我国住房价格泡沫的生成和破裂机制研究

发布时间：2017-12-26 18:02

本文关键词：我国住房价格泡沫的生成和破裂机制研究　出处：《经济研究参考》2017年09期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：资本市场中理性投资者与非理性投资者占比很小,而混合理性投资者更能代表广大投资者真实状态。当房价快速上涨时,混合理性投资者将住房视为一种资产,基于已掌握的信息进行理性投资,但并不知道所掌握信息的真伪,因此其理性决定带有非理性因素,由此触发了正反馈投机机制。本文认为,交易者对信息的反应程度以及投机意愿越强烈,触发正反馈投资行为的可能性越大,进而房价上涨形成泡沫。而当预期转变时,由于住房具有消费和民生属性,其价格下跌路径不遵从正反馈机制,而表现为收敛于其均衡价格。但是在有效消费性需求存在的情况下,不论是房价泡沫生成还是破裂,都具有一定黏性。这说明房价泡沫既不会骤然生成,也难以突然破裂。本文的实证部分检验了我国北京、上海、河北和全国平均房价泡沫水平,较好地证明了此结论,同时还证明了泡沫存在与否不取决于房价绝对水平的高低,而取决于其是否非平稳性偏离于均衡房价。
[Abstract]:In the capital market, the proportion of rational investors and irrational investors is very small, and the mixed rational investors can represent the real state of the majority of investors. When housing prices rise rapidly, mixed rational investors regard housing as an asset, and invest rationally based on the information they have already grasped, but do not know the authenticity of the information, so their rational decision has irrational factors, which triggers the positive feedback speculative mechanism. This paper argues that the more intense the traders' information is, the more likely they will be to generate speculative interest, and the greater the probability of triggering positive feedback investment behavior, then the rising of housing prices will form bubbles. When the expectation is changed, because the housing has the property of consumption and people's livelihood, its price decline path does not follow the positive feedback mechanism, which converges to its equilibrium price. However, in the presence of effective consumer demand, whether it is a bubble generation or rupture, it has a certain viscosity. This suggests that the housing bubble will neither burst nor burst suddenly. The empirical testing of China's Beijing, Shanghai, Hebei and the national average house price bubble, can prove this conclusion, it is proved that the level of bubble existence does not depend on the absolute level of prices, and depending on whether the non stationarity deviates from the equilibrium real price.
【作者单位】：大连大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：辽宁省教育厅人文社会科学研究项目“经济新常态下辽宁省城市建设投融资体系构建研究”(W2015042) 大连大学优秀青年博士专项基金“房价滞涨对地方城市建设投融资模式的影响”(2014yw09)
【分类号】：F299.23
【正文快照】： 一、引言进入2016年,2015年年末涨势放缓的房价又一次开始快速上涨,全国平均房价仅2016年一季度同比上涨将近18%,二三季度同比上涨分别为10%和13%。北京和上海等实际房价较高城市的房价在一二三季度同比上涨均高于12%。(1)可见以限购为主的房价调控政策并未达到理想的效果。要

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