16届世界田径锦标赛标枪成绩第1名的预测值男子为91.59 m、女子为68.57 m。
[Abstract]:In order to further understand the development level and trend of world javelin events and promote the further breakthrough of javelin events in China, the track and field championships, one of the world competitions in track and field sports, will be taken as an example, the method of literature and mathematical statistics will be adopted. The development situation of javelin achievement in world track and field championships was analyzed by grey prediction analysis and comparative analysis. The results of the 1st athletes of men and women javelin in the 16th world track and field championship were forecasted by using grey prediction model. The results show that the overall development trend of male and female javelins in the World Athletics Championships is consistent, both of them are on the rise, but the range is not large. 2) the performance of male and female javelin athletes in the World Athletics Championships is different, among which, The results of male javelin athletes fluctuate greatly and the competition in the session is fierce, that is, the difference between groups is great, and the difference in group is small, which to a certain extent helps the athletes to obtain more excellent results in the world championships; Women, on the contrary, have improved in recent years, especially in women's javelin. However, it still faces a great challenge. 4) the forecast value of javelin score in the 16th World Athletic Championships is 91.59 mmfor men and 68.57mm.
【作者单位】：北京体育大学;
【分类号】：G824.3

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